POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPAIN VS. CABO VERDE - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

YES · live
44.5¢
NO · live
55.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-exact-score-any-other · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
120.27%
max drawdown
1.15%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.94%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.79%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.15%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
365
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-exact-score-any-other/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH38ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
44.5¢
NO · live
55.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.4184 · σ=0.0353 · range [0.3400, 0.4700] · R²=0.659▲ RISING +30.88%σ HIGH 8.43%LAST 0.44500.47000.43750.40500.37250.3400μ = 0.4184max 0.4700min 0.3400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 44.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 44.5%NO 55.5%NO55.5%55.50¢ · odds 1/1.80
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.991 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
44.5%44.5¢2.25×▬ +0.00pp
NO
55.5%55.5¢1.80×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,350 · μ=97.9 · σ=134.7 · CV=1.38BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140125250375500μ = 9850050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2350bp moved · peak 500bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
38ms
▲YES mid
44.50¢ (44.50%)
▼NO mid
55.50¢ (55.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.3k
≋liquidity $
$26.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4184 · σ=0.0353 · range [0.3400, 0.4700] · R²=0.659▲ RISING +30.88%σ HIGH 8.43%LAST 0.44500.47000.43750.40500.37250.3400μ = 0.4184max 0.4700min 0.3400dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 44.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5816 · σ=0.0353 · range [0.5300, 0.6600] · R²=0.659▼ FALLING -15.91%σ HIGH 6.06%LAST 0.55500.66000.62750.59500.56250.5300μ = 0.5816max 0.6600min 0.5300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 55.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0044 · σ=0.0149 · skew=-1.01 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.36 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-4.55ppbin -4.55pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -4.55pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-3.65pp-2.75pp-1.85pp2-0.95ppbin -0.95pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.95pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak10-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin -0.05pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak50.85ppbin 0.85pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin 0.85pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak41.75ppbin 1.75pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin 1.75pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak12.65ppbin 2.65pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 2.65pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak13.55ppbin 3.55pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 3.55pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.04 · kurt=4.15 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN41.84¢95% CI: [40.46¢, 43.22¢]
σ STD DEV3.53ppσ² = 12.432 · CV = 8.43%
med MEDIAN41.50¢Q₁ 39.00¢ · Q₃ 45.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 13.00pp · IQR 6.00pp (1.349σ→4.76pp)
min 34.00¢Q₁ 39.00¢med 41.50¢Q₃ 45.00¢max 47.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.219approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.901mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.69
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.139within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.049lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.985strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.664significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.985
H = 0.985STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.139k=2-0.049k=3-0.174k=4-0.178k=5-0.2900+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322506
SLUGfifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-exact-score-any-other
CATEGORYSpain vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (56¢)
PRIMARY · YES44.50¢implied prob 44.50% · decimal odds 2.25×
COUNTER · NO55.50¢implied prob 55.50% · decimal odds 1.80×
44.50¢
55.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME31.33k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY25.98k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (56¢)|primary − counter| = 0.110 · entropy 0.991 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 44.5%NO 55.5%YES p̂44.5%H = 0.991 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.25×(45¢)NO1.80×(56¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.991 bits (99% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
0days
08hrs
35min
8.6 hours·θ = 17.273 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 44.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 55.5%)
current: $0.4450 · expected return per side: $0.55 on YES hit · $0.45 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.3hRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.53% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 17.273 pp/day
now8.60h left
17.273 pp/day×1.00
−25%6.45h left
19.945 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.30h left
24.428 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.15h left
34.546 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.86h left
54.622 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.00% · worst -5.00% · typical |Δ| 0.98%MILD BULLISH +10.50%BEST+4.00%12hWORST-5.00%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.98%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+10.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.79% · Σ +5.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.94% · Σ +7.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.31% · Σ -2.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +10.50%+13.00%0.00%2.00% · 1h2.00% · 1h2.00%1h2.50% · 2h2.50% · 2h2.50%2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h4.00% · 12h4.00% · 12h4.00%12h★ BEST0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h2.00% · 14h2.00% · 14h2.00%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-5.00% · 17h-5.00% · 17h-5.00%17h▼ WORST-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h2.00% · 19h2.00% · 19h2.00%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h1.50% · 21h1.50% · 21h1.50%21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h-1.00% · 23h-1.00% · 23h-1.00%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+7.50%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 13% down · 42% flat
11 up bars · 3 down · best 4.00% · worst -5.00% · typical |Δ| 0.979%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +10.71%FINAL+10.71%MAX DD-5.47%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+13.70%UNDERWATER8/25 (32%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1071 · peak 1.1370 · range [1.0000, 1.1370]1.13701.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1370UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.47% · significant0%-5.47%▼ TROUGH -5.47%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.47%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.47%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER32% of session · 8/25 bars
