POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CRYPTO

Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?

YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
98.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-ethereum-reach-1800-june-8-14-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -55.77%
realized vol (ann.)
32.92%
max drawdown
58.93%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
47.67%
RMS drawdown
pain index
44.74%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
58.93%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.41
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.41
upside/downside
roll spread
10.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-55.77%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -55.77%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-ethereum-reach-1800-june-8-14-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.1¢
NO · live
98.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0246 · σ=0.0097 · range [0.0115, 0.0365] · R²=0.689▼ FALLING -50.00%σ EXTREME 39.27%LAST 0.01300.03650.03020.02400.01770.0115μ = 0.0246max 0.0365min 0.0115dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.30¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.1%NO 98.9%NO98.9%98.85¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.091 / 1.00 bits (9%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.1%1.1¢86.96×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.9%98.9¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=510 · μ=21.2 · σ=22.9 · CV=1.08BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12021426485μ = 218550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 510bp moved · peak 85bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9ms
▲YES mid
1.15¢ (1.15%)
▼NO mid
98.85¢ (98.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$26.4k
≋liquidity $
$18.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0246 · σ=0.0097 · range [0.0115, 0.0365] · R²=0.689▼ FALLING -50.00%σ EXTREME 39.27%LAST 0.01300.03650.03020.02400.01770.0115μ = 0.0246max 0.0365min 0.0115dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.30¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9754 · σ=0.0097 · range [0.9635, 0.9885] · R²=0.689▲ RISING +1.33%σ LOW 0.99%LAST 0.98700.98850.98230.97600.96980.9635μ = 0.9754max 0.9885min 0.9635dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.70¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0029 · skew=-0.19 (symmetric) · kurt=0.56 (mesokurtic)864201-0.77ppbin -0.77pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.77pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-0.62pp3-0.46ppbin -0.46pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -0.46pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak1-0.31ppbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak5-0.15ppbin -0.15pp · n=5 · 62.5% peakbin -0.15pp · n=5 · 62.5% peak80.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak30.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 0.16pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak20.31ppbin 0.31pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.31pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak0.47pp10.62ppbin 0.62pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 0.62pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.20 · kurt=1.17 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.74)
μ MEAN2.46¢95% CI: [2.08¢, 2.84¢]
σ STD DEV0.97ppσ² = 0.933 · CV = 39.27%
med MEDIAN2.70¢Q₁ 1.35¢ · Q₃ 3.40¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.50pp · IQR 2.05pp (1.349σ→1.30pp)
min 1.15¢Q₁ 1.35¢med 2.70¢Q₃ 3.40¢max 3.65¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.136approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.742platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.64
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.59
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.106within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.404lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.880strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.131significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.880
H = 0.880STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.106k=2+0.404k=3+0.023k=4+0.230k=5-0.0920+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.13)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.87very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.13)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2467711
SLUGwill-ethereum-reach-1800-june-8-14-2026
CATEGORYCrypto
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.15¢implied prob 1.15% · decimal odds 86.96×
COUNTER · NO98.85¢implied prob 98.85% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.15¢
98.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.36k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY18.86k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.977 · entropy 0.091 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.1%NO 98.9%YES p̂1.1%H = 0.091 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES86.96×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.091 bits (9% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 04:00 UTC
0days
11hrs
45min
11.8 hours·θ = 4.733 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.9%)
current: $0.0115 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.97% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.733 pp/day
now11.76h left
4.733 pp/day×1.00
−25%8.82h left
5.465 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.88h left
6.693 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.94h left
9.466 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.18h left
14.967 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.70% · worst -0.85% · typical |Δ| 0.21%BEARISH SESSION -1.30%BEST+0.70%1hWORST-0.85%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.30%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.85%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.30%+1.05%-1.45%0.70% · 1h0.70% · 1h0.70%1h★ BEST-0.40% · 2h-0.40% · 2h-0.40%2h0.30% · 3h0.30% · 3h0.30%3h-0.15% · 4h-0.15% · 4h-0.15%4h0.35% · 5h0.35% · 5h0.35%5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h0.15% · 7h0.15% · 7h0.15%7h-0.15% · 8h-0.15% · 8h-0.15%8h0.20% · 9h0.20% · 9h0.20%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.85% · 12h-0.85% · 12h-0.85%12h▼ WORST-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h-0.45% · 14h-0.45% · 14h-0.45%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.25% · 17h-0.25% · 17h-0.25%17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.15% · 23h0.15% · 23h0.15%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH29% up · 46% down · 25% flat
