POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · # OF VIEWS OF NEXT MRBEAST VIDEO ON DAY 1?

Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-35-and-40-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932595 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
32.38%
max drawdown
97.22%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
93.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
91.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
97.22%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.05
upside/downside
roll spread
118.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-35-and-40-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932595/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0755 · σ=0.1103 · range [0.0005, 0.3700] · R²=0.681▼ FALLING -99.84%σ EXTREME 146.11%LAST 0.00050.37000.27760.18520.09290.0005μ = 0.0755max 0.3700min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=6,545 · μ=272.7 · σ=431.1 · CV=1.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=303637251,0881,450μ = 2731,45050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6545bp moved · peak 1450bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$50.5k
≋liquidity $
$47.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0755 · σ=0.1103 · range [0.0005, 0.3700] · R²=0.681▼ FALLING -99.84%σ EXTREME 146.11%LAST 0.00050.37000.27760.18520.09290.0005μ = 0.0755max 0.3700min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9245 · σ=0.1103 · range [0.6300, 0.9995] · R²=0.681▲ RISING +45.91%σ HIGH 11.93%LAST 0.99950.99950.90710.81480.72240.6300μ = 0.9245max 0.9995min 0.6300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0127 · σ=0.0475 · skew=-1.36 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.81 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107302-13.35ppbin -13.35pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -13.35pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak1-11.05ppbin -11.05pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -11.05pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-8.75pp-6.45pp-4.15pp6-1.85ppbin -1.85pp · n=6 · 46.2% peakbin -1.85pp · n=6 · 46.2% peak130.45ppbin 0.45pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.45pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak2.75pp15.05ppbin 5.05pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 5.05pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak17.35ppbin 7.35pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 7.35pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.18 · kurt=1.98 · near 7 / mid 17 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEFT-SKEWED · HEAVY NEGATIVE TAILUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.24)
μ MEAN7.55¢95% CI: [3.22¢, 11.87¢]
σ STD DEV11.03ppσ² = 121.620 · CV = 146.11%
med MEDIAN0.45¢Q₁ 0.05¢ · Q₃ 16.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 36.95pp · IQR 16.45pp (1.349σ→14.88pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 0.05¢med 0.45¢Q₃ 16.50¢max 37.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.245right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.318mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.64
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.35
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.020within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.398lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.828strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.000significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.828
H = 0.828STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.020k=2-0.398k=3+0.027k=4-0.112k=5+0.1560+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.68very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2471704
SLUGwill-mrbeasts-ne…608161932595
CATEGORY# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME50.47k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY47.25k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 8.50% · worst -14.50% · typical |Δ| 2.73%BEARISH SESSION -31.45%BEST+8.50%4hWORST-14.50%2hTYPICAL |Δ|2.73%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-31.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -2.14% · Σ -15.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -2.06% · Σ -16.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -31.45%+5.50%-31.45%5.50% · 1h5.50% · 1h5.50%1h-14.50% · 2h-14.50% · 2h-14.50%2h▼ WORST-13.00% · 3h-13.00% · 3h-13.00%3h8.50% · 4h8.50% · 4h8.50%4h★ BEST1.50% · 5h1.50% · 5h1.50%5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h-2.00% · 7h-2.00% · 7h-2.00%7h-10.00% · 8h-10.00% · 8h-10.00%8h-2.50% · 9h-2.50% · 9h-2.50%9h-1.60% · 10h-1.60% · 10h-1.60%10h-1.95% · 11h-1.95% · 11h-1.95%11h-0.30% · 12h-0.30% · 12h-0.30%12h1.40% · 13h1.40% · 13h1.40%13h-1.50% · 14h-1.50% · 14h-1.50%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h-0.10% · 17h-0.10% · 17h-0.10%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 7BREADTH21% up · 46% down · 33% flat
5 up bars · 11 down · best 8.50% · worst -14.50% · typical |Δ| 2.727%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -29.31%FINAL-29.31%MAX DD-33.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.50%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.7069 · peak 1.0550 · range [0.7069, 1.0550]1.05500.7069break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0550UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -33.00% · severe0%-33.00%▼ TROUGH -33.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -33.00%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -33.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.7069 (-29.31%) · max DD -33.00% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −15 (0% positive) · μ=-33.12 · σ=29.16UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+1.14σ vs μ)87.9143.960.00-43.96-87.91μ = -33.12-21.22-21.22-36.27-36.27-31.91-31.91-14.27-14.27-62.62-62.62-87.91-87.91-82.23-82.23-59.27-59.27-71.22-71.22-48.52-48.52-29.11-29.11-6.73-6.73-1.70-1.70-38.01-38.010.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-87.91, 0.00] · μ -33.116 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=263.0881 · σ=293.9697 · range [0.0000, 894.6351] · R²=0.835▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 111.74%LAST 0.0000894.6351670.9763447.3176223.65880.0000μ = 263.0881max 894.6351min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 894.64%] · μ 263.09% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −12 (26% positive) · μ=-0.123 · σ=0.251MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+0.49σ vs μ)0.5900.2950.000-0.295-0.590μ = -0.123-0.072-0.0720.1700.170-0.215-0.2150.2590.2590.0320.032-0.124-0.124-0.095-0.0950.1320.1320.1400.140-0.099-0.099-0.306-0.306-0.590-0.590-0.505-0.505-0.038-0.038-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.9695
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0009
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.7093
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3353
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2610
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1909
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0762
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9393
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7546
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0092
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7487
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4540
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.772 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.37e-3 · top T=6.00h (18.2%) · top-3 cover 51.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.2e-33.9e-32.6e-31.3e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.75e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.75e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.03e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.03e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.49e-3 · 8.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.49e-3 · 8.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.16e-3 · 18.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.16e-3 · 18.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.38e-3 · 15.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.38e-3 · 15.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.35e-3 · 11.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.35e-3 · 11.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.84e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.84e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.99e-3 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.99e-3 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.18e-3 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.18e-3 · 11.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.88e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.88e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.40e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.40e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.49e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.49e-4 · 1.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 18.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.841e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2123 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.127pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.31ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 2123✓ n = 2123
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.127pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.62pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.31pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.21pp · ES₉₅ 0.26pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.45pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2123
VaR 95%
0.21pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.26pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
99.0pp
peak 5.0¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.45pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
60496281721750642497103690851895777169884278793390791249160094065553056617454
NO token ID
64408408910211702807718061202147393576504275106588372292187651591423649411676
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:07:19 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:07:19 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4287c026878d91cd0f6c7964fc327e521d7f731fd70bf16c13487e315bc031d9 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.6¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,080HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.41

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-35-and-40-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932595/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,123 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
13673.04%
σ per bar = 0.103273
Mean return (annualised)
-90752.41%
μ per bar = -0.000518
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.64
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
98.99%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.00 over 250 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-35-and-40-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932595/risk · same metrics, JSON