POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CZECHIA VS. SOUTH AFRICA - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

YES · live
10.5¢
NO · live
89.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-any-other · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
346
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-any-other/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH142ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
10.5¢
NO · live
89.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0964 · σ=0.0084 · range [0.0800, 0.1050] · R²=0.332▲ RISING +5.00%σ HIGH 8.67%LAST 0.10500.10500.09880.09250.08620.0800μ = 0.0964max 0.1050min 0.0800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 10.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 10.5%NO 89.5%NO89.5%89.50¢ · odds 1/1.12
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.485 / 1.00 bits (48%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
10.5%10.5¢9.52×▬ +0.00pp
NO
89.5%89.5¢1.12×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,150 · μ=47.9 · σ=54.1 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11050100150200μ = 4820050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1150bp moved · peak 200bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
142ms
▲YES mid
10.50¢ (10.50%)
▼NO mid
89.50¢ (89.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$26.4k
≋liquidity $
$46.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0964 · σ=0.0084 · range [0.0800, 0.1050] · R²=0.332▲ RISING +5.00%σ HIGH 8.67%LAST 0.10500.10500.09880.09250.08620.0800μ = 0.0964max 0.1050min 0.0800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 10.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9036 · σ=0.0084 · range [0.8950, 0.9200] · R²=0.332▼ FALLING -0.56%σ LOW 0.92%LAST 0.89500.92000.91380.90750.90120.8950μ = 0.9036max 0.9200min 0.8950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 89.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0068 · skew=0.18 (symmetric) · kurt=0.65 (mesokurtic)1085301-1.32ppbin -1.32pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.32pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak3-0.98ppbin -0.98pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -0.98pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak2-0.63ppbin -0.63pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.63pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak-0.28pp100.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak60.42ppbin 0.42pp · n=6 · 60.0% peakbin 0.42pp · n=6 · 60.0% peak0.77pp11.12ppbin 1.12pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.12pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1.47pp11.82ppbin 1.82pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.82pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.27 · kurt=1.06 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.46)
μ MEAN9.64¢95% CI: [9.31¢, 9.97¢]
σ STD DEV0.84ppσ² = 0.698 · CV = 8.67%
med MEDIAN9.50¢Q₁ 9.00¢ · Q₃ 10.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.50pp · IQR 1.50pp (1.349σ→1.13pp)
min 8.00¢Q₁ 9.00¢med 9.50¢Q₃ 10.50¢max 10.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.273approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.457platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.75
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.99
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.57 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.574negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.265lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.838strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.378significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.838
H = 0.838STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.574k=2+0.265k=3-0.146k=4+0.222k=5-0.1870+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.38)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.57 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.38)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322760
SLUGfifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-any-other
CATEGORYCzechia vs. South Africa - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (90¢)
PRIMARY · YES10.50¢implied prob 10.50% · decimal odds 9.52×
COUNTER · NO89.50¢implied prob 89.50% · decimal odds 1.12×
10.50¢
89.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.40k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY46.51k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (90¢)|primary − counter| = 0.790 · entropy 0.485 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 10.5%NO 89.5%YES p̂10.5%H = 0.485 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES9.52×(11¢)NO1.12×(90¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
K* full
-0.00%
½K half
-0.00%
¼K quarter
-0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.485 bits (48% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 16:00 UTC
0days
03hrs
44min
3.7 hours·θ = 4.094 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 10.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 89.5%)
current: $0.1050 · expected return per side: $0.90 on YES hit · $0.10 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.84% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.094 pp/day
now3.74h left
4.094 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.81h left
4.727 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.87h left
5.790 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.94h left
8.188 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.37h left
12.946 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.48%MILD BULLISH +0.50%BEST+2.00%14hWORST-1.50%3hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.50%+0.50%-2.00%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h-1.50% · 3h-1.50% · 3h-1.50%3h▼ WORST0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-1.00% · 9h-1.00% · 9h-1.00%9h0.50% · 10h0.50% · 10h0.50%10h0.50% · 11h0.50% · 11h0.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h2.00% · 14h2.00% · 14h2.00%14h★ BEST-1.00% · 15h-1.00% · 15h-1.00%15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 1BREADTH33% up · 25% down · 42% flat
8 up bars · 6 down · best 2.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.479%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.44%FINAL+0.44%MAX DD-2.49%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.50%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0044 · peak 1.0050 · range [0.9800, 1.0050]1.00500.9800break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0050UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.49% · moderate0%-2.49%▼ TROUGH -2.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.49%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.49%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 1.0044 (0.44%) · max DD -2.49% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −6 (53% positive) · μ=7.31 · σ=23.72MIXED EDGELAST 0.00 (-0.31σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = 7.31-17.82-17.82-9.06-9.06-33.95-33.95-30.21-30.21-13.34-13.3413.3413.3413.3413.34-10.60-10.6020.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.7213.8613.8631.7331.730.000.0060.4260.4238.2138.210.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-33.95, 60.42] · μ 7.306 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=64.3700 · σ=35.3746 · range [0.0000, 105.6835] · R²=0.172▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 54.96%LAST 0.0000105.683579.262652.841726.42090.0000μ = 64.3700max 105.6835min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 105.68%] · μ 64.37% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −16 (5% positive) · μ=-0.313 · σ=0.333MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+0.94σ vs μ)0.7750.3870.000-0.387-0.775μ = -0.313-0.638-0.638-0.507-0.507-0.132-0.132-0.208-0.208-0.467-0.467-0.126-0.126-0.004-0.004-0.172-0.172-0.422-0.422-0.716-0.716-0.775-0.775-0.775-0.775-0.728-0.728-0.489-0.489-0.167-0.1670.4170.417-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.9449
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2294
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
14.2480
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0142
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1379
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2384
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2191
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2228
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5253
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0360
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8505
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0642
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.437 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.67e-5 · top T=2.00h (47.0%) · top-3 cover 78.0%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.8e-42.8e-41.9e-49.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.18e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.18e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.71e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.71e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.26e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.26e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.75e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.75e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.95e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.95e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.17e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.15e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.15e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.32e-4 · 16.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.32e-4 · 16.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.96e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.96e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-4 · 47.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-4 · 47.0% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 47.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.000e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (346 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.000pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.00ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0940 · n = 346✓ n = 346
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.000pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.00pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.00pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0940
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
10.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.00pp · ES₉₅ 0.00pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 346
VaR 95%
0.00pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.00pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 10.5¢ → trough 10.5¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
10.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
9.524
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+852
$100 wins $852
FractionalUK
8.52 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$852.38
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 10.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.485 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.485 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.25 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.16 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
23345143445170305826100839329884911770857219028811887906024825555535289750747
NO token ID
78242760629586848275204066628137324707364629096585601118216130912869831634212
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:15:24 UTC
Snapshot age
142ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:15:24 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
bc09211f9e2dbc18b3efe8b9e483dcf720aed352eb7e7b61108bd411c2ed559e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,978HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.88HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,744.8

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Czechia vs. South Africa - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.105000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
952.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.619
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.347
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-any-other/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.110000476.19bp0.1100001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.22092711040.70bp0.70000033FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.70004156670.59bp0.97000053FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0862581784.96bp0.0800003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0385356329.98bp0.0100009PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0385356329.98bp0.0100009PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 346 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
0.00%
σ per bar = 0.000000
Mean return (annualised)
0.00%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.10 → trough 0.10 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-any-other/risk · same metrics, JSON