POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPY (SPY) UP OR DOWN ON JUNE 18?
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18?
66.5¢
33.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · spy-up-or-down-on-june-18-2026 · fresh · feed 12s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
576.88%
max drawdown
17.39%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
9.11%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.20%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
17.39%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.69
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.69
upside/downside
roll spread
3.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
879
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-spy-up-or-down-on-june-18-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
66.5¢
NO · live
33.5¢
23 ticks · last 67.00¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.920 / 1.00 bits (92%) · high uncertainty
YES66.5%66.5¢1.50×▬ +0.00pp
NO33.5%33.5¢2.99×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 8600bp moved · peak 1900bp · n=22 ticks
12.2s
66.50¢ (66.50%)
33.50¢ (33.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$59.5k
$12.3k
23 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
23 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 67.00¢
23 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 33.00¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=22
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=23LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.51)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.511left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.191platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=22
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.009STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
66.50¢
33.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES1.50×(67¢)NO2.99×(34¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.920 bits (92% of max) · high uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 20:00 UTC
0days
07hrs
49min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.6650 · expected return per side: $0.33 on YES hit · $0.67 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 51.539 pp/day
now7.83h left51.539 pp/day×1.00
−25%5.87h left59.512 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.91h left72.887 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.96h left103.078 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.78h left162.981 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
9 up bars · 10 down · best 19.00% · worst -8.50% · typical |Δ| 3.909%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.1367 (13.67%) · max DD -14.45% · time-under-water 16/23 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)
latest -73.057 · range [-119.10, 66.99] · μ -4.808 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 227.82% · range [163.46%, 1017.02%] · μ 537.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest 0.050 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
19.9421
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
2.0243
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8470
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-2.0716
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2660
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.2492
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8032
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.5211
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0369
Variance ratio q=2
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.4261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6700
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 7.33h (freq 0.136) · concentrates 27.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.454e-2
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (879 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.436pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.22ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2228 · n = 879✓ n = 879
μ per bar
-0.012pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.436pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.14pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.22pp
σ × √7.829843333333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2228
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
66.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.73pp · ES₉₅ 0.91pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.012pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 879
VaR 95%
0.73pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.91pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
17.4pp
peak 80.5¢ → trough 66.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
66.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.504
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-199
risk $199 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.50 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$50.38
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.920 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.920 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.59 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.58 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
101001235614723903653432923557015639760398442434043505696285910583866321927286- NO token ID
67022550163668105667688676671518842453734911802439465081607648177122060563856- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-18 12:10:00 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 12.2s
- History points
- 23 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-18 12:10:12 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
d72c84d37e82e9497164c9f24b3071e82837b916108bf29ce2e12425168122e6· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18?
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.665000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
150.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.098
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.155
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-spy-up-or-down-on-june-18-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.691458 | 397.86bp | 0.700000 | 3 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.850525 | 2789.84bp | 0.940000 | 13 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.955193 | 4363.80bp | 0.990000 | 16 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.638129 | 404.07bp | 0.630000 | 4 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.095573 | 8562.81bp | 0.010000 | 15 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.095573 | 8562.81bp | 0.010000 | 15 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 879 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
781.71%
σ per bar = 0.005904
Mean return (annualised)
-29267.44%
μ per bar = -0.000167
Sharpe (rf=0)
-37.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
17.39%
peak 0.81 → trough 0.67 over 582 bars
/api/asset/pm-spy-up-or-down-on-june-18-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON