POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US ANNOUNCES NEW IRAN AGREEMENT/CEASEFIRE EXTENSION BY...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?

YES · live
56.5¢
NO · live
43.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
393.91%
max drawdown
33.55%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.89%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
32.73%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.81
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.81
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH11ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
56.5¢
NO · live
43.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.6530 · σ=0.0625 · range [0.5050, 0.7650] · R²=0.031▼ FALLING -14.41%σ HIGH 9.58%LAST 0.50500.76500.70000.63500.57000.5050μ = 0.6530max 0.7650min 0.5050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 50.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 56.5%NO 43.5%YES56.5%56.50¢ · odds 1/1.77
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.988 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
56.5%56.5¢1.77×▬ +0.00pp
NO
43.5%43.5¢2.30×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=7,850 · μ=327.1 · σ=350.1 · CV=1.07BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1402625257871,050μ = 3271,05050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 7850bp moved · peak 1050bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11ms
▲YES mid
56.50¢ (56.50%)
▼NO mid
43.50¢ (43.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$54.6k
≋liquidity $
$35.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6530 · σ=0.0625 · range [0.5050, 0.7650] · R²=0.031▼ FALLING -14.41%σ HIGH 9.58%LAST 0.50500.76500.70000.63500.57000.5050μ = 0.6530max 0.7650min 0.5050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 50.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3470 · σ=0.0625 · range [0.2350, 0.4950] · R²=0.031▲ RISING +20.73%σ EXTREME 18.03%LAST 0.49500.49500.43000.36500.30000.2350μ = 0.3470max 0.4950min 0.2350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 49.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0017 · σ=0.0461 · skew=0.19 (symmetric) · kurt=0.35 (mesokurtic)653202-9.45ppbin -9.45pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -9.45pp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-7.35pp1-5.25ppbin -5.25pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -5.25pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak4-3.15ppbin -3.15pp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -3.15pp · n=4 · 66.7% peak6-1.05ppbin -1.05pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -1.05pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak61.05ppbin 1.05pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 1.05pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak23.15ppbin 3.15pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 3.15pp · n=2 · 33.3% peak5.25pp17.35ppbin 7.35pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 7.35pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak29.45ppbin 9.45pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 9.45pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.40 · kurt=0.61 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.54)
μ MEAN65.30¢95% CI: [62.85¢, 67.75¢]
σ STD DEV6.25ppσ² = 39.125 · CV = 9.58%
med MEDIAN64.00¢Q₁ 62.50¢ · Q₃ 70.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 26.00pp · IQR 7.50pp (1.349σ→8.44pp)
min 50.50¢Q₁ 62.50¢med 64.00¢Q₃ 70.00¢max 76.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.544left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.011mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.13
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.16
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.034within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.111lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.923strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.862fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.923
H = 0.923STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.034k=2+0.111k=3-0.070k=4+0.047k=5-0.0910+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.86)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.86)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2508401
SLUGus-announces-new…n-by-june-18
CATEGORYUS announces new…nsion by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (56¢)
PRIMARY · YES56.50¢implied prob 56.50% · decimal odds 1.77×
COUNTER · NO43.50¢implied prob 43.50% · decimal odds 2.30×
56.50¢
43.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME54.60k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY35.15k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (56¢)|primary − counter| = 0.130 · entropy 0.988 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 56.5%NO 43.5%YES p̂56.5%H = 0.988 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.77×(56¢)NO2.30×(44¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.988 bits (99% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC
3days
10hrs
22min
3.43 days·θ = 30.643 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 56.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 43.5%)
current: $0.5650 · expected return per side: $0.44 on YES hit · $0.56 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=6.25% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 30.643 pp/day
now3.43d left
30.643 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.57d left
35.384 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.72d left
43.336 pp/day×1.41
−75%20.59h left
61.286 pp/day×2.00
−90%8.24h left
96.902 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 10.50% · worst -10.50% · typical |Δ| 3.27%BEARISH SESSION -8.50%BEST+10.50%15hWORST-10.50%23hTYPICAL |Δ|3.27%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-8.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +1.14% · Σ +8.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +1.19% · Σ +9.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -3.13% · Σ -25.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -8.50%+17.50%-8.50%9.50% · 1h9.50% · 1h9.50%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h3.00% · 3h3.00% · 3h3.00%3h-3.50% · 4h-3.50% · 4h-3.50%4h-4.00% · 5h-4.00% · 5h-4.00%5h-4.50% · 6h-4.50% · 6h-4.50%6h7.50% · 7h7.50% · 7h7.50%7h-3.00% · 8h-3.00% · 8h-3.00%8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h3.50% · 14h3.50% · 14h3.50%14h10.50% · 15h10.50% · 15h10.50%15h★ BEST-3.50% · 16h-3.50% · 16h-3.50%16h-1.50% · 17h-1.50% · 17h-1.50%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-2.00% · 20h-2.00% · 20h-2.00%20h-8.50% · 21h-8.50% · 21h-8.50%21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h-10.50% · 23h-10.50% · 23h-10.50%23h▼ WORST-1.00% · 24h-1.00% · 24h-1.00%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+9.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 54% down · 17% flat
