POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US MILITARY ACTION AGAINST CUBA BY...?

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

YES · live
52.5¢
NO · live
47.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-strike-on-cuba-by-december-31 · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
163.50%
max drawdown
3.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.09%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.30%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-strike-on-cuba-by-december-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
52.5¢
NO · live
47.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5322 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.5250, 0.5450] · R²=0.001▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.25%LAST 0.52500.54500.54000.53500.53000.5250μ = 0.5322max 0.5450min 0.5250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 52.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 52.5%NO 47.5%YES52.5%52.50¢ · odds 1/1.90
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
52.5%52.5¢1.90×▬ +0.00pp
NO
47.5%47.5¢2.11×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,400 · μ=58.3 · σ=52.5 · CV=0.90BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13050100150200μ = 5820050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1400bp moved · peak 200bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.0s
▲YES mid
52.50¢ (52.50%)
▼NO mid
47.50¢ (47.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$153.7k
≋liquidity $
$78.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5322 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.5250, 0.5450] · R²=0.001▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.25%LAST 0.52500.54500.54000.53500.53000.5250μ = 0.5322max 0.5450min 0.5250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 52.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4678 · σ=0.0066 · range [0.4550, 0.4750] · R²=0.001▬ FLATσ NORMAL 1.42%LAST 0.47500.47500.47000.46500.46000.4550μ = 0.4678max 0.4750min 0.4550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 47.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0080 · skew=0.49 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.56 (mesokurtic)754201-1.33ppbin -1.33pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -1.33pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak2-0.98ppbin -0.98pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -0.98pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak7-0.63ppbin -0.63pp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -0.63pp · n=7 · 100.0% peak-0.28pp70.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 0.08pp · n=7 · 100.0% peak20.43ppbin 0.43pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 0.43pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak0.78pp41.13ppbin 1.13pp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 1.13pp · n=4 · 57.1% peak1.48pp11.83ppbin 1.83pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 1.83pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.53 · kurt=0.15 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.54)
μ MEAN53.22¢95% CI: [52.96¢, 53.48¢]
σ STD DEV0.66ppσ² = 0.439 · CV = 1.25%
med MEDIAN53.00¢Q₁ 52.50¢ · Q₃ 53.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.00pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→0.89pp)
min 52.50¢Q₁ 52.50¢med 53.00¢Q₃ 53.50¢max 54.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.536right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.795mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.02
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.293within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.017lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.927strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.185fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.927
H = 0.927STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.293k=2-0.017k=3-0.034k=4-0.069k=5-0.1030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1107582
SLUGus-strike-on-cuba-by-december-31
CATEGORYUS military action against Cuba by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (53¢)
PRIMARY · YES52.50¢implied prob 52.50% · decimal odds 1.90×
COUNTER · NO47.50¢implied prob 47.50% · decimal odds 2.11×
52.50¢
47.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME153.74k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY78.42k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (53¢)|primary − counter| = 0.050 · entropy 0.998 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 52.5%NO 47.5%YES p̂52.5%H = 0.998 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.90×(53¢)NO2.11×(48¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.998 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
195days
14hrs
11min
195.59 days·θ = 3.247 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 52.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 47.5%)
current: $0.5250 · expected return per side: $0.47 on YES hit · $0.53 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+97.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.66% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.247 pp/day
now195.59d left
3.247 pp/day×1.00
−25%146.69d left
3.749 pp/day×1.15
−50%97.80d left
4.591 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.90d left
6.493 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.56d left
10.266 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.58%MIXED · 7 UP / 10 DNBEST+2.00%2hWORST-1.50%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.58%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.00%+2.00%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h2.00% · 2h2.00% · 2h2.00%2h★ BEST0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-1.00% · 4h-1.00% · 4h-1.00%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h-1.50% · 23h-1.50% · 23h-1.50%23h▼ WORST-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.50%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 42% down · 29% flat
7 up bars · 10 down · best 2.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.583%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.07%)FINAL-0.07%MAX DD-2.03%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.00%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9993 · peak 1.0200 · range [0.9993, 1.0200]1.02000.9993break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0200UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.03% · moderate0%-2.03%▼ TROUGH -2.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.03%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.03%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9993 (-0.07%) · max DD -2.03% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −7 (42% positive) · μ=-1.66 · σ=22.70MIXED EDGELAST -15.87 (-0.63σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = -1.6615.8715.870.000.00-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.21-30.21-30.210.000.00-10.60-10.600.000.0011.7411.74-11.74-11.7420.7220.720.000.0013.3413.3413.3413.3422.8322.8322.8322.8322.8322.83-8.04-8.04-15.87-15.87v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -15.866 · range [-60.42, 22.83] · μ -1.661 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=67.4167 · σ=15.6060 · range [48.3322, 102.5280] · R²=0.001▬ FLATσ EXTREME 23.15%LAST 92.0217102.528088.979175.430161.881148.3322μ = 67.4167max 102.5280min 48.3322dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 92.02% · range [48.33%, 102.53%] · μ 67.42% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −18 (0% positive) · μ=-0.419 · σ=0.189MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.471 (-0.27σ vs μ)0.6550.3270.000-0.327-0.655μ = -0.419-0.040-0.0400.0000.000-0.583-0.583-0.167-0.167-0.271-0.271-0.300-0.300-0.433-0.433-0.500-0.500-0.550-0.550-0.550-0.550-0.392-0.392-0.375-0.375-0.638-0.638-0.467-0.467-0.476-0.476-0.476-0.476-0.655-0.655-0.621-0.621-0.471-0.471v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.471 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5326
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4647
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.8744
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7219
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.5369
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0073
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.4690
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0135
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0918
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8186
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0690
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.447 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.67e-5 · top T=2.00h (18.7%) · top-3 cover 50.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.5e-53.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.46e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.46e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.97e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.97e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.28e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.28e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.56e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.56e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.09e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.42e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.42e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.20e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.20e-5 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.64e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.64e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.36e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.36e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.40e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.40e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 18.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-4 · 18.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 18.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.000e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 195.6 d · σ/bar 0.093pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.37ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2494 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.093pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.46pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move196d
6.37pp
σ × √4694.192310277778
Terminal variancebinary
0.2494
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
52.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.19pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.15pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.19pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
3.7pp
peak 54.5¢ → trough 52.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
52.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.905
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-111
risk $111 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.90 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$90.48
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 52.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.998 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.998 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.93 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.07 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
91347242536105459969213788769929618447748782724898414007495579710952664644740
NO token ID
55782999195478978645683058282751482473275270795090145277907596121415418369349
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 09:48:23 UTC
Snapshot age
4.0s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 09:48:27 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0138f44d37aa58bfeaaff3f8ef298dccc3565332498db99a7dee789db4b4bd1f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.3¢HL PREDCanada76.0¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.5¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,244HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.84HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,746.8

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US military action against Cuba by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.525000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
190.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.384
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.275
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-strike-on-cuba-by-december-31/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.544817377.46bp0.5500003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5813121072.60bp0.65000013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8233245682.36bp0.95000043FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.52000095.24bp0.5200001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.493082607.96bp0.4600007FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0875728331.97bp0.01000052PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
231.23%
σ per bar = 0.001747
Mean return (annualised)
-332.28%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-1.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.67%
peak 0.55 → trough 0.53 over 999 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-strike-on-cuba-by-december-31/risk · same metrics, JSON