POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · KHARG ISLAND NO LONGER UNDER IRANIAN CONTROL BY...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?

YES · live
1.8¢
NO · live
98.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-24 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 71.43%
realized vol (ann.)
13.07%
max drawdown
13.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
6.95%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.62%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
13.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.73
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.73
upside/downside
roll spread
2.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
71.43%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +71.43%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-24/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH16ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.8¢
NO · live
98.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0130 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.0065, 0.0190] · R²=0.714▲ RISING +71.43%σ EXTREME 24.50%LAST 0.01800.01900.01590.01270.00960.0065μ = 0.0130max 0.0190min 0.0065dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.80¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.8%NO 98.2%NO98.2%98.20¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.130 / 1.00 bits (13%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.8%1.8¢55.56×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.2%98.2¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=395 · μ=16.5 · σ=15.6 · CV=0.95BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10014284155μ = 165550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 395bp moved · peak 55bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16ms
▲YES mid
1.80¢ (1.80%)
▼NO mid
98.20¢ (98.20%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$97.1k
≋liquidity $
$50.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0130 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.0065, 0.0190] · R²=0.714▲ RISING +71.43%σ EXTREME 24.50%LAST 0.01800.01900.01590.01270.00960.0065μ = 0.0130max 0.0190min 0.0065dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.80¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9870 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.9810, 0.9935] · R²=0.714▼ FALLING -0.76%σ LOW 0.32%LAST 0.98200.99350.99040.98720.98410.9810μ = 0.9870max 0.9935min 0.9810dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.20¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0021 · skew=0.53 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.03 (mesokurtic)653201-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -0.40pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-0.30pp2-0.20ppbin -0.20pp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -0.20pp · n=2 · 33.3% peak6-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -0.10pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak60.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=6 · 100.0% peak40.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 0.10pp · n=4 · 66.7% peak10.20ppbin 0.20pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 0.20pp · n=1 · 16.7% peak0.30pp30.40ppbin 0.40pp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 0.40pp · n=3 · 50.0% peak10.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 0.50pp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.43 · kurt=0.18 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.30¢95% CI: [1.17¢, 1.42¢]
σ STD DEV0.32ppσ² = 0.101 · CV = 24.50%
med MEDIAN1.40¢Q₁ 1.05¢ · Q₃ 1.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.25pp · IQR 0.45pp (1.349σ→0.43pp)
min 0.65¢Q₁ 1.05¢med 1.40¢Q₃ 1.50¢max 1.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.033approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.824mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.33
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.94
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.402within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.032lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.043strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.583significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.043
H = 1.043STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.402k=2-0.032k=3+0.028k=4-0.077k=5+0.0300+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.58)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.58)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2507608
SLUGkharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-24
CATEGORYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.80¢implied prob 1.80% · decimal odds 55.56×
COUNTER · NO98.20¢implied prob 98.20% · decimal odds 1.02×
1.80¢
98.20¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME97.07k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY50.40k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.964 · entropy 0.130 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.8%NO 98.2%YES p̂1.8%H = 0.130 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES55.56×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.130 bits (13% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 23:55 UTC
16days
07hrs
38min
16.32 days·θ = 1.556 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.2%)
current: $0.0180 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+8.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.32% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.556 pp/day
now16.32d left
1.556 pp/day×1.00
−25%12.24d left
1.796 pp/day×1.15
−50%8.16d left
2.200 pp/day×1.41
−75%4.08d left
3.111 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.63d left
4.919 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.55% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.16%MILD BULLISH +0.75%BEST+0.55%11hWORST-0.45%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.16%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.75%+0.85%-0.40%-0.20% · 1h-0.20% · 1h-0.20%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h-0.25% · 3h-0.25% · 3h-0.25%3h0.40% · 4h0.40% · 4h0.40%4h0.10% · 5h0.10% · 5h0.10%5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h-0.15% · 7h-0.15% · 7h-0.15%7h0.10% · 8h0.10% · 8h0.10%8h0.35% · 9h0.35% · 9h0.35%9h-0.45% · 10h-0.45% · 10h-0.45%10h▼ WORST0.55% · 11h0.55% · 11h0.55%11h★ BEST0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h0.10% · 14h0.10% · 14h0.10%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h0.40% · 22h0.40% · 22h0.40%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.55%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH42% up · 42% down · 17% flat
10 up bars · 10 down · best 0.55% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.165%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.75%FINAL+0.75%MAX DD-0.45%RECOVERYONGOING · 1 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.85%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0075 · peak 1.0085 · range [0.9960, 1.0085]1.00850.9960break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0085UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.45% · shallow0%-0.45%▼ TROUGH -0.45%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -0.45%bar 11-11 · 1 bars · recovered#2 -0.40%bar 2-5 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.20%bar 14-22 · 9 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.45%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0075 (0.75%) · max DD -0.45% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −4 (68% positive) · μ=10.51 · σ=21.49PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 31.73 (+0.99σ vs μ)54.1127.050.00-27.05-54.11μ = 10.513.313.316.866.8610.1910.1954.1154.11-5.75-5.7515.2415.2417.5317.5320.0420.0420.0420.044.824.8228.7228.720.000.00-15.87-15.87-15.87-15.87-38.21-38.210.000.0040.1940.1922.5722.5731.7331.73v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 31.732 · range [-38.21, 54.11] · μ 10.508 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=20.9616 · σ=8.8675 · range [7.6420, 33.5400] · R²=0.238▼ FALLING -16.47%σ EXTREME 42.30%LAST 18.404333.540027.065520.591014.11657.6420μ = 20.9616max 33.5400min 7.6420dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 18.40% · range [7.64%, 33.54%] · μ 20.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.302 · σ=0.317MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.011 (+0.99σ vs μ)0.6850.3430.000-0.343-0.685μ = -0.302-0.325-0.325-0.285-0.285-0.306-0.3060.2010.201-0.356-0.356-0.580-0.580-0.673-0.673-0.667-0.667-0.685-0.685-0.510-0.510-0.052-0.052-0.500-0.500-0.592-0.592-0.247-0.247-0.533-0.533-0.125-0.1250.3880.3880.1050.1050.0110.011v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.011 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1411
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5652
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.6476
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4615
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5159
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5258
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.8379
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0661
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7886
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0076
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8387
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0660
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.440 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.93e-6 · top T=2.18h (25.1%) · top-3 cover 56.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-51.1e-57.4e-63.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.28e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.28e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.64e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.64e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.43e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.43e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.26e-6 · 10.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.26e-6 · 10.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.83e-7 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.83e-7 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.89e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.89e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-5 · 18.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.59e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.59e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.14e-6 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.14e-6 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.13e-6 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.13e-6 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-5 · 25.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-5 · 25.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.0% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 25.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.921e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3846 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 16.3 d · σ/bar 0.015pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.30ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0177 · n = 3846✓ n = 3846
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.015pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
0.30pp
σ × √391.6382247222223
Terminal variancebinary
0.0177
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3846
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
29.6pp
peak 1.4¢ → trough 0.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
55.556
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+5456
$100 wins $5456
FractionalUK
54.56 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5455.56
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.130 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.130 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.80 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
69782293974144785102282236876053180560126734543309940200451468607308697565865
NO token ID
24194107926287826161368177745767715467259212595260402050496401713454181705699
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:16:42 UTC
Snapshot age
16ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:16:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f7d8927fc7fdf2e65b7916738543d3bc0a4a48ce5876c602da75a8d76dff2149 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,093.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.018000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2222.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.441
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.716
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-24/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.03719910665.91bp0.06700024FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.223157113975.91bp0.61000047FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.669080361710.96bp0.97000074FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0039047830.94bp0.00100013PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0039047830.94bp0.00100013PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0039047830.94bp0.00100013PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,846 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1642.54%
σ per bar = 0.012406
Mean return (annualised)
24571.10%
μ per bar = 0.000140
Sharpe (rf=0)
14.96
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
29.63%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 99 bars

/api/asset/pm-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-june-24/risk · same metrics, JSON