POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US X IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING BY...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
92.8¢
NO · live
7.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259-948-431-294-182-296-883-134-598-264 · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.83%
realized vol (ann.)
276.31%
max drawdown
13.23%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
6.83%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.23%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
12.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.10
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.10
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.83%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -2.83%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259-948-431-294-182-296-883-134-598-264/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
92.8¢
NO · live
7.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9010 · σ=0.0460 · range [0.7965, 0.9500] · R²=0.251▼ FALLING -2.68%σ HIGH 5.11%LAST 0.92450.95000.91160.87320.83490.7965μ = 0.9010max 0.9500min 0.7965dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 92.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 92.8%NO 7.2%YES92.8%92.80¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.373 / 1.00 bits (37%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
92.8%92.8¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
NO
7.2%7.2¢13.89×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=6,155 · μ=256.5 · σ=233.3 · CV=0.91BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130200400600800μ = 25680050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6155bp moved · peak 800bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.3s
▲YES mid
92.80¢ (92.80%)
▼NO mid
7.20¢ (7.20%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$356.6k
≋liquidity $
$45.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9010 · σ=0.0460 · range [0.7965, 0.9500] · R²=0.251▼ FALLING -2.68%σ HIGH 5.11%LAST 0.92450.95000.91160.87320.83490.7965μ = 0.9010max 0.9500min 0.7965dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0989 · σ=0.0460 · range [0.0500, 0.2035] · R²=0.249▲ RISING +51.00%σ EXTREME 46.51%LAST 0.07550.20350.16510.12680.08840.0500μ = 0.0989max 0.2035min 0.0500dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0007 · σ=0.0334 · skew=-0.20 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.48 (mesokurtic)653201-7.31ppbin -7.31pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -7.31pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak1-5.94ppbin -5.94pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -5.94pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak1-4.57ppbin -4.57pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -4.57pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak3-3.20ppbin -3.20pp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -3.20pp · n=3 · 50.0% peak1-1.83ppbin -1.83pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -1.83pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak6-0.46ppbin -0.46pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -0.46pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak50.91ppbin 0.91pp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 0.91pp · n=5 · 83.3% peak12.28ppbin 2.28pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 2.28pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak13.65ppbin 3.65pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 3.65pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak45.02ppbin 5.02pp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 5.02pp · n=4 · 66.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.25 · kurt=-0.28 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.63)
μ MEAN90.10¢95% CI: [88.30¢, 91.91¢]
σ STD DEV4.60ppσ² = 21.171 · CV = 5.11%
med MEDIAN91.45¢Q₁ 86.10¢ · Q₃ 94.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 15.35pp · IQR 8.15pp (1.349σ→6.21pp)
min 79.65¢Q₁ 86.10¢med 91.45¢Q₃ 94.25¢max 95.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.634left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.888mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.29
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.76
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.34
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.120within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.079lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.119strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.778significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.119
H = 1.119STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.120k=2+0.079k=3-0.120k=4-0.071k=5-0.2810+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2109450
SLUGus-x-iran-diplom…-134-598-264
CATEGORYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (93¢)
PRIMARY · YES92.80¢implied prob 92.80% · decimal odds 1.08×
COUNTER · NO7.20¢implied prob 7.20% · decimal odds 13.89×
92.80¢
7.20¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME356.64k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY45.09k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (93¢)|primary − counter| = 0.856 · entropy 0.373 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 92.8%NO 7.2%YES p̂92.8%H = 0.373 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.08×(93¢)NO13.89×(7¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.373 bits (37% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 5.70% · worst -8.00% · typical |Δ| 2.56%MILD BEARISH -2.55%BEST+5.70%8hWORST-8.00%5hTYPICAL |Δ|2.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 5up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.01% · Σ -7.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.24% · Σ +1.90%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.55%+0.00%-15.35%-0.05% · 1h-0.05% · 1h-0.05%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h-0.75% · 3h-0.75% · 3h-0.75%3h-0.15% · 4h-0.15% · 4h-0.15%4h-8.00% · 5h-8.00% · 5h-8.00%5h▼ WORST4.20% · 6h4.20% · 6h4.20%6h-2.35% · 7h-2.35% · 7h-2.35%7h5.70% · 8h5.70% · 8h5.70%8h★ BEST0.85% · 9h0.85% · 9h0.85%9h0.40% · 10h0.40% · 10h0.40%10h-0.25% · 11h-0.25% · 11h-0.25%11h-3.00% · 12h-3.00% · 12h-3.00%12h-6.05% · 13h-6.05% · 13h-6.05%13h4.95% · 14h4.95% · 14h4.95%14h-0.70% · 15h-0.70% · 15h-0.70%15h-4.60% · 16h-4.60% · 16h-4.60%16h-2.60% · 17h-2.60% · 17h-2.60%17h0.55% · 18h0.55% · 18h0.55%18h-3.55% · 19h-3.55% · 19h-3.55%19h4.40% · 20h4.40% · 20h4.40%20h4.95% · 21h4.95% · 21h4.95%21h2.45% · 22h2.45% · 22h2.45%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h0.60% · 24h0.60% · 24h0.60%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+2.00%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 5.70% · worst -8.00% · typical |Δ| 2.565%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -3.90%FINAL-3.90%MAX DD-15.24%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9610 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.8476, 1.0000]1.00000.8476break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -15.24% · severe0%-15.24%▼ TROUGH -15.24%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -15.24%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -15.24%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9610 (-3.90%) · max DD -15.24% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-5.23 · σ=28.79MIXED EDGELAST 46.22 (+1.79σ vs μ)48.4924.240.00-24.24-48.49μ = -5.23-18.50-18.50-27.37-27.37-4.30-4.300.790.792.542.5444.7544.756.826.82-9.27-9.27-12.98-12.98-19.78-19.78-38.54-38.54-48.49-48.49-33.39-33.39-26.81-26.81-30.96-30.96-3.22-3.2227.2227.2245.9345.9346.2246.22v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 46.221 · range [-48.49, 46.22] · μ -5.228 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=356.8547 · σ=56.0009 · range [278.9496, 459.3370] · R²=0.285▼ FALLING -21.24%σ EXTREME 15.69%LAST 292.1812459.3370414.2401369.1433324.0465278.9496μ = 356.8547max 459.3370min 278.9496dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 292.18% · range [278.95%, 459.34%] · μ 356.85% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.226 · σ=0.264MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.034 (+0.73σ vs μ)0.6160.3080.000-0.308-0.616μ = -0.226-0.508-0.508-0.616-0.616-0.475-0.475-0.422-0.422-0.439-0.439-0.603-0.603-0.191-0.1910.2950.295-0.226-0.226-0.276-0.276-0.283-0.283-0.227-0.227-0.331-0.3310.0010.001-0.299-0.2990.1720.1720.1150.1150.0470.047-0.034-0.034v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.034 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2836
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8678
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.7429
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5893
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0509
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2746
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3815
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0851
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0850
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9322
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.974 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.37e-3 · top T=2.00h (28.6%) · top-3 cover 57.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.7e-33.5e-32.4e-31.2e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.42e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.42e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.93e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.93e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.38e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.38e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.04e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.04e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.45e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.45e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.54e-3 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.54e-3 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.61e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.61e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.02e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.02e-3 · 6.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.54e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.54e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.81e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.81e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.72e-3 · 28.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.72e-3 · 28.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 28.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.650e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.255pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.63ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0668 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.255pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.25pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.63pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0668
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
92.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.42pp · ES₉₅ 0.53pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.42pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.53pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
17.3pp
peak 95.9¢ → trough 79.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
92.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.078
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-1289
risk $1289 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.08 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7.76
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 92.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.373 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.373 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.11 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.80 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
42651487770072584399780567111092653963782174358340706174105521278109948131465
NO token ID
101705080993661663057134815759356790403965566370163771135521763312013830750702
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 09:56:47 UTC
Snapshot age
4.3s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 09:56:52 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6b6892210b025d08b4ecc4c6edd8087e3a81bd8e86f2e37f7d725d89daa3af57 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.924500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
335.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.639
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.882
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259-948-431-294-182-296-883-134-598-264/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.942937199.43bp0.9430003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.944277213.92bp0.9460006FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.977291571.02bp0.99900029PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.902413238.90bp0.89600010FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.8292821029.94bp0.71200044FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1043358871.45bp0.001000142PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
383.01%
σ per bar = 0.002893
Mean return (annualised)
-1023.72%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.67
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
17.26%
peak 0.96 → trough 0.79 over 1664 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259-948-431-294-182-296-883-134-598-264/risk · same metrics, JSON