POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMICS

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

YES · live
78.5¢
NO · live
21.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
29.62%
max drawdown
1.63%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.25%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.16%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.63%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.39
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.39
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1832
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
78.5¢
NO · live
21.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.7765 · σ=0.0106 · range [0.7645, 0.7975] · R²=0.539▲ RISING +2.08%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.78450.79750.78930.78100.77270.7645μ = 0.7765max 0.7975min 0.7645dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 78.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 78.5%NO 21.5%YES78.5%78.50¢ · odds 1/1.27
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.751 / 1.00 bits (75%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
78.5%78.5¢1.27×▬ +0.00pp
NO
21.5%21.5¢4.65×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=540 · μ=22.5 · σ=67.9 · CV=3.02BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14083165248330μ = 2233050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 540bp moved · peak 330bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7ms
▲YES mid
78.50¢ (78.50%)
▼NO mid
21.50¢ (21.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$54.6k
≋liquidity $
$77.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7765 · σ=0.0106 · range [0.7645, 0.7975] · R²=0.539▲ RISING +2.08%σ NORMAL 1.37%LAST 0.78450.79750.78930.78100.77270.7645μ = 0.7765max 0.7975min 0.7645dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 78.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2235 · σ=0.0106 · range [0.2025, 0.2355] · R²=0.539▼ FALLING -6.91%σ NORMAL 4.76%LAST 0.21550.23550.22730.21900.21070.2025μ = 0.2235max 0.2355min 0.2025dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 21.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0067 · skew=4.15 (right-skewed) · kurt=16.62 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410503-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 15.8% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 15.8% peak19-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin -0.10pp · n=19 · 100.0% peak10.30ppbin 0.30pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 0.30pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak0.70pp1.10pp1.50pp1.90pp2.30pp2.70pp13.10ppbin 3.10pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 3.10pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=4.05 · kurt=16.23 · near 6 / mid 14 / far 4 · OLS slope=0.63 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.59σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.57)
μ MEAN77.65¢95% CI: [77.24¢, 78.07¢]
σ STD DEV1.06ppσ² = 1.130 · CV = 1.37%
med MEDIAN76.85¢Q₁ 76.85¢ · Q₃ 78.55¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.30pp · IQR 1.70pp (1.349σ→1.43pp)
min 76.45¢Q₁ 76.85¢med 76.85¢Q₃ 78.55¢max 79.75¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.371approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.569platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.76
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.84
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.10
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.218within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.044lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.912strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.181significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.912
H = 0.912STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.218k=2+0.044k=3-0.244k=4+0.027k=5-0.0070+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID616902
SLUGwill-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026
CATEGORYEconomics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (79¢)
PRIMARY · YES78.50¢implied prob 78.50% · decimal odds 1.27×
COUNTER · NO21.50¢implied prob 21.50% · decimal odds 4.65×
78.50¢
21.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME54.62k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY77.52k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (79¢)|primary − counter| = 0.570 · entropy 0.751 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 78.5%NO 21.5%YES p̂78.5%H = 0.751 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.27×(79¢)NO4.65×(22¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.751 bits (75% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
07hrs
52min
199.33 days·θ = 5.208 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 78.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 21.5%)
current: $0.7850 · expected return per side: $0.21 on YES hit · $0.79 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+99.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.06% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.208 pp/day
now199.33d left
5.208 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.50d left
6.014 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.66d left
7.365 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.83d left
10.416 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.93d left
16.470 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.30% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.22%MILD BULLISH +1.60%BEST+3.30%14hWORST-0.70%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.22%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.28% · Σ +2.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.60%+2.90%-0.40%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.40% · 11h-0.40% · 11h-0.40%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h3.30% · 14h3.30% · 14h3.30%14h★ BEST-0.70% · 15h-0.70% · 15h-0.70%15h▼ WORST0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h-0.45% · 17h-0.45% · 17h-0.45%17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.20% · 20h-0.20% · 20h-0.20%20h-0.05% · 21h-0.05% · 21h-0.05%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.20%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 25% down · 58% flat
4 up bars · 6 down · best 3.30% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.225%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.55%FINAL+1.55%MAX DD-1.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.89%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0155 · peak 1.0289 · range [0.9960, 1.0289]1.02890.9960break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0289UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.30% · moderate0%-1.30%▼ TROUGH -1.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.30%bar 16-25 · 10 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 12-14 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 10 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.0155 (1.55%) · max DD -1.30% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −8 (32% positive) · μ=-10.67 · σ=31.72UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -52.32 (-1.31σ vs μ)58.9029.450.00-29.45-58.90μ = -10.670.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.2132.5732.5723.4223.4224.5624.5623.9423.9424.5124.5124.5124.51-58.90-58.90-42.16-42.16-48.01-48.01-40.19-40.19-52.32-52.32v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -52.321 · range [-58.90, 32.57] · μ -10.668 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.7599 · σ=60.6263 · range [0.0000, 137.2290] · R²=0.071▬ FLATσ EXTREME 121.84%LAST 8.3714137.2290102.921868.614534.30730.0000μ = 49.7599max 137.2290min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 8.37% · range [0.00%, 137.23%] · μ 49.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −14 (0% positive) · μ=-0.203 · σ=0.181MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.375 (-0.95σ vs μ)0.5840.2920.000-0.292-0.584μ = -0.2030.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.004-0.004-0.327-0.327-0.330-0.330-0.333-0.333-0.323-0.323-0.206-0.206-0.470-0.470-0.584-0.584-0.237-0.237-0.161-0.161-0.375-0.375v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.375 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
495.1215
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.1427
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6806
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6558
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.2478
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0246
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6476
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0183
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5225
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.805 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.31e-5 · top T=2.00h (16.3%) · top-3 cover 41.0%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.0e-47.8e-55.2e-52.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 2.07e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.07e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.61e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.61e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.57e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.57e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.46e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.46e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.71e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.71e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.31e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.31e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.35e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.35e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.68e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.68e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.85e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.85e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.93e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.93e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.77e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.77e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 16.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 16.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.373e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1832 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 199.3 d · σ/bar 0.022pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.55ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1688 · n = 1832✓ n = 1832
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.022pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.11pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
1.55pp
σ × √4783.872978055556
Terminal variancebinary
0.1688
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
78.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1832
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.6pp
peak 79.8¢ → trough 78.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
78.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.274
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-365
risk $365 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.27 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$27.39
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 78.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.751 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.751 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.35 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.22 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
12403602920039269077597917340921667997547115084613238528792639013246536343316
NO token ID
21294592205022969346730955103773391901993330222644504059576935265667917187903
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:07:37 UTC
Snapshot age
7ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:07:37 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
47498bc9691f7c725d3410dd1aa4105475bbca7d9022df2e2e3f582ff0fd4eac · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,017.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.35

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Economics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$3.80K
bid $3.79K · ask $7
Depth within 50bp
$5.63K
bid $4.41K · ask $1.22K
Mid price
0.784500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
12.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.667
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.556
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.78699531.81bp0.7880004FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.798834182.71bp0.80900022FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9293681846.63bp0.99300085FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.7840006.37bp0.7840001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.775530114.33bp0.76600019FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0121769844.79bp0.001000268PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,832 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
37.40%
σ per bar = 0.000282
Mean return (annualised)
-1512.52%
μ per bar = -0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
-40.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.63%
peak 0.80 → trough 0.78 over 1261 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON