POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5)

YES · live
55.0¢
NO · live
45.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14-game-handicap-away-2pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
192.14%
max drawdown
2.78%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.90%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.83
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.83
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
559
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14-game-handicap-away-2pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH21ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
55.0¢
NO · live
45.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=16 · μ=0.4569 · σ=0.1172 · range [0.2500, 0.7450] · R²=0.838▲ RISING +198.00%σ EXTREME 25.64%LAST 0.74500.74500.62120.49750.37380.2500μ = 0.4569max 0.7450min 0.2500dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
16 ticks · last 74.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 55.0%NO 45.0%YES55.0%55.00¢ · odds 1/1.82
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.993 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
55.0%55.0¢1.82×▬ +0.00pp
NO
45.0%45.0¢2.22×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=15 · Σ=5,350 · μ=356.7 · σ=562.5 · CV=1.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=904879751,4621,950μ = 3571,95050%h1h3h5h7h9h11h13h15#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 5350bp moved · peak 1950bp · n=15 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
21ms
▲YES mid
55.00¢ (55.00%)
▼NO mid
45.00¢ (45.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$32.0k
≋liquidity $
$9.8k
◳history points
16 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=16 · μ=0.4569 · σ=0.1172 · range [0.2500, 0.7450] · R²=0.838▲ RISING +198.00%σ EXTREME 25.64%LAST 0.74500.74500.62120.49750.37380.2500μ = 0.4569max 0.7450min 0.2500dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
16 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 74.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=16 · μ=0.5431 · σ=0.1172 · range [0.2550, 0.7500] · R²=0.838▼ FALLING -66.00%σ EXTREME 21.57%LAST 0.25500.75000.62620.50250.37880.2550μ = 0.5431max 0.7500min 0.2550dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
16 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 25.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=15 · 10 bins · μ=0.0317 · σ=0.0539 · skew=1.79 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.01 (leptokurtic (fat tails))9752090.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak22.07ppbin 2.07pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 2.07pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak14.12ppbin 4.12pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 4.12pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak6.17pp18.22ppbin 8.22pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 8.22pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak10.27pp112.32ppbin 12.32pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 12.32pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak14.37pp16.42pp118.47ppbin 18.47pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 18.47pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=15
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=15 · skew=1.80 · kurt=2.26 · near 5 / mid 8 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSFAT UPPER TAILTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=16RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.57)
μ MEAN45.69¢95% CI: [39.95¢, 51.43¢]
σ STD DEV11.72ppσ² = 137.262 · CV = 25.64%
med MEDIAN42.25¢Q₁ 37.50¢ · Q₃ 53.63¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 49.50pp · IQR 16.13pp (1.349σ→15.80pp)
min 25.00¢Q₁ 37.50¢med 42.25¢Q₃ 53.63¢max 74.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.570right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.067mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.29
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.23
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=15
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.032within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.039lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT+8.516significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.032k=2-0.039k=3-0.208k=4-0.180k=5-0.0490+1−1+0.52−0.52+ momentum (ρ > +0.52)− reversal (ρ < −0.52)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.52)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=15from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.03low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.52)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2537417
SLUGlol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14-game-handicap-away-2pt5
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (55¢)
PRIMARY · YES55.00¢implied prob 55.00% · decimal odds 1.82×
COUNTER · NO45.00¢implied prob 45.00% · decimal odds 2.22×
55.00¢
45.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME32.02k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY9.82k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (55¢)|primary − counter| = 0.100 · entropy 0.993 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 55.0%NO 45.0%YES p̂55.0%H = 0.993 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.82×(55¢)NO2.22×(45¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.993 bits (99% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 21:00 UTC
0days
05hrs
55min
5.9 hours·θ = 57.396 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 55.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 45.0%)
current: $0.5500 · expected return per side: $0.45 on YES hit · $0.55 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.0hRESOLVESP projection · σ=11.72% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 57.396 pp/day
now5.92h left
57.396 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.44h left
66.275 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.96h left
81.170 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.48h left
114.792 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.59h left
181.502 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=15 bars · best 19.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 3.57%MILD BULLISH +49.50%BEST+19.50%15hWORST-1.00%12hTYPICAL |Δ|3.57%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+49.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +1.93% · Σ +13.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +4.50% · Σ +36.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ n/a · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +49.50%+49.50%0.00%12.50% · 1h12.50% · 1h12.50%1h-0.50% · 2h-0.50% · 2h-0.50%2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h1.00% · 5h1.00% · 5h1.00%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h7.50% · 8h7.50% · 8h7.50%8h5.00% · 9h5.00% · 9h5.00%9h3.00% · 10h3.00% · 10h3.00%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h-1.00% · 12h-1.00% · 12h-1.00%12h▼ WORST2.00% · 13h2.00% · 13h2.00%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h19.50% · 15h19.50% · 15h19.50%15h★ BESTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+36.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH60% up · 20% down · 20% flat
9 up bars · 3 down · best 19.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 3.567%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=16 barsSTRONG PROFIT +59.40% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+59.40%MAX DD-1.49%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+59.40%UNDERWATER5/16 (31%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.5940 · peak 1.5940 · range [1.0000, 1.5940]1.59401.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.5940UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.49% · moderate0%-1.49%▼ TROUGH -1.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.49%bar 12-13 · 2 bars · recovered#2 -0.50%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.49%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER31% of session · 5/16 bars
final equity 1.5940 (59.40%) · max DD -1.49% · time-under-water 5/16 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=12 · +12 / −0 (100% positive) · μ=59.89 · σ=27.87PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 51.30 (-0.31σ vs μ)114.3357.170.00-57.17-114.33μ = 59.8946.7046.7036.2536.2573.3273.3246.8046.8055.0355.0378.0078.00114.33114.33103.88103.8853.0253.0242.4142.4117.6917.6951.3051.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 51.299 · range [17.69, 114.33] · μ 59.892 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=12 · μ=292.5151 · σ=247.5886 · range [44.8051, 896.5099] · R²=0.091▲ RISING +52.93%σ EXTREME 84.64%LAST 896.5099896.5099683.5837470.6575257.731344.8051μ = 292.5151max 896.5099min 44.8051dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 896.51% · range [44.81%, 896.51%] · μ 292.52% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=12 · +3 / −9 (25% positive) · μ=-0.169 · σ=0.287MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.116 (+0.18σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.169-0.138-0.138-0.350-0.350-0.750-0.750-0.417-0.417-0.115-0.1150.1020.102-0.363-0.3630.2030.2030.2960.296-0.219-0.219-0.155-0.155-0.116-0.116v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.116 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
19.0793
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.7741
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8799
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.1005
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9459
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6761
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6524
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0179
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=1

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.000 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=7 bins · noise floor μ=3.36e-3 · top T=7.50h (43.3%) · top-3 cover 72.7%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈7.5cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-27.6e-35.1e-32.5e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 15.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 15.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 7.5 · power 1.02e-2 · 43.3% energyperiod 7.5 · power 1.02e-2 · 43.3% energyperiod 5.0 · power 3.24e-3 · 13.8% energyperiod 5.0 · power 3.24e-3 · 13.8% energyperiod 3.8 · power 3.67e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 3.8 · power 3.67e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.29e-3 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.29e-3 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.5 · power 2.41e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 2.5 · power 2.41e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 2.1 · power 3.26e-4 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.1 · power 3.26e-4 · 1.4% energy50% by T=7.5h#1 dominantT=7.50h#2T=3.75h#3T=5.00hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 7.50h (freq 0.133) · concentrates 43.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.352e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (559 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.145pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.36ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2475 · n = 559✓ n = 559
μ per bar
+0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.145pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.71pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.36pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2475
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
55.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.23pp · ES₉₅ 0.29pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 559
VaR 95%
0.23pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.29pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.8pp
peak 54.0¢ → trough 52.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
55.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.818
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-122
risk $122 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.82 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$81.82
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 55.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.993 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.993 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.86 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.15 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
113709924183019219524333482556501427537197890507250147300600846597738277177362
NO token ID
99387037472882292200050395288491656463190505024977137759617462142771153457998
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:04:53 UTC
Snapshot age
21ms
History points
16 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:04:53 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
262ce56b14ff7df1c71e8561a01c60f695a003437d60fd231515b9a5ebe345e4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,110.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.55HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.52

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.545000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1284.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.174
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.502
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14-game-handicap-away-2pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.580000642.20bp0.5800001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.8718765997.73bp0.9900006FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9184856852.94bp0.9900006PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.510000642.20bp0.5100001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0803008526.61bp0.01000014PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0803008526.61bp0.01000014PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 559 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
358.52%
σ per bar = 0.002708
Mean return (annualised)
14614.66%
μ per bar = 0.000083
Sharpe (rf=0)
40.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.78%
peak 0.54 → trough 0.53 over 48 bars

/api/asset/pm-lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14-game-handicap-away-2pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON