POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs

YES · live
72.0¢
NO · live
28.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18 · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1682.37%
max drawdown
75.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
30.19%
RMS drawdown
pain index
19.62%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
63.88%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.37
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.37
upside/downside
roll spread
15.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1179
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING11.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
72.0¢
NO · live
28.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=15 · μ=0.4003 · σ=0.1050 · range [0.2250, 0.7250] · R²=0.071▲ RISING +110.14%σ EXTREME 26.22%LAST 0.72500.72500.60000.47500.35000.2250μ = 0.4003max 0.7250min 0.2250dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
15 ticks · last 72.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 72.0%NO 28.0%YES72.0%72.00¢ · odds 1/1.39
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.855 / 1.00 bits (86%) · high uncertainty
YES
72.0%72.0¢1.39×▬ +0.00pp
NO
28.0%28.0¢3.57×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=14 · Σ=10,300 · μ=735.7 · σ=1141.3 · CV=1.55BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1201,0252,0503,0754,100μ = 7364,10050%h1h3h5h7h9h11h13#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 10300bp moved · peak 4100bp · n=14 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11.8s
▲YES mid
72.00¢ (72.00%)
▼NO mid
28.00¢ (28.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$340.7k
≋liquidity $
$18.9k
◳history points
15 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=15 · μ=0.4003 · σ=0.1050 · range [0.2250, 0.7250] · R²=0.071▲ RISING +110.14%σ EXTREME 26.22%LAST 0.72500.72500.60000.47500.35000.2250μ = 0.4003max 0.7250min 0.2250dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
15 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 72.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=15 · μ=0.6017 · σ=0.0998 · range [0.3000, 0.7750] · R²=0.062▼ FALLING -54.20%σ EXTREME 16.59%LAST 0.30000.77500.65630.53750.41880.3000μ = 0.6017max 0.7750min 0.3000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
15 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 30.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=14 · 10 bins · μ=0.0297 · σ=0.1251 · skew=1.49 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.06 (leptokurtic (fat tails))543101-14.58ppbin -14.58pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -14.58pp · n=1 · 20.0% peak1-8.73ppbin -8.73pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -8.73pp · n=1 · 20.0% peak5-2.88ppbin -2.88pp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -2.88pp · n=5 · 100.0% peak42.97ppbin 2.97pp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 2.97pp · n=4 · 80.0% peak18.82ppbin 8.82pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 8.82pp · n=1 · 20.0% peak14.67pp120.52ppbin 20.52pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 20.52pp · n=1 · 20.0% peak26.37pp32.22pp138.07ppbin 38.07pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 38.07pp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=14
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=14 · skew=1.63 · kurt=3.07 · near 6 / mid 7 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSFAT UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=15LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.66)
μ MEAN40.03¢95% CI: [34.72¢, 45.34¢]
σ STD DEV10.50ppσ² = 110.160 · CV = 26.22%
med MEDIAN40.50¢Q₁ 35.25¢ · Q₃ 41.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 50.00pp · IQR 6.25pp (1.349σ→14.16pp)
min 22.50¢Q₁ 35.25¢med 40.50¢Q₃ 41.50¢max 72.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.607right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.665leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.27
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.76
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.379within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.417lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.999fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.379k=2+0.417k=3-0.321k=4+0.038k=5-0.0580+1−1+0.53−0.53+ momentum (ρ > +0.53)− reversal (ρ < −0.53)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.00)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.38 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.38high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.00)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2584912
SLUGlol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (72¢)
PRIMARY · YES72.00¢implied prob 72.00% · decimal odds 1.39×
COUNTER · NO28.00¢implied prob 28.00% · decimal odds 3.57×
72.00¢
28.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME340.75k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY18.92k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (72¢)|primary − counter| = 0.440 · entropy 0.855 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 72.0%NO 28.0%YES p̂72.0%H = 0.855 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.39×(72¢)NO3.57×(28¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.855 bits (86% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 12:00 UTC
0days
02hrs
12min
2.2 hours·θ = 51.418 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 72.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 28.0%)
current: $0.7200 · expected return per side: $0.28 on YES hit · $0.72 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.1hRESOLVESP projection · σ=10.50% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 51.418 pp/day
now2.20h left
51.418 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.65h left
59.373 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.10h left
72.716 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.55h left
102.836 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.22h left
162.599 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=14 bars · best 41.00% · worst -17.50% · typical |Δ| 7.36%MILD BULLISH +38.00%BEST+41.00%14hWORST-17.50%11hTYPICAL |Δ|7.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+38.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +1.00% · Σ +7.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +4.43% · Σ +31.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ n/a · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +38.00%+38.00%-12.00%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h6.00% · 3h6.00% · 3h6.00%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h2.00% · 5h2.00% · 5h2.00%5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h-1.00% · 8h-1.00% · 8h-1.00%8h-3.00% · 9h-3.00% · 9h-3.00%9h2.50% · 10h2.50% · 10h2.50%10h-17.50% · 11h-17.50% · 11h-17.50%11h▼ WORST18.00% · 12h18.00% · 12h18.00%12h-9.00% · 13h-9.00% · 13h-9.00%13h41.00% · 14h41.00% · 14h41.00%14h★ BESTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+31.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 43% down · 7% flat
7 up bars · 6 down · best 41.00% · worst -17.50% · typical |Δ| 7.357%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=15 barsPROFITABLE +31.59%FINAL+31.59%MAX DD-20.41%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+31.59%UNDERWATER8/15 (53%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.3159 · peak 1.3159 · range [0.8691, 1.3159]1.31590.8691break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.3159UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -20.41% · severe0%-20.41%▼ TROUGH -20.41%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -20.41%bar 7-14 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -20.41%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER53% of session · 8/15 bars
final equity 1.3159 (31.59%) · max DD -20.41% · time-under-water 8/15 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=11 · +4 / −5 (36% positive) · μ=-2.64 · σ=59.54MIXED EDGELAST 28.55 (+0.52σ vs μ)140.3970.200.00-70.20-140.39μ = -2.6457.6157.6173.1373.1352.9152.910.000.00-15.60-15.60-140.39-140.39-25.58-25.58-50.53-50.530.000.00-9.14-9.1428.5528.55v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 28.552 · range [-140.39, 73.13] · μ -2.639 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=11 · μ=683.4870 · σ=775.8094 · range [93.5949, 2492.8513] · R²=0.639▲ RISING +836.80%σ EXTREME 113.51%LAST 2492.85132492.85131893.03721293.2231693.409093.5949μ = 683.4870max 2492.8513min 93.5949dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 2492.85% · range [93.59%, 2492.85%] · μ 683.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=11 · +0 / −11 (0% positive) · μ=-0.384 · σ=0.219MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.463 (-0.36σ vs μ)0.7370.3690.000-0.369-0.737μ = -0.384-0.461-0.461-0.643-0.643-0.298-0.298-0.167-0.167-0.083-0.083-0.083-0.083-0.407-0.407-0.315-0.315-0.567-0.567-0.737-0.737-0.463-0.463v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.463 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
23.1547
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.8467
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0961
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.8510
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0516
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7878
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1517
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4411
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=1

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.000 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=7 bins · noise floor μ=2.02e-2 · top T=2.00h (34.0%) · top-3 cover 76.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.8e-23.6e-22.4e-21.2e-20.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 14.0 · power 1.62e-2 · 11.4% energyperiod 14.0 · power 1.62e-2 · 11.4% energyperiod 7.0 · power 1.02e-2 · 7.2% energyperiod 7.0 · power 1.02e-2 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.7 · power 8.31e-3 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.7 · power 8.31e-3 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.5 · power 3.15e-3 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.5 · power 3.15e-3 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.8 · power 1.19e-2 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.8 · power 1.19e-2 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.36e-2 · 30.8% energyperiod 2.3 · power 4.36e-2 · 30.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.80e-2 · 34.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.80e-2 · 34.0% energy50% by T=2.3h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.33h#3T=14.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 34.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.414e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1179 bars · effective 1752324 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 1.271pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.11ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2016 · n = 1179✓ n = 1179
μ per bar
+0.027pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.271pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
6.23pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
3.11pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2016
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
72.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.06pp · ES₉₅ 2.60pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.027pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 1179
VaR 95%
2.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.60pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
75.0pp
peak 42.0¢ → trough 10.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
72.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.389
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-257
risk $257 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.39 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$38.89
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 72.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.855 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.855 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.47 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.84 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
111641714418466514213479827715756820753539644820916513597097542002815655683957
NO token ID
82948690653888533372235268169593271558212429008211287130992214586745960940357
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 09:47:47 UTC
Snapshot age
11.8s
History points
15 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 09:47:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2466fe780d6a91b91c28438e3a0b26a3ef4a9f3b2d1df8b0a511b6c3b998daba · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.3¢HL PREDCanada76.0¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.5¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,251HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.85HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,747

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Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.675000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
148.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.699
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.792
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.7937071758.63bp0.8100008FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.9108373493.88bp0.97000020FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9732274418.17bp0.99000022PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.651625346.30bp0.6400003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1833437283.81bp0.05000033FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0412889388.32bp0.01000037PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,179 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
5858.78%
σ per bar = 0.044259
Mean return (annualised)
85587.80%
μ per bar = 0.000488
Sharpe (rf=0)
14.61
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
75.00%
peak 0.42 → trough 0.10 over 217 bars

/api/asset/pm-lol-dkc-t1a-2026-06-18/risk · same metrics, JSON