POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
1.5¢
NO · live
98.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-cody-gakpo-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
7.54%
max drawdown
6.45%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
4.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
309
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-cody-gakpo-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH13ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.5¢
NO · live
98.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0177 · σ=0.0037 · range [0.0145, 0.0295] · R²=0.045▼ FALLING -21.62%σ EXTREME 20.85%LAST 0.01450.02950.02570.02200.01830.0145μ = 0.0177max 0.0295min 0.0145dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.5%NO 98.6%NO98.6%98.55¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.109 / 1.00 bits (11%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.5%1.5¢68.97×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.6%98.6¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=300 · μ=12.5 · σ=33.6 · CV=2.69BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130326597130μ = 1213050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 300bp moved · peak 130bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
13ms
▲YES mid
1.45¢ (1.45%)
▼NO mid
98.55¢ (98.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$100.1k
≋liquidity $
$75.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0177 · σ=0.0037 · range [0.0145, 0.0295] · R²=0.045▼ FALLING -21.62%σ EXTREME 20.85%LAST 0.01450.02950.02570.02200.01830.0145μ = 0.0177max 0.0295min 0.0145dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9823 · σ=0.0037 · range [0.9705, 0.9855] · R²=0.045▲ RISING +0.41%σ LOW 0.38%LAST 0.98550.98550.98180.97800.97430.9705μ = 0.9823max 0.9855min 0.9705dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0032 · skew=1.08 (right-skewed) · kurt=9.00 (leptokurtic (fat tails))211611501-0.98ppbin -0.98pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin -0.98pp · n=1 · 4.8% peak-0.74pp-0.50pp1-0.26ppbin -0.26pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin -0.26pp · n=1 · 4.8% peak21-0.02ppbin -0.02pp · n=21 · 100.0% peakbin -0.02pp · n=21 · 100.0% peak0.22pp0.46pp0.70pp0.94pp11.18ppbin 1.18pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin 1.18pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.96 · kurt=8.98 · near 5 / mid 12 / far 7 · OLS slope=0.70 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.71σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=5.35)
μ MEAN1.77¢95% CI: [1.63¢, 1.92¢]
σ STD DEV0.37ppσ² = 0.136 · CV = 20.85%
med MEDIAN1.65¢Q₁ 1.65¢ · Q₃ 1.75¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.50pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.50pp)
min 1.45¢Q₁ 1.65¢med 1.65¢Q₃ 1.75¢max 2.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.499right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.346leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.06
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.021within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.446lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.903strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.038fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.903
H = 0.903STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1+0.021k=2 ★-0.446k=3-0.004k=4-0.043k=5-0.0430+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.83very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069654
SLUGwill-cody-gakpo-…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.45¢implied prob 1.45% · decimal odds 68.97×
COUNTER · NO98.55¢implied prob 98.55% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.45¢
98.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME100.14k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY75.54k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.971 · entropy 0.109 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.5%NO 98.6%YES p̂1.5%H = 0.109 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES68.97×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.109 bits (11% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
34days
15hrs
50min
34.66 days·θ = 1.810 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.6%)
current: $0.0145 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+17.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.37% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.810 pp/day
now34.66d left
1.810 pp/day×1.00
−25%25.99d left
2.090 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.33d left
2.559 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.66d left
3.620 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.47d left
5.723 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.30% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.12%MILD BEARISH -0.40%BEST+1.30%11hWORST-1.10%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.12%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.40%+1.10%-0.40%-0.10% · 1h-0.10% · 1h-0.10%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.05% · 5h-0.05% · 5h-0.05%5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h1.30% · 11h1.30% · 11h1.30%11h★ BEST0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-1.10% · 13h-1.10% · 13h-1.10%13h▼ WORST-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.20% · 22h-0.20% · 22h-0.20%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.05%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 4BREADTH4% up · 33% down · 63% flat
1 up bars · 8 down · best 1.30% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.125%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.41%)FINAL-0.41%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.10%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9959 · peak 1.0110 · range [0.9959, 1.0110]1.01100.9959break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0110UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.50%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.20%bar 2-11 · 10 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9959 (-0.41%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −13 (26% positive) · μ=-32.31 · σ=35.43UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.21 (-0.17σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -32.31-76.42-76.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.4236.4336.4338.2138.214.104.103.073.071.021.020.000.00-46.69-46.69-46.69-46.69-76.42-76.42-55.93-55.93-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-76.42, 38.21] · μ -32.306 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=26.9729 · σ=28.9273 · range [1.9105, 71.4638] · R²=0.003▲ RISING +100.00%σ EXTREME 107.25%LAST 7.642071.463854.075536.687219.29881.9105μ = 26.9729max 71.4638min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 7.64% · range [1.91%, 71.46%] · μ 26.97% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=0.034 · σ=0.214CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.233 (-1.25σ vs μ)0.4670.2330.000-0.233-0.467μ = 0.034-0.033-0.0330.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.4170.417-0.030-0.030-0.233-0.233-0.015-0.0150.0170.0170.0200.0200.0220.022-0.279-0.279-0.027-0.0270.4670.4670.3570.357-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·4 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
135.9681
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.7851
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3274
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4774
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1272
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
—
p-VALUE (log scale)
—
no decision possibleinsufficient sign variety (1+/8-)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1669
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4146
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6629
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5074
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.798 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.24e-5 · top T=4.00h (17.0%) · top-3 cover 45.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.5e-51.9e-51.3e-56.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.73e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.73e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.94e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.94e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.60e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.60e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.96e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.96e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.53e-5 · 17.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.53e-5 · 17.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.90e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.90e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.71e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.71e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.04e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.04e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.11e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 0.3% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 17.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.484e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (309 bars · effective 1753395 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 34.7 d · σ/bar 0.006pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.16ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0143 · n = 309✓ n = 309
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.006pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move35d
0.16pp
σ × √831.8335625
Terminal variancebinary
0.0143
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 309
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
6.5pp
peak 1.6¢ → trough 1.5¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
68.966
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+6797
$100 wins $6797
FractionalUK
67.97 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$6796.55
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.109 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.109 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.11 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
73688069988278230674219431791309233443099848782086004607415803025316845583685
NO token ID
75119954426570813802678147124482336132212589987617045287240832903358070167648
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 08:09:59 UTC
Snapshot age
13ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 08:09:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7b303fb106516738419e91d9d1d27e92a4823b40da53ff1643edb18bc33e6f3a · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain92.0¢HL PREDBrazil88.0¢HL PREDNorway78.9¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?88¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?93¢POLYMARKETWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,699HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,719.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$65.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.014500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
689.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.986
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.671
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-cody-gakpo-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0289349954.18bp0.29400032FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.211690135992.80bp0.77900043FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.680636459404.44bp0.95000058FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0025828219.26bp0.0010005PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0025828219.26bp0.0010005PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0025828219.26bp0.0010005PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 309 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
503.19%
σ per bar = 0.003800
Mean return (annualised)
-37966.33%
μ per bar = -0.000217
Sharpe (rf=0)
-75.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.45%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 51 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-cody-gakpo-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON