POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CANADA VS. QATAR - MORE MARKETS

Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5

YES · live
7.1¢
NO · live
92.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-total-5pt5 · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
12.55%
max drawdown
6.54%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.72%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.18%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.33
upside/downside
roll spread
0.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1557
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-total-5pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.1¢
NO · live
92.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0732 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.0655, 0.0765] · R²=0.361▲ RISING +9.16%σ NORMAL 4.34%LAST 0.07150.07650.07370.07100.06830.0655μ = 0.0732max 0.0765min 0.0655dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 7.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 7.1%NO 92.8%NO92.8%92.85¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.371 / 1.00 bits (37%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
7.1%7.1¢13.99×▬ +0.00pp
NO
92.8%92.8¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=180 · μ=7.5 · σ=10.5 · CV=1.40BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=11011223445μ = 84550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 180bp moved · peak 45bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16.2s
▲YES mid
7.15¢ (7.15%)
▼NO mid
92.85¢ (92.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$41.1k
≋liquidity $
$233.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0732 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.0655, 0.0765] · R²=0.361▲ RISING +9.16%σ NORMAL 4.34%LAST 0.07150.07650.07370.07100.06830.0655μ = 0.0732max 0.0765min 0.0655dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9268 · σ=0.0032 · range [0.9235, 0.9345] · R²=0.361▼ FALLING -0.64%σ LOW 0.34%LAST 0.92850.93450.93170.92900.92630.9235μ = 0.9268max 0.9345min 0.9235dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.36μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0012 · skew=1.07 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.38 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-0.22ppbin -0.22pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.22pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak1-0.15ppbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak4-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -0.08pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak9-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak40.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 0.06pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak30.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 0.13pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak10.20ppbin 0.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak0.27pp0.34pp10.41ppbin 0.41pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.41pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.22 · kurt=3.94 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.12)
μ MEAN7.32¢95% CI: [7.20¢, 7.45¢]
σ STD DEV0.32ppσ² = 0.101 · CV = 4.34%
med MEDIAN7.40¢Q₁ 7.20¢ · Q₃ 7.55¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.10pp · IQR 0.35pp (1.349σ→0.43pp)
min 6.55¢Q₁ 7.20¢med 7.40¢Q₃ 7.55¢max 7.65¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.124left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.017mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.23
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.46
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.375within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.013lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.106strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.607significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.106
H = 1.106STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.375k=2+0.013k=3+0.122k=4+0.027k=5+0.0150+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.61)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.61)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2326563
SLUGfifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-total-5pt5
CATEGORYCanada vs. Qatar - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (93¢)
PRIMARY · YES7.15¢implied prob 7.15% · decimal odds 13.99×
COUNTER · NO92.85¢implied prob 92.85% · decimal odds 1.08×
7.15¢
92.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME41.12k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY233.69k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (93¢)|primary − counter| = 0.857 · entropy 0.371 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 7.1%NO 92.8%YES p̂7.1%H = 0.371 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES13.99×(7¢)NO1.08×(93¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.371 bits (37% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 22:00 UTC
0days
09hrs
46min
9.8 hours·θ = 1.557 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 7.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 92.8%)
current: $0.0715 · expected return per side: $0.93 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.9hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.32% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.557 pp/day
now9.78h left
1.557 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.33h left
1.798 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.89h left
2.202 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.44h left
3.115 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.98h left
4.925 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.08%MILD BULLISH +0.60%BEST+0.45%4hWORST-0.25%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.85%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.60%+1.10%0.00%0.15% · 1h0.15% · 1h0.15%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.45% · 4h0.45% · 4h0.45%4h★ BEST0.20% · 5h0.20% · 5h0.20%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.05% · 20h0.05% · 20h0.05%20h-0.05% · 21h-0.05% · 21h-0.05%21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h▼ WORST-0.15% · 23h-0.15% · 23h-0.15%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.85%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 25% down · 38% flat
9 up bars · 6 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.25% · typical |Δ| 0.075%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.60%FINAL+0.60%MAX DD-0.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.10%UNDERWATER11/25 (44%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0060 · peak 1.0110 · range [1.0000, 1.0110]1.01101.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0110UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.50% · shallow0%-0.50%▼ TROUGH -0.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.50%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.05%bar 9-11 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER44% of session · 11/25 bars
final equity 1.0060 (0.60%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 11/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −4 (74% positive) · μ=25.30 · σ=47.81PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -64.76 (-1.88σ vs μ)104.6452.320.00-52.32-104.64μ = 25.3077.3177.3160.4260.4248.6648.6648.6648.6626.5826.5815.8715.8738.2138.2138.2138.2160.4260.4279.3379.33104.64104.6444.6244.6220.7220.720.000.0015.8715.87-15.87-15.87-53.49-53.49-64.76-64.76-64.76-64.76v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -64.758 · range [-64.76, 104.64] · μ 25.296 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=8.3453 · σ=5.1592 · range [3.5228, 18.0033] · R²=0.278▼ FALLING -36.80%σ EXTREME 61.82%LAST 10.145418.003314.383210.76317.14293.5228μ = 8.3453max 18.0033min 3.5228dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.15% · range [3.52%, 18.00%] · μ 8.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +12 / −6 (63% positive) · μ=0.039 · σ=0.246CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.160 (+0.49σ vs μ)0.6610.3300.000-0.330-0.661μ = 0.039-0.148-0.1480.0030.0030.0810.0810.3510.3510.0160.0160.0290.0290.4330.4330.2330.2330.1670.167-0.006-0.0060.2500.250-0.227-0.227-0.069-0.0690.0000.000-0.178-0.178-0.661-0.6610.0230.0230.2870.2870.1600.160v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.160 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
33.8000
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.2897
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7749
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0647
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2320
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2179
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4963
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0425
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.8923
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0584
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.576 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.57e-6 · top T=12.00h (23.2%) · top-3 cover 54.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.4e-63.3e-62.2e-61.1e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.77e-6 · 14.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.77e-6 · 14.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.37e-6 · 23.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.37e-6 · 23.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.86e-6 · 15.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.86e-6 · 15.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.84e-6 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.84e-6 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.04e-6 · 16.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.04e-6 · 16.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-7 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-7 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.10e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.10e-6 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.03e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.03e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.67e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.67e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.9% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 23.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.883e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1557 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.4 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0664 · n = 1557✓ n = 1557
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.05pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.03pp
σ × √9.778732777777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0664
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1557
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
6.5pp
peak 7.6¢ → trough 7.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
7.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
13.986
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1299
$100 wins $1299
FractionalUK
12.99 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1298.60
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 7.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.371 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.371 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.81 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.11 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
86245551285165969716663389505397069312699728633149293098797260020771693476488
NO token ID
97543132442045808468395826123034434856606177210100738690103810006122028662180
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:13:00 UTC
Snapshot age
16.2s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:13:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8de598bbf022172aa061fc7a4e425deadaae48f4c3acedbc5c2e8ee51bb7655c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,984HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.95HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,745.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Canada vs. Qatar - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.071500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
139.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.242
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.689
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-total-5pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0795321123.38bp0.0800006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0799531182.23bp0.0800006FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.33015636175.62bp0.98000067FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.068673395.36bp0.0600007FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0179097495.29bp0.00100037PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0179097495.29bp0.00100037PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,557 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
170.08%
σ per bar = 0.001285
Mean return (annualised)
-7613.01%
μ per bar = -0.000043
Sharpe (rf=0)
-44.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.54%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.07 over 1500 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18-total-5pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON