POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
0.3¢
NO · live
99.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-jude-bellingham-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -60.00%
realized vol (ann.)
9.12%
max drawdown
45.45%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
28.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
22.24%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
45.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
4.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-60.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -60.00%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-jude-bellingham-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.3¢
NO · live
99.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.0030, 0.0075] · R²=0.811▼ FALLING -53.85%σ EXTREME 29.03%LAST 0.00300.00750.00640.00520.00410.0030μ = 0.0055max 0.0075min 0.0030dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.30¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.3%NO 99.7%NO99.7%99.70¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.029 / 1.00 bits (3%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.3%0.3¢333.33×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.7%99.7¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=125 · μ=5.2 · σ=6.8 · CV=1.31BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1006121925μ = 52550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 125bp moved · peak 25bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.7s
▲YES mid
0.30¢ (0.30%)
▼NO mid
99.70¢ (99.70%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$57.1k
≋liquidity $
$55.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0055 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.0030, 0.0075] · R²=0.811▼ FALLING -53.85%σ EXTREME 29.03%LAST 0.00300.00750.00640.00520.00410.0030μ = 0.0055max 0.0075min 0.0030dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.30¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9945 · σ=0.0016 · range [0.9925, 0.9970] · R²=0.811▲ RISING +0.35%σ LOW 0.16%LAST 0.99700.99700.99590.99480.99360.9925μ = 0.9945max 0.9970min 0.9925dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.70¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0008 · skew=-0.98 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.90 (mesokurtic)1296301-0.23ppbin -0.23pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.23pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-0.19pp2-0.15ppbin -0.15pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -0.15pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak1-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.11pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak1-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.07pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak2-0.03ppbin -0.03pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -0.03pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak120.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak20.05ppbin 0.05pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 0.05pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak20.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 0.09pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak10.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.77 · kurt=1.21 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.33)
μ MEAN0.55¢95% CI: [0.49¢, 0.61¢]
σ STD DEV0.16ppσ² = 0.025 · CV = 29.03%
med MEDIAN0.50¢Q₁ 0.45¢ · Q₃ 0.70¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.45pp · IQR 0.25pp (1.349σ→0.21pp)
min 0.30¢Q₁ 0.45¢med 0.50¢Q₃ 0.70¢max 0.75¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.114approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.329platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.86
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.83
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.339within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.012lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.788strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.922significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.788
H = 0.788STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.339k=2-0.012k=3+0.002k=4-0.187k=5+0.1110+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.92)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.91very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.92)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069639
SLUGwill-jude-bellin…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.30¢implied prob 0.30% · decimal odds 333.33×
COUNTER · NO99.70¢implied prob 99.70% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.30¢
99.70¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME57.06k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY55.19k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.994 · entropy 0.029 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.3%NO 99.7%YES p̂0.3%H = 0.029 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES333.33×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.029 bits (3% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
31days
11hrs
42min
31.49 days·θ = 0.779 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.7%)
current: $0.0030 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+15.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.16% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.779 pp/day
now31.49d left
0.779 pp/day×1.00
−25%23.62d left
0.900 pp/day×1.15
−50%15.74d left
1.102 pp/day×1.41
−75%7.87d left
1.559 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.15d left
2.465 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.15% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.05%MILD BEARISH -0.35%BEST+0.15%16hWORST-0.25%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.35%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.35%+0.10%-0.35%0.10% · 1h0.10% · 1h0.10%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.10% · 4h-0.10% · 4h-0.10%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.10% · 6h0.10% · 6h0.10%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h-0.25% · 10h-0.25% · 10h-0.25%10h▼ WORST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h-0.15% · 15h-0.15% · 15h-0.15%15h0.15% · 16h0.15% · 16h0.15%16h★ BEST-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.10%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 29% down · 50% flat
5 up bars · 7 down · best 0.15% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.052%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.35%)FINAL-0.35%MAX DD-0.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.10%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9965 · peak 1.0010 · range [0.9965, 1.0010]1.00100.9965break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0010UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.45% · shallow0%-0.45%▼ TROUGH -0.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.45%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9965 (-0.35%) · max DD -0.45% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −14 (11% positive) · μ=-19.25 · σ=22.15UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.21 (-0.86σ vs μ)66.7233.360.00-33.36-66.72μ = -19.2520.7220.720.000.00-11.74-11.740.000.00-19.27-19.27-19.27-19.27-36.50-36.50-36.50-36.50-20.72-20.72-47.14-47.148.048.040.000.00-7.64-7.64-7.64-7.64-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-66.72-66.72-51.52-51.52-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-66.72, 20.72] · μ -19.254 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=8.5668 · σ=2.0720 · range [5.4708, 11.3671] · R²=0.015▼ FALLING -18.65%σ EXTREME 24.19%LAST 5.731511.36719.89308.41896.94495.4708μ = 8.5668max 11.3671min 5.4708dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 5.73% · range [5.47%, 11.37%] · μ 8.57% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −17 (5% positive) · μ=-0.332 · σ=0.251MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.233 (+0.39σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.3320.0490.0490.0000.000-0.003-0.003-0.100-0.100-0.178-0.178-0.297-0.297-0.476-0.476-0.439-0.439-0.304-0.304-0.119-0.119-0.621-0.621-0.750-0.750-0.673-0.673-0.689-0.689-0.557-0.557-0.144-0.144-0.443-0.443-0.333-0.333-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.9442
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0512
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.6156
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4657
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9041
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7874
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.9780
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0479
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8334
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5914
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1115
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.516 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.98e-7 · top T=2.67h (27.6%) · top-3 cover 59.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.3e-61.7e-61.2e-65.8e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.06e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.06e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.32e-7 · 5.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.32e-7 · 5.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.22e-7 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.22e-7 · 5.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 13.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 13.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.73e-7 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.73e-7 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.27e-6 · 15.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.27e-6 · 15.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.31e-6 · 27.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.31e-6 · 27.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.01e-7 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.01e-7 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.41e-6 · 16.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.41e-6 · 16.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 27.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.375e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4464 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 31.5 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.18ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0030 · n = 4464✓ n = 4464
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.007pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move31d
0.18pp
σ × √755.7122375
Terminal variancebinary
0.0030
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 4464
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
60.0pp
peak 0.8¢ → trough 0.3¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
333.333
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+33233
$100 wins $33233
FractionalUK
332.33 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$33233.33
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.029 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.029 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
21681578411954970343236802028806118171644822229289954494018054365027453603503
NO token ID
3133218930138833652074929460361825158657768376381171777896493255035034123450
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:17:12 UTC
Snapshot age
3.7s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:17:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ff9ad6bca0a7723d91453c9e75ac62ca039e70e6b6aeba9b7053893e6fa8d844 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,970HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.85HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,744

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.003000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.991
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.310
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-jude-bellingham-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.02895586518.17bp0.19600033FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.202240664133.07bp0.88800050FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6975332315108.52bp0.98000060FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010486506.04bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010486506.04bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010486506.04bp0.0010002PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,464 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1767.52%
σ per bar = 0.013352
Mean return (annualised)
-33269.61%
μ per bar = -0.000190
Sharpe (rf=0)
-18.82
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
60.00%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.00 over 3858 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-jude-bellingham-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON