POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - MORE MARKETS

Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5

YES · live
3.5¢
NO · live
96.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-total-5pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
268.68%
max drawdown
88.89%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
61.89%
RMS drawdown
pain index
48.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
88.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.74
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.74
upside/downside
roll spread
25.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
362
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-total-5pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH15ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.5¢
NO · live
96.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0448 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.0055, 0.0550] · R²=0.420▼ FALLING -45.45%σ EXTREME 21.53%LAST 0.03000.05500.04260.03020.01790.0055μ = 0.0448max 0.0550min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.5%NO 96.5%NO96.5%96.55¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.216 / 1.00 bits (22%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.5%3.5¢28.99×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.5%96.5¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=840 · μ=35.0 · σ=92.5 · CV=2.64BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=23099198296395μ = 3539550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 840bp moved · peak 395bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
15ms
▲YES mid
3.45¢ (3.45%)
▼NO mid
96.55¢ (96.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$105.4k
≋liquidity $
$82.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0448 · σ=0.0096 · range [0.0055, 0.0550] · R²=0.420▼ FALLING -45.45%σ EXTREME 21.53%LAST 0.03000.05500.04260.03020.01790.0055μ = 0.0448max 0.0550min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.42μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9550 · σ=0.0094 · range [0.9450, 0.9945] · R²=0.400▲ RISING +2.17%σ LOW 0.98%LAST 0.96550.99450.98210.96980.95740.9450μ = 0.9550max 0.9945min 0.9450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.40μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0089 · skew=-2.42 (left-skewed) · kurt=10.38 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410501-3.63ppbin -3.63pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -3.63pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-2.99pp-2.35pp-1.71pp-1.07pp3-0.43ppbin -0.43pp · n=3 · 15.8% peakbin -0.43pp · n=3 · 15.8% peak190.21ppbin 0.21pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin 0.21pp · n=19 · 100.0% peak0.85pp1.49pp12.13ppbin 2.13pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 2.13pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.86 · kurt=9.57 · near 6 / mid 15 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.72 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.95σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=8.46)
μ MEAN4.48¢95% CI: [4.10¢, 4.86¢]
σ STD DEV0.96ppσ² = 0.931 · CV = 21.53%
med MEDIAN4.50¢Q₁ 4.50¢ · Q₃ 4.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.95pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→1.30pp)
min 0.55¢Q₁ 4.50¢med 4.50¢Q₃ 4.50¢max 5.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-2.652left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂8.458leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.13
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.468negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.006lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.690strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.081significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.690
H = 1.690STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.468k=2-0.006k=3+0.005k=4-0.004k=5-0.0020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2326750
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-total-5pt5
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.45¢implied prob 3.45% · decimal odds 28.99×
COUNTER · NO96.55¢implied prob 96.55% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.45¢
96.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME105.39k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY82.24k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.931 · entropy 0.216 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.5%NO 96.5%YES p̂3.5%H = 0.216 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES28.99×(3¢)NO1.04×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.216 bits (22% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.45% · worst -3.95% · typical |Δ| 0.35%BEARISH SESSION -2.50%BEST+2.45%24hWORST-3.95%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.49% · Σ -3.95%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.50%+0.00%-4.95%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-3.95% · 23h-3.95% · 23h-3.95%23h▼ WORST2.45% · 24h2.45% · 24h2.45%24h★ BESTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH8% up · 17% down · 75% flat
2 up bars · 4 down · best 2.45% · worst -3.95% · typical |Δ| 0.350%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.58%)FINAL-2.58%MAX DD-4.91%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9742 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9509, 1.0000]1.00000.9509break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.91% · moderate0%-4.91%▼ TROUGH -4.91%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.91%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.91%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9742 (-2.58%) · max DD -4.91% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −8 (0% positive) · μ=-12.83 · σ=16.93UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -11.36 (+0.09σ vs μ)38.2119.100.00-19.10-38.21μ = -12.83-20.72-20.72-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-20.72-20.720.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-11.36-11.36v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -11.355 · range [-38.21, 0.00] · μ -12.834 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=30.3988 · σ=52.9780 · range [0.0000, 192.8599] · R²=0.075▲ RISING +447.46%σ EXTREME 174.28%LAST 192.8599192.8599144.645096.430048.21500.0000μ = 30.3988max 192.8599min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 192.86% · range [0.00%, 192.86%] · μ 30.40% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −9 (0% positive) · μ=-0.174 · σ=0.249MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.505 (-1.33σ vs μ)0.7160.3580.000-0.358-0.716μ = -0.174-0.127-0.127-0.433-0.433-0.533-0.533-0.433-0.433-0.716-0.716-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.505-0.505v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.505 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
164.9413
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.9409
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3116
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0772
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3536
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7237
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5958
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0230
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.3946
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0166
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.271 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.03e-4 · top T=2.00h (18.5%) · top-3 cover 49.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.3e-41.7e-41.1e-45.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.09e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.09e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.04e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.76e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.76e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.41e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.41e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.98e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.98e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.38e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.38e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.19e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.19e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.04e-4 · 16.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.04e-4 · 16.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.18e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.51e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.51e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.28e-4 · 18.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.28e-4 · 18.5% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 18.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.231e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (362 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.203pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.50ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0333 · n = 362✓ n = 362
μ per bar
-0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.203pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.99pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.50pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0333
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.34pp · ES₉₅ 0.42pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.85pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 362
VaR 95%
0.34pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.42pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
88.9pp
peak 4.5¢ → trough 0.5¢
Median step
0.85pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
28.986
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2799
$100 wins $2799
FractionalUK
27.99 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2798.55
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.216 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.216 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.86 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.05 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
86819549030950284445884976980431304165637527136565877826217368298635490191009
NO token ID
101069518873417512201409993205632427755268920222706270126975358885899858083751
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 21:37:17 UTC
Snapshot age
15ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 21:37:17 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
714397117192d5eb5217a183946ccdee5bcce2ed9308e0dfda0149f94c7238bc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain90.8¢HL PREDNetherlands77.9¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?79¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?66¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,883HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,704.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.89

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.019500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
9743.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.987
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.789
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-total-5pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04371712418.91bp0.0700006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.12450653849.19bp0.77000029FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.579657287260.22bp0.98000037FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0018289062.76bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0018289062.76bp0.0010004PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0018289062.76bp0.0010004PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 362 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
16388.48%
σ per bar = 0.123776
Mean return (annualised)
-129031.83%
μ per bar = -0.000736
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.87
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
88.89%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.01 over 261 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-total-5pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON