POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18-game1 · fresh · feed 8s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
816.98%
max drawdown
99.89%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
77.56%
RMS drawdown
pain index
62.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
99.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.12
upside/downside
roll spread
48.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1079
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18-game1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=15 · μ=0.3268 · σ=0.2060 · range [0.0005, 0.4800] · R²=0.497▼ FALLING -99.87%σ EXTREME 63.02%LAST 0.00050.48000.36010.24020.12040.0005μ = 0.3268max 0.4800min 0.0005dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
15 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=14 · Σ=6,045 · μ=431.8 · σ=1172.9 · CV=2.72BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1101,1112,2233,3344,445μ = 4324,44550%h1h3h5h7h9h11h13#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6045bp moved · peak 4445bp · n=14 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.8s
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$301.0k
≋liquidity $
$312.4k
◳history points
15 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=15 · μ=0.3268 · σ=0.2060 · range [0.0005, 0.4800] · R²=0.497▼ FALLING -99.87%σ EXTREME 63.02%LAST 0.00050.48000.36010.24020.12040.0005μ = 0.3268max 0.4800min 0.0005dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
15 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=15 · μ=0.6732 · σ=0.2060 · range [0.5200, 0.9995] · R²=0.497▲ RISING +65.21%σ EXTREME 30.59%LAST 0.99950.99950.87960.75980.63990.5200μ = 0.6732max 0.9995min 0.5200dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
15 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=14 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0249 · σ=0.1099 · skew=-3.24 (left-skewed) · kurt=8.73 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296301-41.83ppbin -41.83pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -41.83pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-36.58pp-31.34pp-26.09pp-20.85pp-15.60pp-10.36pp-5.11pp120.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak15.38ppbin 5.38pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 5.38pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=14
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=14 · skew=-3.10 · kurt=8.25 · near 3 / mid 8 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.68 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.74σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=15LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.89)
μ MEAN32.68¢95% CI: [22.26¢, 43.10¢]
σ STD DEV20.60ppσ² = 424.198 · CV = 63.02%
med MEDIAN44.50¢Q₁ 19.28¢ · Q₃ 47.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 47.95pp · IQR 27.73pp (1.349σ→27.78pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 19.28¢med 44.50¢Q₃ 47.00¢max 48.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.887left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.203platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.57
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.00
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.33
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.033within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.048lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.586significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.033k=2-0.048k=3-0.104k=4+0.017k=5-0.0200+1−1+0.53−0.53+ momentum (ρ > +0.53)− reversal (ρ < −0.53)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.59)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.03low · ~ unpredictable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.59)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2584908
SLUGlol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18-game1
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME301.01k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY312.40k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-18 10:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
09min
9 minutes·θ = 100.900 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 100.0%)
current: $0.0005 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.1hRESOLVESP projection · σ=20.60% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 100.900 pp/day
now0.16h left
100.900 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.12h left
116.509 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.08h left
142.694 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.04h left
201.799 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.02h left
319.073 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=14 bars · best 8.00% · worst -44.45% · typical |Δ| 4.32%BEARISH SESSION -39.45%BEST+8.00%3hWORST-44.45%11hTYPICAL |Δ|4.32%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-39.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.86% · Σ +6.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -6.49% · Σ -45.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ n/a · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -39.45%+8.50%-39.45%-1.00% · 1h-1.00% · 1h-1.00%1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h8.00% · 3h8.00% · 3h8.00%3h★ BEST0.50% · 4h0.50% · 4h0.50%4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-2.00% · 7h-2.00% · 7h-2.00%7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h-1.00% · 9h-1.00% · 9h-1.00%9h-1.00% · 10h-1.00% · 10h-1.00%10h-44.45% · 11h-44.45% · 11h-44.45%11h▼ WORST0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+6.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 43% down · 29% flat
4 up bars · 6 down · best 8.00% · worst -44.45% · typical |Δ| 4.318%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=15 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -41.81%FINAL-41.81%MAX DD-46.38%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+8.53%UNDERWATER12/15 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.5819 · peak 1.0853 · range [0.5819, 1.0853]1.08530.5819break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0853UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -46.38% · severe0%-46.38%▼ TROUGH -46.38%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -46.38%bar 6-15 · 10 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -46.38%)RECOVERYongoing · 10 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 12/15 bars
final equity 0.5819 (-41.81%) · max DD -46.38% · time-under-water 12/15 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=11 · +3 / −8 (27% positive) · μ=-18.71 · σ=44.84UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -46.80 (-0.63σ vs μ)55.7927.890.00-27.89-55.79μ = -18.7149.6349.6354.2254.2246.5646.56-43.33-43.33-28.08-28.08-36.25-36.25-55.79-55.79-48.17-48.17-49.64-49.64-48.20-48.20-46.80-46.80v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -46.797 · range [-55.79, 54.22] · μ -18.713 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=11 · μ=893.8763 · σ=934.8398 · range [101.0940, 2080.1460] · R²=0.613▲ RISING +454.54%σ EXTREME 104.58%LAST 2080.14602080.14601585.38301090.6200595.8570101.0940μ = 893.8763max 2080.1460min 101.0940dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 2080.15% · range [101.09%, 2080.15%] · μ 893.88% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=11 · +0 / −11 (0% positive) · μ=-0.332 · σ=0.239MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.083 (+1.04σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.332-0.262-0.262-0.275-0.275-0.005-0.005-0.214-0.214-0.617-0.617-0.750-0.750-0.539-0.539-0.073-0.073-0.429-0.429-0.404-0.404-0.083-0.083v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.083 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
123.5483
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.2891
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9874
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.4859
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8893
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.5620
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5741
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3948
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0794
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=1

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.000 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=7 bins · noise floor μ=1.48e-2 · top T=14.00h (19.6%) · top-3 cover 53.0%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-21.5e-21.0e-25.1e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 14.0 · power 2.03e-2 · 19.6% energyperiod 14.0 · power 2.03e-2 · 19.6% energyperiod 7.0 · power 1.07e-2 · 10.3% energyperiod 7.0 · power 1.07e-2 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.7 · power 1.69e-2 · 16.3% energyperiod 4.7 · power 1.69e-2 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.5 · power 1.58e-2 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.5 · power 1.58e-2 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.8 · power 9.27e-3 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.8 · power 9.27e-3 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 1.76e-2 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 1.76e-2 · 17.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.29e-2 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.29e-2 · 12.5% energy50% by T=3.5h#1 dominantT=14.00h#2T=2.33h#3T=4.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 14.00h (freq 0.071) · concentrates 19.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.033e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1079 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.617pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.51ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 1079✓ n = 1079
μ per bar
-0.042pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.617pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.51pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.06pp · ES₉₅ 1.32pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.042pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 2.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1079
VaR 95%
1.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.32pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
99.9pp
peak 47.0¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
2.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
101027606284125418084928717755619672691286185008943833448581441692418611602990
NO token ID
14746640221615989471679829319390745956348551633326580200922499014520231978676
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 09:50:29 UTC
Snapshot age
7.8s
History points
15 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 09:50:37 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
01843812b988f0e60319f4b1e3adedd63d36780954fcd4b595a8293a30181072 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18-game1/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,079 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
17662.17%
σ per bar = 0.133421
Mean return (annualised)
-1107608.94%
μ per bar = -0.006320
Sharpe (rf=0)
-62.71
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
99.89%
peak 0.47 → trough 0.00 over 125 bars

/api/asset/pm-lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18-game1/risk · same metrics, JSON