7 up bars · 13 down · best 10.50% · worst -10.50% · typical |Δ| 3.271%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -10.59%FINAL-10.59%MAX DD-23.72%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+17.22%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8941 · peak 1.1722 · range [0.8941, 1.1722]1.17220.8941break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1722UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -23.72% · severe0%-23.72%▼ TROUGH -23.72%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -23.72%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -11.53%bar 5-15 · 11 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -23.72%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.8941 (-10.59%) · max DD -23.72% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-9.17 · σ=38.31MIXED EDGELAST -71.27 (-1.62σ vs μ)71.5335.770.00-35.77-71.53μ = -9.171.441.44-4.91-4.91-14.37-14.37-27.45-27.45-15.83-15.83-1.88-1.8815.3015.30-62.17-62.1719.8619.8646.5646.5630.2230.2224.7824.7828.1928.1929.9729.9712.4112.41-71.53-71.53-50.02-50.02-63.59-63.59-71.27-71.27v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -71.274 · range [-71.53, 46.56] · μ -9.173 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=394.2430 · σ=109.1987 · range [105.6835, 508.7092] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -13.43%σ EXTREME 27.70%LAST 440.4100508.7092407.9527307.1963206.4399105.6835μ = 394.2430max 508.7092min 105.6835dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 440.41% · range [105.68%, 508.71%] · μ 394.24% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.175 · σ=0.238MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.617 (-1.86σ vs μ)0.6350.3170.000-0.317-0.635μ = -0.1750.1480.148-0.128-0.128-0.324-0.324-0.289-0.289-0.383-0.383-0.635-0.635-0.303-0.3030.0690.069-0.104-0.1040.2650.265-0.205-0.205-0.090-0.090-0.105-0.105-0.061-0.061-0.235-0.2350.1450.145-0.165-0.165-0.307-0.307-0.617-0.617v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.617 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.8707
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3925
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.8668
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9705
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3824
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5893
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.0508
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9595
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1269
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4844
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3057
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7598
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.907 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.29e-3 · top T=6.00h (16.5%) · top-3 cover 40.2%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)4.5e-33.4e-32.3e-31.1e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 1.18e-3 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.18e-3 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.18e-3 · 11.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.18e-3 · 11.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.72e-3 · 6.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.72e-3 · 6.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.53e-3 · 16.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.53e-3 · 16.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.48e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.48e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.83e-3 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.83e-3 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.02e-3 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.02e-3 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-3 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-3 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.34e-3 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.34e-3 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.95e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.95e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-3 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.43e-3 · 5.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 16.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.750e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3302 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 3.4 d · σ/bar 0.251pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.28ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2458 · n = 3302✓ n = 3302
μ per bar
-0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.251pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.23pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move3d
2.28pp
σ × √82.37933805555556
Terminal variancebinary
0.2458
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
56.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.42pp · ES₉₅ 0.52pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3302
VaR 95%
0.42pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.52pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
33.5pp
peak 77.5¢ → trough 51.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
56.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.770
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-130
risk $130 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.77 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$76.99
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 56.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.988 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.988 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.82 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.20 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
81265378457426710826537734118810698899699790464321646535692402947367120607503
NO token ID
10757754728398062555617462748670316647257845031463556506332570177075763997784
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:37:14 UTC
Snapshot age
11ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:37:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ad15cf8a715989890ca58f2cf98516b41c75761ebaff347b0b1d4eb6c5b8dd04 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?13¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,273HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.505000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
594.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.026
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.146
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.5647131182.44bp0.6200009FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6693483254.42bp0.74000021FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8682617193.28bp0.95000042FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.468582721.16bp0.4300006FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2567524915.81bp0.16000030FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0816528383.12bp0.01000044PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,302 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
518.62%
σ per bar = 0.003917
Mean return (annualised)
-9837.57%
μ per bar = -0.000056
Sharpe (rf=0)
-18.97
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
33.55%
peak 0.78 → trough 0.52 over 1511 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18/risk · same metrics, JSON