7 up bars · 11 down · best 0.70% · worst -0.85% · typical |Δ| 0.212%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.30%)FINAL-1.30%MAX DD-2.48%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.05%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9870 · peak 1.0105 · range [0.9855, 1.0105]1.01050.9855break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0105UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.48% · moderate0%-2.48%▼ TROUGH -2.48%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.48%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.15%bar 9-9 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.48%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 0.9870 (-1.30%) · max DD -2.48% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-37.08 · σ=58.61UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -8.04 (+0.50σ vs μ)113.9356.960.00-56.96-113.93μ = -37.0833.8533.8516.4416.4439.8239.8235.2135.2154.0454.0431.4131.41-26.41-26.41-38.64-38.64-48.82-48.82-86.77-86.77-86.77-86.77-108.57-108.57-113.93-113.93-105.73-105.73-76.61-76.61-93.59-93.59-93.59-93.59-27.72-27.72-8.04-8.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.038 · range [-113.93, 54.04] · μ -37.075 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=22.2622 · σ=10.0564 · range [9.0824, 36.6597] · R²=0.275▼ FALLING -75.23%σ EXTREME 45.17%LAST 9.082436.659729.765322.871015.97679.0824μ = 22.2622max 36.6597min 9.0824dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 9.08% · range [9.08%, 36.66%] · μ 22.26% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.302 · σ=0.253MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.001 (+1.19σ vs μ)0.7140.3570.000-0.357-0.714μ = -0.302-0.670-0.670-0.549-0.549-0.604-0.604-0.582-0.582-0.417-0.417-0.714-0.714-0.080-0.080-0.098-0.098-0.136-0.136-0.323-0.323-0.595-0.595-0.314-0.314-0.208-0.2080.0260.026-0.274-0.274-0.200-0.2000.0000.000-0.004-0.004-0.001-0.001v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.001 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.2345
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1984
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.8827
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2284
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.2885
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9205
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2849
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7757
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7250
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0113
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.2830
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7772
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.086 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.07e-5 · top T=2.00h (27.3%) · top-3 cover 64.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.5e-52.6e-51.8e-58.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 25.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.31e-5 · 25.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.67e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.67e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.83e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.83e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.60e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.60e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.30e-6 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.30e-6 · 4.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.21e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.21e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.90e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.90e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.45e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.45e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.59e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.59e-6 · 4.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.42e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.42e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.50e-5 · 27.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.50e-5 · 27.3% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 27.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.285e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3640 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.026pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.09ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0114 · n = 3640✓ n = 3640
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.026pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.13pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.09pp
σ × √11.757550555555556
Terminal variancebinary
0.0114
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3640
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
69.7pp
peak 3.8¢ → trough 1.1¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
86.957
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+8596
$100 wins $8596
FractionalUK
85.96 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$8595.65
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.091 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.091 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.44 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
77842541398842768097422974498583410204186463236514810076681749528277884260471
NO token ID
28845727113603414428253928617732787507505831615551930595402103616808521794307
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:14:32 UTC
Snapshot age
9ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:14:32 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a95d0209771d5c81c90f3992ae1bf19c23d0d3654766c8dc50cdba92b1e4b790 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,084.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.95HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Crypto

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.013000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4615.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.211
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.803
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-ethereum-reach-1800-june-8-14-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.07150445003.08bp0.29000022FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.378060280815.09bp0.84000031FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.774167585513.02bp0.99900043PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0026857934.32bp0.0010006PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0026857934.32bp0.0010006PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0026857934.32bp0.0010006PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,640 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1575.71%
σ per bar = 0.011902
Mean return (annualised)
-39292.51%
μ per bar = -0.000224
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.94
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
69.74%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.01 over 1936 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-ethereum-reach-1800-june-8-14-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON