POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · # OF VIEWS OF NEXT MRBEAST VIDEO ON DAY 1?

Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?

YES · live
100.0¢
NO · live
0.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932593 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
666.26%
max drawdown
11.56%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.37%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
9.24%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.92
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.92
upside/downside
roll spread
2.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932593/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
100.0¢
NO · live
0.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5911 · σ=0.3694 · range [0.0550, 0.9995] · R²=0.881▲ RISING +455.28%σ EXTREME 62.50%LAST 0.99950.99950.76340.52720.29110.0550μ = 0.5911max 0.9995min 0.0550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 99.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 100.0%NO 0.1%YES100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=17,105 · μ=712.7 · σ=702.7 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=906001,2001,8002,400μ = 7132,40050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 17105bp moved · peak 2400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
▼NO mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$47.7k
≋liquidity $
$23.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5911 · σ=0.3694 · range [0.0550, 0.9995] · R²=0.881▲ RISING +455.28%σ EXTREME 62.50%LAST 0.99950.99950.76340.52720.29110.0550μ = 0.5911max 0.9995min 0.0550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4089 · σ=0.3694 · range [0.0005, 0.9450] · R²=0.881▼ FALLING -99.94%σ EXTREME 90.35%LAST 0.00050.94500.70890.47270.23660.0005μ = 0.4089max 0.9450min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.88μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0346 · σ=0.0932 · skew=0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.28 (mesokurtic)754201-16.37ppbin -16.37pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -16.37pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-12.12pp2-7.87ppbin -7.87pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -7.87pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak4-3.62ppbin -3.62pp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -3.62pp · n=4 · 57.1% peak70.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 0.63pp · n=7 · 100.0% peak24.88ppbin 4.88pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 4.88pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak39.13ppbin 9.13pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 9.13pp · n=3 · 42.9% peak213.38ppbin 13.38pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 13.38pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak117.63ppbin 17.63pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 17.63pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak221.87ppbin 21.87pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 21.87pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.20 · kurt=0.29 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.68)
μ MEAN59.11¢95% CI: [44.63¢, 73.59¢]
σ STD DEV36.94ppσ² = 1364.809 · CV = 62.50%
med MEDIAN68.00¢Q₁ 18.50¢ · Q₃ 96.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 94.45pp · IQR 78.00pp (1.349σ→49.84pp)
min 5.50¢Q₁ 18.50¢med 68.00¢Q₃ 96.50¢max 99.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.262approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.677platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.24
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.64
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.56
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.010within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.117lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.965strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+13.056significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.965
H = 0.965STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.010k=2-0.117k=3+0.252k=4-0.178k=5-0.2260+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.06)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.94very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=13.06)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2471702
SLUGwill-mrbeasts-ne…608161932593
CATEGORY# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
COUNTER · NO0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
99.95¢
0.05¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME47.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY23.83k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 100.0%NO 0.1%YES p̂100.0%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.00×(100¢)NO2000.00×(0¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 24.00% · worst -18.50% · typical |Δ| 7.13%BULLISH SESSION +81.95%BEST+24.00%8hWORST-18.50%4hTYPICAL |Δ|7.13%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+81.95%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.64% · Σ -11.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +9.88% · Σ +79.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.81% · Σ +14.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +81.95%+81.95%-12.50%-7.50% · 1h-7.50% · 1h-7.50%1h8.00% · 2h8.00% · 2h8.00%2h10.00% · 3h10.00% · 3h10.00%3h-18.50% · 4h-18.50% · 4h-18.50%4h▼ WORST-2.50% · 5h-2.50% · 5h-2.50%5h-2.00% · 6h-2.00% · 6h-2.00%6h1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h24.00% · 8h24.00% · 8h24.00%8h★ BEST21.50% · 9h21.50% · 9h21.50%9h-3.00% · 10h-3.00% · 10h-3.00%10h11.50% · 11h11.50% · 11h11.50%11h15.50% · 12h15.50% · 12h15.50%12h-8.00% · 13h-8.00% · 13h-8.00%13h12.50% · 14h12.50% · 14h12.50%14h5.00% · 15h5.00% · 15h5.00%15h5.50% · 16h5.50% · 16h5.50%16h-3.05% · 17h-3.05% · 17h-3.05%17h8.55% · 18h8.55% · 18h8.55%18h0.90% · 19h0.90% · 19h0.90%19h1.10% · 20h1.10% · 20h1.10%20h1.10% · 21h1.10% · 21h1.10%21h0.35% · 22h0.35% · 22h0.35%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+79.00%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH63% up · 29% down · 8% flat
15 up bars · 7 down · best 24.00% · worst -18.50% · typical |Δ| 7.127%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +103.13%FINAL+103.13%MAX DD-22.13%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+103.13%UNDERWATER10/25 (40%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 2.0313 · peak 2.0313 · range [0.8557, 2.0313]2.03130.8557break-even = 1★ PEAK 2.0313UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -22.13% · severe0%-22.13%▼ TROUGH -22.13%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -22.13%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -8.00%bar 14-14 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -7.50%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -22.13%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER40% of session · 10/25 bars
final equity 2.0313 (103.13%) · max DD -22.13% · time-under-water 10/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +17 / −2 (89% positive) · μ=52.51 · σ=32.55PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 102.86 (+1.55σ vs μ)102.8651.430.00-51.43-102.86μ = 52.51-18.65-18.65-6.15-6.1513.2013.2022.7422.7447.9547.9569.0769.07101.04101.0473.4373.4368.5568.5555.7255.7277.8677.8647.9147.9142.1542.1583.5583.5567.8367.8354.0754.0736.6936.6957.7957.79102.86102.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 102.859 · range [-18.65, 102.86] · μ 52.505 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=820.0645 · σ=396.3977 · range [48.9699, 1509.0027] · R²=0.782▼ FALLING -95.00%σ EXTREME 48.34%LAST 48.96991509.00271143.9945778.9863413.978148.9699μ = 820.0645max 1509.0027min 48.9699dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 48.97% · range [48.97%, 1509.00%] · μ 820.06% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.232 · σ=0.348MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.576 (+2.32σ vs μ)0.6780.3390.000-0.339-0.678μ = -0.232-0.227-0.227-0.126-0.126-0.071-0.0710.3800.3800.1830.183-0.032-0.032-0.259-0.259-0.117-0.117-0.537-0.537-0.511-0.511-0.508-0.508-0.602-0.602-0.461-0.461-0.316-0.316-0.600-0.600-0.678-0.678-0.489-0.489-0.012-0.0120.5760.576v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.576 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6124
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7362
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.9445
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4234
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6187
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8584
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2768
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7820
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8582
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0052
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0671
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9465
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.980 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.73e-3 · top T=3.00h (28.8%) · top-3 cover 53.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-22.3e-21.5e-27.6e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.58e-2 · 15.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.58e-2 · 15.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.50e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.50e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.30e-3 · 7.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.30e-3 · 7.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-2 · 9.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.04e-2 · 9.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.24e-3 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.24e-3 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.05e-3 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.05e-3 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.21e-3 · 8.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.21e-3 · 8.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.02e-2 · 28.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.02e-2 · 28.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.67e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.67e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.20e-3 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.20e-3 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.18e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.18e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.03e-3 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.03e-3 · 1.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 28.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.048e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2230 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.566pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.39ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 2230✓ n = 2230
μ per bar
+0.013pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.566pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.77pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.39pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
100.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.92pp · ES₉₅ 1.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.013pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 2230
VaR 95%
0.92pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
14.5pp
peak 76.0¢ → trough 65.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
100.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.001
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-199900
risk $199900 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$0.05
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 100.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.00 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
10.97 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
87330798210418887811018165930807812668482401568104409780976758354950719537509
NO token ID
76131870605094725883641928763413986624462999376551879786718880843120894470394
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:07:09 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:07:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
301fe55eb95cd65aa4ceac91d69df943d14915e3c0d58f06b9944450379d07c9 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.6¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,092.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.35HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.41

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+1.000
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+1.000
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932593/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,230 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
988.77%
σ per bar = 0.007468
Mean return (annualised)
26894.45%
μ per bar = 0.000153
Sharpe (rf=0)
27.20
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
14.47%
peak 0.76 → trough 0.65 over 100 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-25-and-30-million-views-on-day-1-20260608161932593/risk · same metrics, JSON