POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · # OF VIEWS OF NEXT MRBEAST VIDEO ON DAY 1?

Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-30-and-35-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932594 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
18.43%
max drawdown
87.50%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
62.31%
RMS drawdown
pain index
51.56%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
87.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.13
upside/downside
roll spread
90.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
400
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-30-and-35-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932594/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2803 · σ=0.2655 · range [0.0005, 0.7100] · R²=0.782▼ FALLING -99.87%σ EXTREME 94.72%LAST 0.00050.71000.53260.35520.17790.0005μ = 0.2803max 0.7100min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=12,245 · μ=510.2 · σ=453.0 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=903507001,0501,400μ = 5101,40050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 12245bp moved · peak 1400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$37.5k
≋liquidity $
$49.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2803 · σ=0.2655 · range [0.0005, 0.7100] · R²=0.782▼ FALLING -99.87%σ EXTREME 94.72%LAST 0.00050.71000.53260.35520.17790.0005μ = 0.2803max 0.7100min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7195 · σ=0.2656 · range [0.2900, 0.9995] · R²=0.782▲ RISING +62.52%σ EXTREME 36.92%LAST 0.99950.99950.82210.64480.46740.2900μ = 0.7195max 0.9995min 0.2900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0160 · σ=0.0629 · skew=-0.05 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.45 (mesokurtic)864203-12.75ppbin -12.75pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -12.75pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak-10.25pp2-7.75ppbin -7.75pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -7.75pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak3-5.25ppbin -5.25pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -5.25pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak2-2.75ppbin -2.75pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -2.75pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak8-0.25ppbin -0.25pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.25pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak22.25ppbin 2.25pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 2.25pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak4.75pp27.25ppbin 7.25pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 7.25pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak29.75ppbin 9.75pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 9.75pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.06 · kurt=-0.42 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.59)
μ MEAN28.03¢95% CI: [17.62¢, 38.44¢]
σ STD DEV26.55ppσ² = 704.830 · CV = 94.72%
med MEDIAN19.00¢Q₁ 3.40¢ · Q₃ 55.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 70.95pp · IQR 52.10pp (1.349σ→35.81pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 3.40¢med 19.00¢Q₃ 55.50¢max 71.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.365approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.591platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.67
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.407within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.301lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.960strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.082significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.960
H = 0.960STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.407k=2+0.301k=3+0.251k=4+0.087k=5-0.0710+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2471703
SLUGwill-mrbeasts-ne…608161932594
CATEGORY# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME37.51k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY48.96k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 11.00% · worst -14.00% · typical |Δ| 5.10%BEARISH SESSION -38.45%BEST+11.00%4hWORST-14.00%10hTYPICAL |Δ|5.10%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-38.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +4.14% · Σ +29.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -6.88% · Σ -55.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -1.56% · Σ -12.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -38.45%+32.50%-38.45%10.50% · 1h10.50% · 1h10.50%1h8.00% · 2h8.00% · 2h8.00%2h3.00% · 3h3.00% · 3h3.00%3h11.00% · 4h11.00% · 4h11.00%4h★ BEST-5.50% · 5h-5.50% · 5h-5.50%5h2.50% · 6h2.50% · 6h2.50%6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h-12.00% · 8h-12.00% · 8h-12.00%8h-12.50% · 9h-12.50% · 9h-12.50%9h-14.00% · 10h-14.00% · 10h-14.00%10h▼ WORST-1.50% · 11h-1.50% · 11h-1.50%11h-8.50% · 12h-8.50% · 12h-8.50%12h-8.00% · 13h-8.00% · 13h-8.00%13h-5.50% · 14h-5.50% · 14h-5.50%14h7.00% · 15h7.00% · 15h7.00%15h-3.50% · 16h-3.50% · 16h-3.50%16h-5.00% · 17h-5.00% · 17h-5.00%17h-0.60% · 18h-0.60% · 18h-0.60%18h-0.40% · 19h-0.40% · 19h-0.40%19h-1.80% · 20h-1.80% · 20h-1.80%20h-0.80% · 21h-0.80% · 21h-0.80%21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+29.00%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 8BREADTH25% up · 71% down · 4% flat
6 up bars · 17 down · best 11.00% · worst -14.00% · typical |Δ| 5.102%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -35.68%FINAL-35.68%MAX DD-52.86%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+36.44%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.6432 · peak 1.3644 · range [0.6432, 1.3644]1.36440.6432break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.3644UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -52.86% · severe0%-52.86%▼ TROUGH -52.86%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -52.86%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -52.86%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.6432 (-35.68%) · max DD -52.86% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-63.84 · σ=65.80UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -78.04 (-0.22σ vs μ)194.4697.230.00-97.23-194.46μ = -63.8473.5573.5548.9648.96-2.97-2.97-29.29-29.29-94.76-94.76-81.53-81.53-130.77-130.77-194.46-194.46-170.74-170.74-66.14-66.14-54.59-54.59-64.66-64.66-45.94-45.94-27.06-27.06-16.09-16.09-101.62-101.62-76.21-76.21-100.70-100.70-78.04-78.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -78.038 · range [-194.46, 73.55] · μ -63.844 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=472.0152 · σ=222.5259 · range [57.2703, 847.3653] · R²=0.695▼ FALLING -89.30%σ EXTREME 47.14%LAST 62.6748847.3653649.8416452.3178254.794157.2703μ = 472.0152max 847.3653min 57.2703dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.67% · range [57.27%, 847.37%] · μ 472.02% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.041 · σ=0.213CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.190 (+1.08σ vs μ)0.4580.2290.000-0.229-0.458μ = -0.041-0.197-0.197-0.356-0.356-0.112-0.1120.0700.0700.4580.4580.2410.241-0.167-0.167-0.055-0.055-0.147-0.147-0.147-0.1470.0040.0040.0750.075-0.167-0.167-0.440-0.440-0.119-0.1190.1800.180-0.115-0.1150.0280.0280.1900.190v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.190 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0636
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9687
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.3464
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.1919
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9335
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-2.1724
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0298
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7783
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0080
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
2.1820
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0291
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 1.664 → trending
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.33e-3 · top T=24.00h (38.2%) · top-3 cover 68.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-21.5e-29.9e-35.0e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.98e-2 · 38.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.98e-2 · 38.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.20e-2 · 23.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.20e-2 · 23.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.37e-4 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.37e-4 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.63e-4 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.63e-4 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.02e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.02e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.56e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.56e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.33e-3 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.33e-3 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.12e-3 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.12e-3 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.72e-3 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.72e-3 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.00e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.00e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.46e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.46e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 0.9% energy50% by T=12.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 38.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.200e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (400 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.014pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 400✓ n = 400
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.014pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.03pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 400
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
87.5pp
peak 0.4¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
24377039478094054950373790974314978665344388964077496985100535082778990489004
NO token ID
62145181359907654565733874141799136055948011805916813865994566332683650995903
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:07:04 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:07:04 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e6ae177caeff91e0e1c86683abe916a24d9bfe7de5eeec52f44bd2fcac09d48f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-30-and-35-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932594/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 400 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
9829.89%
σ per bar = 0.074243
Mean return (annualised)
-913601.98%
μ per bar = -0.005212
Sharpe (rf=0)
-92.94
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
87.50%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 265 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-30-and-35-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932594/risk · same metrics, JSON