final equity 1.1071 (10.71%) · max DD -5.47% · time-under-water 8/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=38.58 · σ=37.48PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 42.72 (+0.11σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = 38.5869.3069.3056.2656.2685.4485.4460.4260.4260.4260.4276.4276.4261.7161.7154.9154.9168.1668.1668.1668.1668.1668.165.215.21-23.40-23.40-9.13-9.13-23.40-23.40-12.56-12.56-9.34-9.3433.6733.6742.7242.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 42.720 · range [-23.40, 85.44] · μ 38.585 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=141.1109 · σ=80.2850 · range [24.1661, 280.2642] · R²=0.394▼ FALLING -2.67%σ EXTREME 56.89%LAST 102.5280280.2642216.2396152.215188.190624.1661μ = 141.1109max 280.2642min 24.1661dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 102.53% · range [24.17%, 280.26%] · μ 141.11% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-0.026 · σ=0.229CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.083 (-0.25σ vs μ)0.4820.2410.000-0.241-0.482μ = -0.0260.4820.4820.1310.1310.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.167-0.233-0.2330.1520.152-0.117-0.117-0.249-0.249-0.431-0.431-0.340-0.340-0.008-0.0080.0150.0150.0020.002-0.032-0.0320.0070.0070.0940.094-0.386-0.386-0.083-0.083v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.083 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
34.7332
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.2353
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3882
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3076
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1772
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.4771
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1396
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7285
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0110
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.4686
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6393
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.143 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.60e-4 · top T=6.00h (19.9%) · top-3 cover 52.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.2e-44.7e-43.1e-41.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.01e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.01e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.74e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.74e-4 · 15.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.80e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.80e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.22e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.22e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.28e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.28e-4 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.37e-4 · 17.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.37e-4 · 17.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.16e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.63e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.63e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.26e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.26e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.07e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.07e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-4 · 7.5% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 19.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.125e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (365 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.4 d · σ/bar 0.091pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.27ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2470 · n = 365✓ n = 365
μ per bar
+0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.091pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.45pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.27pp
σ × √8.598099166666668
Terminal variancebinary
0.2470
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
44.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.18pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 365
VaR 95%
0.15pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.18pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.1pp
peak 43.5¢ → trough 43.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
44.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.247
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+125
$100 wins $125
FractionalUK
1.25 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$124.72
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 44.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.991 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.991 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.17 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.85 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
81929631700392761595907760763854686955468838651189398063651236605477213029830
NO token ID
21930361517708681522420412788829405827004872510809269821742990365352960592887
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 07:24:06 UTC
Snapshot age
38ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 07:24:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0112dd75bcac2229cb324f9fb61836df8b4e1bbd7e16a5e11f55f381e6b6bd65 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil93.4¢HL PREDSpain92.0¢HL PREDNorway78.9¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?86¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?93¢POLYMARKETWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,892HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,721.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$65.86

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Spain vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.445000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
224.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.574
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.358
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-exact-score-any-other/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.450000112.36bp0.4500001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.477075720.79bp0.4900005FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6435314461.37bp0.99000045PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.440000112.36bp0.4400001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3665631762.63bp0.01000018PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.3665631762.63bp0.01000018PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 365 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
274.28%
σ per bar = 0.002071
Mean return (annualised)
10946.42%
μ per bar = 0.000062
Sharpe (rf=0)
39.91
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.15%
peak 0.43 → trough 0.43 over 9 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-exact-score-any-other/risk · same metrics, JSON