POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - TOTAL CORNERS

Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners

YES · live
32.0¢
NO · live
68.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-8pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1389.23%
max drawdown
44.35%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
15.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.24%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.89%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
26.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.14
upside/downside
roll spread
38.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
260
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-8pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
32.0¢
NO · live
68.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5754 · σ=0.0123 · range [0.5350, 0.5950] · R²=0.230▼ FALLING -2.61%σ NORMAL 2.14%LAST 0.56000.59500.58000.56500.55000.5350μ = 0.5754max 0.5950min 0.5350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 56.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 32.0%NO 68.0%NO68.0%68.00¢ · odds 1/1.47
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.904 / 1.00 bits (90%) · high uncertainty
YES
32.0%32.0¢3.13×▬ +0.00pp
NO
68.0%68.0¢1.47×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,650 · μ=68.8 · σ=80.5 · CV=1.17BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=18075150225300μ = 6930050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1650bp moved · peak 300bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
32.00¢ (32.00%)
▼NO mid
68.00¢ (68.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$35.0k
≋liquidity $
$238.2
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5754 · σ=0.0123 · range [0.5350, 0.5950] · R²=0.230▼ FALLING -2.61%σ NORMAL 2.14%LAST 0.56000.59500.58000.56500.55000.5350μ = 0.5754max 0.5950min 0.5350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 56.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4250 · σ=0.0130 · range [0.4050, 0.4650] · R²=0.258▲ RISING +5.88%σ NORMAL 3.06%LAST 0.45000.46500.45000.43500.42000.4050μ = 0.4250max 0.4650min 0.4050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 45.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0103 · skew=-0.39 (symmetric) · kurt=0.65 (mesokurtic)975201-2.72ppbin -2.72pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -2.72pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-2.17pp2-1.62ppbin -1.62pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -1.62pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak1-1.07ppbin -1.07pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -1.07pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak4-0.52ppbin -0.52pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -0.52pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak90.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak20.58ppbin 0.58pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.58pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak41.13ppbin 1.13pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 1.13pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak1.68pp12.23ppbin 2.23pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 2.23pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.38 · kurt=1.64 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.32)
μ MEAN57.54¢95% CI: [57.06¢, 58.02¢]
σ STD DEV1.23ppσ² = 1.519 · CV = 2.14%
med MEDIAN57.50¢Q₁ 57.00¢ · Q₃ 58.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 6.00pp · IQR 1.50pp (1.349σ→1.66pp)
min 53.50¢Q₁ 57.00¢med 57.50¢Q₃ 58.50¢max 59.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.146left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.318leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.11
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.87
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.175within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.299lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.600persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.624significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.600
H = 0.600PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.175k=2-0.299k=3+0.115k=4-0.040k=5-0.0980+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.62)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.37high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.62)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2497493
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-8pt5
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Total Corners
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (68¢)
PRIMARY · YES32.00¢implied prob 32.00% · decimal odds 3.13×
COUNTER · NO68.00¢implied prob 68.00% · decimal odds 1.47×
32.00¢
68.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME35.01k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY238 USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (68¢)|primary − counter| = 0.360 · entropy 0.904 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 32.0%NO 68.0%YES p̂32.0%H = 0.904 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.13×(32¢)NO1.47×(68¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
K* full
-0.00%
½K half
-0.00%
¼K quarter
-0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.904 bits (90% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.69%BEARISH SESSION -1.50%BEST+2.50%24hWORST-3.00%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.69%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.56% · Σ -4.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.50%+2.00%-4.00%1.00% · 1h1.00% · 1h1.00%1h-1.00% · 2h-1.00% · 2h-1.00%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h1.00% · 9h1.00% · 9h1.00%9h1.00% · 10h1.00% · 10h1.00%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h-1.50% · 16h-1.50% · 16h-1.50%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h1.00% · 21h1.00% · 21h1.00%21h-1.50% · 22h-1.50% · 22h-1.50%22h-3.00% · 23h-3.00% · 23h-3.00%23h▼ WORST2.50% · 24h2.50% · 24h2.50%24h★ BESTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 33% down · 38% flat
7 up bars · 8 down · best 2.50% · worst -3.00% · typical |Δ| 0.688%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.62%)FINAL-1.62%MAX DD-5.90%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.00%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9838 · peak 1.0200 · range [0.9598, 1.0200]1.02000.9598break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0200UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.90% · significant0%-5.90%▼ TROUGH -5.90%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.90%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 3-10 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.90%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9838 (-1.62%) · max DD -5.90% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −9 (37% positive) · μ=-7.86 · σ=37.57MIXED EDGELAST -8.15 (-0.01σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = -7.8611.7411.74-30.21-30.210.000.0030.2130.2151.5251.5233.9533.9522.8322.8338.2138.2122.8322.83-13.34-13.34-85.44-85.44-66.72-66.72-45.67-45.67-45.67-45.67-33.95-33.950.000.000.000.00-31.55-31.55-8.15-8.15v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.146 · range [-85.44, 51.52] · μ -7.863 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=69.6080 · σ=33.9916 · range [29.5973, 179.2205] · R²=0.453▲ RISING +188.13%σ EXTREME 48.83%LAST 179.2205179.2205141.8147104.408967.003129.5973μ = 69.6080max 179.2205min 29.5973dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 179.22% · range [29.60%, 179.22%] · μ 69.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −9 (47% positive) · μ=-0.061 · σ=0.230CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.279 (-0.95σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.061-0.418-0.418-0.146-0.146-0.500-0.500-0.208-0.2080.1670.167-0.079-0.0790.0950.0950.0330.0330.1670.167-0.199-0.1990.1670.167-0.126-0.1260.0240.0240.1670.1670.1840.1840.0000.000-0.429-0.4290.2270.227-0.279-0.279v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.279 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.1579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0460
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1207
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5340
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0301
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2833
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2872
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7740
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4002
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0770
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6262
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.505 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.09e-4 · top T=3.00h (24.5%) · top-3 cover 58.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.2e-42.4e-41.6e-48.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.98e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.98e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.05e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.05e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.58e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.58e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.51e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.51e-4 · 19.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.98e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.98e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.22e-4 · 24.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.22e-4 · 24.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.77e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.77e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.66e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.66e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.06e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.06e-5 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.37e-6 · 0.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 24.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.312e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (260 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 1.050pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.57ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2176 · n = 260✓ n = 260
μ per bar
-0.098pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.050pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
5.14pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
2.57pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2176
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
32.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.83pp · ES₉₅ 2.26pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.098pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 4.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 260
VaR 95%
1.83pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.26pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
44.3pp
peak 57.5¢ → trough 32.0¢
Median step
4.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
32.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.125
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+213
$100 wins $213
FractionalUK
2.12 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$212.50
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 32.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.904 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.904 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.56 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
31530059115902749075661324047708839710844760137411626833383256470693817819766
NO token ID
111717095080107439071061600982060342293050198138021064811138323512720493664221
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 21:39:27 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 21:39:27 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5662c3026d59f8dec2a2705fbbf94dff0abe9b30a80e32ab42a447f4c28eedd8 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain90.8¢HL PREDNetherlands79.8¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?81¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?65¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,940HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,709.9HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.98

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Total Corners

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.490000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2857.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.732
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.402
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-8pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6318152894.18bp0.9300006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.8620967593.79bp0.9900009PARTIAL
BUY$100.00K0.8620967593.79bp0.9900009PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3112233648.52bp0.0200006PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.3112233648.52bp0.0200006PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.3112233648.52bp0.0200006PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 260 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3291.44%
σ per bar = 0.024860
Mean return (annualised)
-396659.09%
μ per bar = -0.002263
Sharpe (rf=0)
-120.51
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
44.35%
peak 0.57 → trough 0.32 over 250 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-corners-total-8pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON