POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · FRANCE VS. IRAQ

Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?

YES · live
3.1¢
NO · live
96.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-irq · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.08%
realized vol (ann.)
4.68%
max drawdown
1.56%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.56%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
3.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
3.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.08%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -3.08%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-irq/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.1¢
NO · live
96.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0316 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0305, 0.0325] · R²=0.054▼ FALLING -3.08%σ NORMAL 1.74%LAST 0.03150.03250.03200.03150.03100.0305μ = 0.0316max 0.0325min 0.0305dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.1%NO 96.9%NO96.9%96.85¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.202 / 1.00 bits (20%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.1%3.1¢31.75×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.9%96.9¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=50 · μ=2.1 · σ=4.1 · CV=1.99BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110481115μ = 21550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 50bp moved · peak 15bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.5s
▲YES mid
3.15¢ (3.15%)
▼NO mid
96.85¢ (96.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$26.2k
≋liquidity $
$322.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0316 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0305, 0.0325] · R²=0.054▼ FALLING -3.08%σ NORMAL 1.74%LAST 0.03150.03250.03200.03150.03100.0305μ = 0.0316max 0.0325min 0.0305dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9684 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.9675, 0.9695] · R²=0.054▲ RISING +0.10%σ LOW 0.06%LAST 0.96850.96950.96900.96850.96800.9675μ = 0.9684max 0.9695min 0.9675dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0004 · skew=0.28 (symmetric) · kurt=3.20 (leptokurtic (fat tails))18149502-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=2 · 11.1% peakbin -0.09pp · n=2 · 11.1% peak-0.06pp2-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=2 · 11.1% peakbin -0.04pp · n=2 · 11.1% peak-0.01pp180.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=18 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=18 · 100.0% peak0.04pp10.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin 0.06pp · n=1 · 5.6% peak0.09pp0.11pp10.14ppbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.83 · kurt=4.33 · near 9 / mid 13 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.83 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.54)
μ MEAN3.16¢95% CI: [3.14¢, 3.19¢]
σ STD DEV0.06ppσ² = 30.250×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.74%
med MEDIAN3.15¢Q₁ 3.15¢ · Q₃ 3.20¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.20pp · IQR 0.05pp (1.349σ→0.07pp)
min 3.05¢Q₁ 3.15¢med 3.15¢Q₃ 3.20¢max 3.25¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.539left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.014mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.48
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.64
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.059within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.009lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.070strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.142fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.070
H = 1.070STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.059k=2-0.009k=3-0.404k=4+0.200k=5-0.0980+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.14)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.14)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897206
SLUGfifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-irq
CATEGORYFrance vs. Iraq
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.15¢implied prob 3.15% · decimal odds 31.75×
COUNTER · NO96.85¢implied prob 96.85% · decimal odds 1.03×
3.15¢
96.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.20k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY322.65k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.937 · entropy 0.202 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.1%NO 96.9%YES p̂3.1%H = 0.202 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES31.75×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.202 bits (20% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-22 21:00 UTC
4days
10hrs
09min
4.42 days·θ = 0.269 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.9%)
current: $0.0315 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.06% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.269 pp/day
now4.42d left
0.269 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.32d left
0.311 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.21d left
0.381 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.11d left
0.539 pp/day×2.00
−90%10.62h left
0.852 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.15% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.02%MILD BEARISH -0.10%BEST+0.15%14hWORST-0.10%3hTYPICAL |Δ|0.02%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.10%+0.00%-0.20%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h▼ WORST0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.10% · 11h-0.10% · 11h-0.10%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.15% · 14h0.15% · 14h0.15%14h★ BEST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 1BREADTH8% up · 17% down · 75% flat
2 up bars · 4 down · best 0.15% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.021%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.10%)FINAL-0.10%MAX DD-0.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9990 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9980, 1.0000]1.00000.9980break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.20% · shallow0%-0.20%▼ TROUGH -0.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.20%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9990 (-0.10%) · max DD -0.20% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −11 (32% positive) · μ=-13.04 · σ=30.10UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.21 (-0.84σ vs μ)55.9327.970.00-27.97-55.93μ = -13.04-15.87-15.87-30.21-30.21-30.21-30.210.000.000.000.00-30.21-30.21-55.93-55.93-38.21-38.219.749.749.749.749.749.7438.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-55.93, 38.21] · μ -13.044 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=4.3156 · σ=1.9759 · range [1.9105, 7.4973] · R²=0.111▼ FALLING -58.48%σ EXTREME 45.79%LAST 1.91057.49736.10064.70393.30721.9105μ = 4.3156max 7.4973min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1.91% · range [1.91%, 7.50%] · μ 4.32% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.206 · σ=0.150MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.233 (-0.18σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.206-0.075-0.075-0.271-0.271-0.208-0.208-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.271-0.271-0.357-0.357-0.233-0.2330.0240.024-0.015-0.015-0.041-0.041-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
35.5175
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5265
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2574
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5413
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1084
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4142
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1573
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1613
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4243
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9982
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.001 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.34e-7 · top T=2.00h (23.7%) · top-3 cover 59.7%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)6.7e-75.0e-73.3e-71.7e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.23e-7 · 4.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.23e-7 · 4.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.17e-8 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.17e-8 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.92e-7 · 17.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.92e-7 · 17.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 2.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.08e-7 · 10.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.08e-7 · 10.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 18.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.03e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.03e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.99e-8 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.99e-8 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.00e-7 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.00e-7 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.67e-7 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.67e-7 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 23.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 23.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.813e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 4.4 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0305 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move4d
0.04pp
σ × √106.1523786111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0305
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
6.2pp
peak 3.3¢ → trough 3.0¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
31.746
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3075
$100 wins $3075
FractionalUK
30.75 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3074.60
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.202 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.202 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.99 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.05 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
76510222428165877597575721449543571541796482738486080354541430902498097062984
NO token ID
102168772774052663324394109454833305484841637662205024564218903307039059282120
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 10:50:47 UTC
Snapshot age
3.5s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 10:50:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a8b726c1f1b3f5e316c763d86ab3a5c8c9579e3a7cc2f679e8b32b2d35a71a76 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.6¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,014HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.86HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,742.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in France vs. Iraq

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.031500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
317.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.469
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.524
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-irq/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0347051017.34bp0.0380007FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.08031615497.07bp0.14000036FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.23798865551.87bp0.90000073FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0199293673.42bp0.01100017FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0091197105.15bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0091197105.15bp0.00100026PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
162.25%
σ per bar = 0.001226
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.15%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 2131 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-irq/risk · same metrics, JSON