POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · O1 FDV ABOVE ___ ONE DAY AFTER LAUNCH?

o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?

YES · live
100.0¢
NO · live
0.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · o1-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch-167 · fresh · feed 15s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.52%
realized vol (ann.)
14.11%
max drawdown
0.25%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.09%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.04%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.21%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.52%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +1.52%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-o1-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch-167/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING14.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
100.0¢
NO · live
0.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9865 · σ=0.0224 · range [0.9150, 0.9995] · R²=0.465▲ RISING +9.23%σ NORMAL 2.27%LAST 0.99950.99950.97840.95730.93610.9150μ = 0.9865max 0.9995min 0.9150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 99.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 100.0%NO 0.1%YES100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=915 · μ=38.1 · σ=87.2 · CV=2.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=30100200300400μ = 3840050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 915bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14.8s
▲YES mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
▼NO mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$61.5k
≋liquidity $
$22.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9865 · σ=0.0224 · range [0.9150, 0.9995] · R²=0.465▲ RISING +9.23%σ NORMAL 2.27%LAST 0.99950.99950.97840.95730.93610.9150μ = 0.9865max 0.9995min 0.9150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0135 · σ=0.0224 · range [0.0005, 0.0850] · R²=0.465▼ FALLING -99.41%σ EXTREME 165.57%LAST 0.00050.08500.06390.04280.02160.0005μ = 0.0135max 0.0850min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.46μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0036 · σ=0.0082 · skew=3.20 (right-skewed) · kurt=10.12 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1713940170.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak30.43ppbin 0.43pp · n=3 · 17.6% peakbin 0.43pp · n=3 · 17.6% peak20.85ppbin 0.85pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 0.85pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak1.27pp11.69ppbin 1.69pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 1.69pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak2.11pp2.53pp2.95pp3.37pp13.79ppbin 3.79pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 3.79pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.24 · kurt=10.41 · near 6 / mid 15 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.73 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.17σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.38)
μ MEAN98.65¢95% CI: [97.77¢, 99.53¢]
σ STD DEV2.24ppσ² = 5.011 · CV = 2.27%
med MEDIAN99.30¢Q₁ 99.15¢ · Q₃ 99.75¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 8.45pp · IQR 0.60pp (1.349σ→3.02pp)
min 91.50¢Q₁ 99.15¢med 99.30¢Q₃ 99.75¢max 99.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-2.353left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.384leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.29
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 5.03
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.77
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.434positive · momentum
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.194lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.308strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.467significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.308
H = 1.308STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★+0.434k=2+0.194k=3+0.140k=4-0.070k=5-0.0320+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1554877
SLUGo1-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch-167
CATEGORYo1 FDV above ___ one day after launch?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
COUNTER · NO0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
99.95¢
0.05¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME61.55k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY22.26k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 100.0%NO 0.1%YES p̂100.0%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.00×(100¢)NO2000.00×(0¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2028-01-01 05:00 UTC
561days
17hrs
57min
561.75 days·θ = 10.966 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 100.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 0.0%)
current: $0.9995 · expected return per side: $0.00 on YES hit · $1.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+280.9dRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.24% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 10.966 pp/day
now561.75d left
10.966 pp/day×1.00
−25%421.31d left
12.663 pp/day×1.15
−50%280.87d left
15.509 pp/day×1.41
−75%140.44d left
21.933 pp/day×2.00
−90%56.17d left
34.679 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.00% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.38%MILD BULLISH +8.45%BEST+4.00%2hWORST-0.20%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +1.09% · Σ +7.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.65%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.45%+8.45%0.00%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h4.00% · 2h4.00% · 2h4.00%2h★ BEST1.75% · 3h1.75% · 3h1.75%3h0.75% · 4h0.75% · 4h0.75%4h0.85% · 5h0.85% · 5h0.85%5h-0.20% · 6h-0.20% · 6h-0.20%6h▼ WORST0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.15% · 8h0.15% · 8h0.15%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.25% · 20h0.25% · 20h0.25%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+7.65%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 2BREADTH38% up · 13% down · 50% flat
9 up bars · 3 down · best 4.00% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.381%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +8.71% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+8.71%MAX DD-0.20%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+8.71%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0871 · peak 1.0871 · range [1.0000, 1.0871]1.08711.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0871UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.20% · shallow0%-0.20%▼ TROUGH -0.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.20%bar 7-17 · 11 bars · recovered#2 -0.15%bar 19-20 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.20%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.0871 (8.71%) · max DD -0.20% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −1 (84% positive) · μ=36.72 · σ=23.92PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 28.88 (-0.33σ vs μ)80.8840.440.00-40.44-80.88μ = 36.7280.8880.8872.4072.4071.4571.4555.5655.5633.8833.88-7.00-7.0038.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.0038.2138.2142.6842.6832.8232.8228.5828.5844.7244.7244.7244.7240.6640.6612.8812.8828.8828.88v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 28.884 · range [-7.00, 80.88] · μ 36.722 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=31.2329 · σ=41.9428 · range [0.0000, 144.1913] · R²=0.377▼ FALLING -92.68%σ EXTREME 134.29%LAST 10.1094144.1913108.143572.095636.04780.0000μ = 31.2329max 144.1913min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.38μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.11% · range [0.00%, 144.19%] · μ 31.23% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −12 (26% positive) · μ=-0.098 · σ=0.218MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.376 (-1.28σ vs μ)0.4250.2120.000-0.212-0.425μ = -0.098-0.020-0.0200.3040.3040.2730.2730.2050.205-0.267-0.2670.0190.019-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.0330.0590.059-0.314-0.314-0.228-0.228-0.341-0.341-0.425-0.425-0.292-0.292-0.152-0.152-0.376-0.376v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.376 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
223.7756
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.9550
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2229
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-5.3484
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6761
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5553
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0292
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.8348
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.558 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.54e-5 · top T=24.00h (22.8%) · top-3 cover 57.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-41.5e-41.0e-45.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.06e-4 · 22.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.06e-4 · 22.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.81e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.37e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.37e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.14e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.14e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.50e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.50e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.61e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.61e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.82e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.82e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.08e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.08e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.28e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.28e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.90e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.90e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.96e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.96e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.59e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.59e-6 · 0.8% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 22.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.044e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4949 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 561.7 d · σ/bar 0.164pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 19.01ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 4949✓ n = 4949
μ per bar
+0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.164pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.80pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move562d
19.01pp
σ × √13481.964234444444
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
100.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.27pp · ES₉₅ 0.34pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 4949
VaR 95%
0.27pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.34pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.0pp
peak 98.5¢ → trough 97.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
100.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.001
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-199900
risk $199900 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$0.05
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 100.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.00 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
10.97 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
70749292614232558716250644242412734998783894105402302831188022426018937644474
NO token ID
1533721320589650674292333405842567871521889045532909322736744570580011779715
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 11:01:53 UTC
Snapshot age
14.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 11:02:08 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9d93cb41194cb512725a9d12be148f96c14cb17f92ddfdca6a17e583e5cdfd57 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.6¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,136HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$72.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,747.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+1.000
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+1.000
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-o1-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch-167/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,949 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
233.89%
σ per bar = 0.001767
Mean return (annualised)
4914.50%
μ per bar = 0.000028
Sharpe (rf=0)
21.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.96%
peak 0.98 → trough 0.98 over 184 bars

/api/asset/pm-o1-fdv-above-100m-one-day-after-launch-167/risk · same metrics, JSON