POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL HAMAS AGREE TO DISARM BY...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

YES · live
5.3¢
NO · live
94.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30 · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
65.91%
max drawdown
19.69%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
14.31%
RMS drawdown
pain index
13.19%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
19.09%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.72
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.72
upside/downside
roll spread
5.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
703
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.3¢
NO · live
94.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0545 · σ=0.0078 · range [0.0380, 0.0685] · R²=0.142▲ RISING +31.25%σ HIGH 14.36%LAST 0.05250.06850.06090.05330.04560.0380μ = 0.0545max 0.0685min 0.0380dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 5.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 5.3%NO 94.7%NO94.7%94.65¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.301 / 1.00 bits (30%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
5.3%5.3¢18.69×▬ +0.00pp
NO
94.7%94.7¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,065 · μ=44.4 · σ=83.8 · CV=1.89BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=5076153229305μ = 4430550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1065bp moved · peak 305bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.2s
▲YES mid
5.35¢ (5.35%)
▼NO mid
94.65¢ (94.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$28.9k
≋liquidity $
$37.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0545 · σ=0.0078 · range [0.0380, 0.0685] · R²=0.142▲ RISING +31.25%σ HIGH 14.36%LAST 0.05250.06850.06090.05330.04560.0380μ = 0.0545max 0.0685min 0.0380dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9454 · σ=0.0078 · range [0.9315, 0.9620] · R²=0.153▼ FALLING -1.46%σ LOW 0.83%LAST 0.94600.96200.95440.94670.93910.9315μ = 0.9454max 0.9620min 0.9315dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.60¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0089 · skew=-0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=4.21 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-2.76ppbin -2.76pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -2.76pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-2.18pp-1.60pp1-1.02ppbin -1.02pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -1.02pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak3-0.44ppbin -0.44pp · n=3 · 17.6% peakbin -0.44pp · n=3 · 17.6% peak170.14ppbin 0.14pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin 0.14pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak0.72pp1.30pp11.88ppbin 1.88pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 1.88pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak12.46ppbin 2.46pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 2.46pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.36 · kurt=5.48 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.84 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.63)
μ MEAN5.45¢95% CI: [5.14¢, 5.76¢]
σ STD DEV0.78ppσ² = 0.613 · CV = 14.36%
med MEDIAN5.55¢Q₁ 5.40¢ · Q₃ 5.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.05pp · IQR 0.40pp (1.349σ→1.06pp)
min 3.80¢Q₁ 5.40¢med 5.55¢Q₃ 5.80¢max 6.85¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.631left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.001mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.64
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.90
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.262within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.411lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT1.092strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.954fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.092
H = 1.092STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1-0.262k=2 ★-0.411k=3+0.241k=4-0.010k=5-0.0060+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.95)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.95)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1294921
SLUGwill-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30
CATEGORYWill Hamas agree to disarm by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES5.35¢implied prob 5.35% · decimal odds 18.69×
COUNTER · NO94.65¢implied prob 94.65% · decimal odds 1.06×
5.35¢
94.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME28.92k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY37.08k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.893 · entropy 0.301 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 5.3%NO 94.7%YES p̂5.3%H = 0.301 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES18.69×(5¢)NO1.06×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.301 bits (30% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 20:00 UTC
12days
09hrs
02min
12.38 days·θ = 3.834 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 5.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 94.7%)
current: $0.0535 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.78% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.834 pp/day
now12.38d left
3.834 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.28d left
4.427 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.19d left
5.422 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.09d left
7.668 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.24d left
12.124 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.75% · worst -3.05% · typical |Δ| 0.44%MILD BULLISH +1.25%BEST+2.75%3hWORST-3.05%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.44%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.20% · Σ +1.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.30%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.25%+2.85%-0.20%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h2.75% · 3h2.75% · 3h2.75%3h★ BEST0.10% · 4h0.10% · 4h0.10%4h-3.05% · 5h-3.05% · 5h-3.05%5h▼ WORST1.65% · 6h1.65% · 6h1.65%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.05% · 8h0.05% · 8h0.05%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.10% · 13h0.10% · 13h0.10%13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h0.25% · 17h0.25% · 17h0.25%17h-0.20% · 18h-0.20% · 18h-0.20%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h-0.85% · 21h-0.85% · 21h-0.85%21h-0.20% · 22h-0.20% · 22h-0.20%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h-0.35% · 24h-0.35% · 24h-0.35%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.40%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH50% up · 25% down · 25% flat
12 up bars · 6 down · best 2.75% · worst -3.05% · typical |Δ| 0.444%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.15%FINAL+1.15%MAX DD-3.05%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.85%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0115 · peak 1.0285 · range [0.9972, 1.0285]1.02850.9972break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0285UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.05% · moderate0%-3.05%▼ TROUGH -3.05%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.05%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.05%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0115 (1.15%) · max DD -3.05% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=29.72 · σ=41.69PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -20.23 (-1.20σ vs μ)111.0655.530.00-55.53-111.06μ = 29.7211.5311.5311.1211.1211.5311.53-13.22-13.22-14.27-14.2740.9040.9030.2130.2179.3379.3379.3379.3379.3379.33111.06111.0683.7883.7831.5531.5541.4041.4050.0250.02-11.00-11.00-22.18-22.18-15.59-15.59-20.23-20.23v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.232 · range [-22.18, 111.06] · μ 29.715 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=60.1440 · σ=68.7900 · range [4.6011, 183.7577] · R²=0.477▼ FALLING -76.42%σ EXTREME 114.38%LAST 43.2971183.7577138.968594.179449.39024.6011μ = 60.1440max 183.7577min 4.6011dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 43.30% · range [4.60%, 183.76%] · μ 60.14% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.335 · σ=0.202MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.187 (+0.73σ vs μ)0.6390.3200.000-0.320-0.639μ = -0.335-0.264-0.264-0.287-0.287-0.253-0.253-0.491-0.491-0.409-0.409-0.076-0.076-0.396-0.396-0.489-0.489-0.420-0.420-0.592-0.592-0.592-0.5920.0510.051-0.386-0.386-0.639-0.639-0.561-0.561-0.160-0.160-0.107-0.107-0.103-0.103-0.187-0.187v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.187 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
51.1762
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.3697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1358
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.0893
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0014
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5510
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5817
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3731
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0887
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9392
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0525
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.410 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.70e-5 · top T=3.43h (20.5%) · top-3 cover 58.3%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.1e-45.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.94e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.94e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.12e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.12e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.08e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.08e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.04e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.04e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.11e-4 · 20.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.11e-4 · 20.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.14e-4 · 20.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.14e-4 · 20.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.98e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.98e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.84e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.84e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.10e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.10e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.12e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.12e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.76e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.76e-6 · 0.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 20.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.045e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (730 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 12.4 d · σ/bar 0.184pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.17ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0506 · n = 730✓ n = 730
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.184pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.90pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move12d
3.17pp
σ × √297.0469194444445
Terminal variancebinary
0.0506
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.30pp · ES₉₅ 0.38pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 730
VaR 95%
0.30pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.38pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
51.7pp
peak 10.5¢ → trough 5.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
5.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
18.692
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1769
$100 wins $1769
FractionalUK
17.69 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1769.16
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 5.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.301 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.301 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.22 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.08 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
63234707295320507667894309258849048700632767113302157839265845777836046390818
NO token ID
104300001201805258182759143424803769933769056146338425343674625200737172871170
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 10:57:05 UTC
Snapshot age
5.2s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 10:57:11 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
205ff1e5662daa25e1cf1e3d0397ccf2874c961a516be4f3c30511c488e6568a · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.6¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,129HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$72.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,749.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.054000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.171
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.781
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1015388803.26bp0.19900019FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.36956658438.07bp0.59300042FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.746865128308.31bp0.96900068FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0028319475.70bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0028319475.70bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0028319475.70bp0.00100026PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 730 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3052.85%
σ per bar = 0.023061
Mean return (annualised)
-52291.95%
μ per bar = -0.000298
Sharpe (rf=0)
-17.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
51.66%
peak 0.11 → trough 0.05 over 249 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30/risk · same metrics, JSON