POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
2.3¢
NO · live
97.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-lamine-yamal-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.27%
realized vol (ann.)
50.83%
max drawdown
38.36%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
26.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
24.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
37.12%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.27%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +2.27%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-lamine-yamal-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.3¢
NO · live
97.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0242 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.0175, 0.0365] · R²=0.047▲ RISING +27.50%σ EXTREME 20.40%LAST 0.02550.03650.03180.02700.02220.0175μ = 0.0242max 0.0365min 0.0175dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.55¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.3%NO 97.8%NO97.8%97.75¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.155 / 1.00 bits (16%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.3%2.3¢44.44×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.8%97.8¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=815 · μ=34.0 · σ=42.8 · CV=1.26BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1304795142190μ = 3419050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 815bp moved · peak 190bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.4s
▲YES mid
2.25¢ (2.25%)
▼NO mid
97.75¢ (97.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$52.0k
≋liquidity $
$58.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0242 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.0175, 0.0365] · R²=0.047▲ RISING +27.50%σ EXTREME 20.40%LAST 0.02550.03650.03180.02700.02220.0175μ = 0.0242max 0.0365min 0.0175dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.55¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9758 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.9635, 0.9825] · R²=0.047▼ FALLING -0.56%σ LOW 0.51%LAST 0.97450.98250.97780.97300.96830.9635μ = 0.9758max 0.9825min 0.9635dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.45¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0054 · skew=1.84 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.27 (leptokurtic (fat tails))653206-0.47ppbin -0.47pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -0.47pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak6-0.22ppbin -0.22pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -0.22pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak60.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak30.28ppbin 0.28pp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 0.28pp · n=3 · 50.0% peak10.52ppbin 0.52pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 0.52pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak0.78pp1.02pp11.27ppbin 1.27pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 1.27pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak1.52pp11.77ppbin 1.77pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 1.77pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.05 · kurt=4.31 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.90 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.68)
μ MEAN2.42¢95% CI: [2.23¢, 2.61¢]
σ STD DEV0.49ppσ² = 0.244 · CV = 20.40%
med MEDIAN2.40¢Q₁ 2.15¢ · Q₃ 2.60¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.90pp · IQR 0.45pp (1.349σ→0.67pp)
min 1.75¢Q₁ 2.15¢med 2.40¢Q₃ 2.60¢max 3.65¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.684right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.068mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.48
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.85
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.172within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.174lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.860strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.068fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.860
H = 0.860STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.172k=2-0.174k=3-0.206k=4+0.069k=5+0.0750+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.07)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.07)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069640
SLUGwill-lamine-yama…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.25¢implied prob 2.25% · decimal odds 44.44×
COUNTER · NO97.75¢implied prob 97.75% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.25¢
97.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME51.97k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY58.75k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.955 · entropy 0.155 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.3%NO 97.8%YES p̂2.3%H = 0.155 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES44.44×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.155 bits (16% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
31days
11hrs
42min
31.49 days·θ = 2.419 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.8%)
current: $0.0225 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+15.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.49% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.419 pp/day
now31.49d left
2.419 pp/day×1.00
−25%23.62d left
2.793 pp/day×1.15
−50%15.74d left
3.421 pp/day×1.41
−75%7.87d left
4.837 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.15d left
7.649 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.90% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.34%MILD BULLISH +0.55%BEST+1.90%17hWORST-0.60%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.55%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.55%+1.65%-0.25%-0.15% · 1h-0.15% · 1h-0.15%1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.60% · 3h0.60% · 3h0.60%3h0.25% · 4h0.25% · 4h0.25%4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h0.15% · 6h0.15% · 6h0.15%6h-0.10% · 7h-0.10% · 7h-0.10%7h1.20% · 8h1.20% · 8h1.20%8h-0.35% · 9h-0.35% · 9h-0.35%9h-0.25% · 10h-0.25% · 10h-0.25%10h-0.40% · 11h-0.40% · 11h-0.40%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.15% · 13h-0.15% · 13h-0.15%13h-0.40% · 14h-0.40% · 14h-0.40%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h1.90% · 17h1.90% · 17h1.90%17h★ BEST-0.60% · 18h-0.60% · 18h-0.60%18h▼ WORST-0.45% · 19h-0.45% · 19h-0.45%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h-0.15% · 22h-0.15% · 22h-0.15%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.25% · 24h0.25% · 24h0.25%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.55%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH25% up · 58% down · 17% flat
6 up bars · 14 down · best 1.90% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.340%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.52%FINAL+0.52%MAX DD-1.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.63%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0052 · peak 1.0163 · range [0.9974, 1.0163]1.01630.9974break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0163UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.64% · moderate0%-1.64%▼ TROUGH -1.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.64%bar 10-17 · 8 bars · recovered#2 -1.34%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.50%bar 6-8 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0052 (0.52%) · max DD -1.64% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=-16.25 · σ=54.47PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -33.67 (-0.32σ vs μ)151.6675.830.00-75.83-151.66μ = -16.2512.4612.4614.7314.7342.5742.5716.7316.733.793.796.496.492.602.601.301.30-151.66-151.66-124.18-124.18-89.16-89.1623.1723.1711.2111.215.875.8712.9412.9412.0412.049.409.40-85.44-85.44-33.67-33.67v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -33.668 · range [-151.66, 42.57] · μ -16.253 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=52.9143 · σ=26.5110 · range [14.9215, 87.0189] · R²=0.043▼ FALLING -38.31%σ EXTREME 50.10%LAST 21.682387.018968.994550.970232.945814.9215μ = 52.9143max 87.0189min 14.9215dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 21.68% · range [14.92%, 87.02%] · μ 52.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.184 · σ=0.155MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.035 (+0.96σ vs μ)0.4620.2310.000-0.231-0.462μ = -0.184-0.128-0.128-0.186-0.186-0.118-0.118-0.462-0.462-0.297-0.297-0.216-0.216-0.199-0.199-0.124-0.124-0.204-0.204-0.396-0.396-0.263-0.2630.0540.054-0.294-0.294-0.209-0.209-0.243-0.243-0.239-0.239-0.179-0.1790.2410.241-0.035-0.035v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.035 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
51.3257
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.2594
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6627
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.1688
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0226
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3317
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7401
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1281
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4824
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9602
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3369
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.708 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.91e-5 · top T=4.80h (20.5%) · top-3 cover 50.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.2e-55.4e-53.6e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.61e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.61e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.90e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.90e-5 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.68e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.68e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.17e-5 · 20.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.17e-5 · 20.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.09e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.09e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.81e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.81e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.22e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.22e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 20.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.489e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 31.5 d · σ/bar 0.035pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.97ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0220 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.035pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.17pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move31d
0.97pp
σ × √755.7020338888889
Terminal variancebinary
0.0220
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
50.0pp
peak 3.5¢ → trough 1.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
44.444
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4344
$100 wins $4344
FractionalUK
43.44 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4344.44
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.155 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.155 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.47 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
12443507708490579267303275816299242973522539389954129092471837019475810226676
NO token ID
10760815429699691381695504816880542259042826089637710920079824881593757928179
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:17:48 UTC
Snapshot age
4.4s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:17:52 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c10d18c04d69c0226090a6b4b077b3e7ecb41815e31ab34ff6a40f2bc1f3b69b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,987HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.85HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,744.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.026500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3396.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.988
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.544
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-lamine-yamal-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.07298017539.79bp0.18000026FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.335728116689.63bp0.80000055FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.788150287414.99bp0.95900067FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0062067657.95bp0.00100021PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0062067657.95bp0.00100021PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0062067657.95bp0.00100021PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1845.76%
σ per bar = 0.013943
Mean return (annualised)
-5736.10%
μ per bar = -0.000033
Sharpe (rf=0)
-3.11
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
50.00%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.02 over 1285 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-lamine-yamal-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON