POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs

YES · live
97.5¢
NO · live
2.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
216.35%
max drawdown
1.10%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.58%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.30%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
4.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
4.97
upside/downside
roll spread
1.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
969
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
97.5¢
NO · live
2.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=17 · μ=0.8831 · σ=0.0432 · range [0.8350, 0.9765] · R²=0.793▲ RISING +14.21%σ NORMAL 4.90%LAST 0.97650.97650.94110.90580.87040.8350μ = 0.8831max 0.9765min 0.8350dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
17 ticks · last 97.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 97.5%NO 2.5%YES97.5%97.45¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.171 / 1.00 bits (17%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
97.5%97.5¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
NO
2.5%2.5¢39.22×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=16 · Σ=2,215 · μ=138.4 · σ=191.0 · CV=1.38BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120189378566755μ = 13875550%h1h3h5h7h9h11h13h15#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2215bp moved · peak 755bp · n=16 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
97.45¢ (97.45%)
▼NO mid
2.55¢ (2.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$40.3k
≋liquidity $
$16.9k
◳history points
17 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=17 · μ=0.8831 · σ=0.0432 · range [0.8350, 0.9765] · R²=0.793▲ RISING +14.21%σ NORMAL 4.90%LAST 0.97650.97650.94110.90580.87040.8350μ = 0.8831max 0.9765min 0.8350dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
17 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=17 · μ=0.1167 · σ=0.0438 · range [0.0235, 0.1650] · R²=0.788▼ FALLING -83.79%σ EXTREME 37.49%LAST 0.02350.16500.12960.09430.05890.0235μ = 0.1167max 0.1650min 0.0235dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
17 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=16 · 10 bins · μ=0.0104 · σ=0.0199 · skew=1.75 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.93 (leptokurtic (fat tails))543101-1.52ppbin -1.52pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -1.52pp · n=1 · 20.0% peak3-0.57ppbin -0.57pp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -0.57pp · n=3 · 60.0% peak50.39ppbin 0.39pp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 0.39pp · n=5 · 100.0% peak51.34ppbin 1.34pp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 1.34pp · n=5 · 100.0% peak2.30pp3.25pp14.21ppbin 4.21pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 4.21pp · n=1 · 20.0% peak5.16pp6.12pp17.07ppbin 7.07pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 7.07pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=16
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=16 · skew=1.86 · kurt=3.42 · near 10 / mid 5 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.91 intercept=0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=17RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.76)
μ MEAN88.31¢95% CI: [86.25¢, 90.36¢]
σ STD DEV4.32ppσ² = 18.699 · CV = 4.90%
med MEDIAN89.50¢Q₁ 85.50¢ · Q₃ 90.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 14.15pp · IQR 5.00pp (1.349σ→5.83pp)
min 83.50¢Q₁ 85.50¢med 89.50¢Q₃ 90.50¢max 97.65¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.761right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.375mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.28
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.17
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=16
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.182within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.016lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.055strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.572significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.055
H = 1.055STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.182k=2+0.016k=3-0.144k=4+0.024k=5-0.1400+1−1+0.50−0.50+ momentum (ρ > +0.50)− reversal (ρ < −0.50)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.57)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=16from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.57)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2537413
SLUGlol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES97.45¢implied prob 97.45% · decimal odds 1.03×
COUNTER · NO2.55¢implied prob 2.55% · decimal odds 39.22×
97.45¢
2.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME40.35k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY16.91k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.949 · entropy 0.171 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 97.5%NO 2.5%YES p̂97.5%H = 0.171 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.03×(97¢)NO39.22×(3¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.171 bits (17% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 21:00 UTC
0days
04hrs
52min
4.9 hours·θ = 21.184 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 97.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 2.5%)
current: $0.9745 · expected return per side: $0.03 on YES hit · $0.97 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.4hRESOLVESP projection · σ=4.32% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 21.184 pp/day
now4.87h left
21.184 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.66h left
24.462 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.44h left
29.959 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.22h left
42.369 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.49h left
66.991 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=16 bars · best 7.55% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 1.38%MILD BULLISH +12.15%BEST+7.55%15hWORST-2.00%1hTYPICAL |Δ|1.38%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+12.15%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +1.44% · Σ +11.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.60% · Σ +0.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +12.15%+12.15%-2.00%-2.00% · 1h-2.00% · 1h-2.00%1h▼ WORST0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h1.00% · 4h1.00% · 4h1.00%4h1.00% · 5h1.00% · 5h1.00%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h4.00% · 8h4.00% · 8h4.00%8h1.00% · 9h1.00% · 9h1.00%9h-1.00% · 10h-1.00% · 10h-1.00%10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h-1.00% · 12h-1.00% · 12h-1.00%12h1.00% · 13h1.00% · 13h1.00%13h-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h7.55% · 15h7.55% · 15h7.55%15h★ BEST0.60% · 16h0.60% · 16h0.60%16hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+11.55%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH50% up · 25% down · 25% flat
8 up bars · 4 down · best 7.55% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 1.384%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=17 barsPROFITABLE +12.46%FINAL+12.46%MAX DD-2.00%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+12.46%UNDERWATER12/17 (71%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1246 · peak 1.1246 · range [0.9800, 1.1246]1.12460.9800break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1246UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.00% · moderate0%-2.00%▼ TROUGH -2.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.00%bar 2-8 · 7 bars · recovered#2 -1.02%bar 11-15 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.00%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER71% of session · 12/17 bars
final equity 1.1246 (12.46%) · max DD -2.00% · time-under-water 12/17 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=13 · +9 / −1 (69% positive) · μ=41.28 · σ=34.91PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 50.51 (+0.26σ vs μ)81.0640.530.00-40.53-81.06μ = 41.28-18.60-18.6081.0681.0681.0681.0681.0681.0661.8061.8061.8061.8043.3343.3356.7556.750.000.000.000.000.000.0037.8237.8250.5150.51v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 50.513 · range [-18.60, 81.06] · μ 41.276 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=13 · μ=160.4812 · σ=105.0769 · range [54.0370, 379.3263] · R²=0.450▲ RISING +200.02%σ EXTREME 65.48%LAST 353.3413379.3263298.0040216.6817135.359454.0370μ = 160.4812max 379.3263min 54.0370dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 353.34% · range [54.04%, 379.33%] · μ 160.48% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=13 · +3 / −10 (23% positive) · μ=-0.256 · σ=0.349MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.503 (-0.71σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.256-0.013-0.0130.2500.250-0.250-0.2500.2500.250-0.145-0.145-0.238-0.238-0.214-0.2140.0340.034-0.750-0.750-0.750-0.750-0.750-0.750-0.248-0.248-0.503-0.503v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.503 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
29.8363
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.6307
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8975
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.1235
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9661
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1498
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2502
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6215
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0207
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7269
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4673
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.818 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=8 bins · noise floor μ=4.95e-4 · top T=2.29h (19.3%) · top-3 cover 53.2%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)7.6e-45.7e-43.8e-41.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 16.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 16.0 · power 1.61e-5 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.01e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.01e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 5.3 · power 6.22e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 5.3 · power 6.22e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.29e-4 · 15.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.29e-4 · 15.9% energyperiod 3.2 · power 7.12e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 3.2 · power 7.12e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.12e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.12e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.3 · power 7.64e-4 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.3 · power 7.64e-4 · 19.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.02e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.02e-4 · 7.6% energy50% by T=3.2h#1 dominantT=2.29h#2T=3.20h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.29h (freq 0.438) · concentrates 19.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.958e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (969 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.163pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.40ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0248 · n = 969✓ n = 969
μ per bar
+0.008pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.163pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.80pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.40pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0248
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
97.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.26pp · ES₉₅ 0.33pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.008pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 969
VaR 95%
0.26pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.33pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.1pp
peak 90.5¢ → trough 89.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
97.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.026
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-3822
risk $3822 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.03 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2.62
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 97.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.171 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.171 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.04 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
5.29 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
73743610801867529999304673666951649957587153699330308059329831509461864643086
NO token ID
56381544390145734362789328426958092813905573343722632831942825739205923171120
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:07:34 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
17 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:07:34 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0a9bbfbe6bf17a254bff186870be878ab4d6f464bd67a402b5d2ad955dd42bef · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$434
bid $10 · ask $424
Mid price
0.975500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
92.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.961
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.347
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.98494496.81bp0.9890004FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.992485174.11bp0.9990008PARTIAL
BUY$100.00K0.992485174.11bp0.9990008PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.958335175.96bp0.9520005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2629577304.39bp0.04000040FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0376579613.98bp0.00100048PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 969 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
235.16%
σ per bar = 0.001776
Mean return (annualised)
15411.38%
μ per bar = 0.000088
Sharpe (rf=0)
65.54
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.10%
peak 0.91 → trough 0.90 over 219 bars

/api/asset/pm-lol-sly-ucam1-2026-06-14/risk · same metrics, JSON