POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CRYPTO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15?
77.5¢
22.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · ethereum-above-1700-on-june-15-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
669.82%
max drawdown
5.16%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.19%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.47%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.16%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.79
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.79
upside/downside
roll spread
7.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
435
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-ethereum-above-1700-on-june-15-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
77.5¢
NO · live
22.5¢
25 ticks · last 76.00¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.769 / 1.00 bits (77%) · moderate uncertainty
YES77.5%77.5¢1.29×▬ +0.00pp
NO22.5%22.5¢4.44×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 9800bp moved · peak 4500bp · n=24 ticks
8ms
77.50¢ (77.50%)
22.50¢ (22.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$28.2k
$17.8k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 76.00¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 24.00¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.86)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.337approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.859platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.836STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
77.50¢
22.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES1.29×(78¢)NO4.44×(23¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.769 bits (77% of max) · moderate uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
0days
09hrs
18min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.7750 · expected return per side: $0.22 on YES hit · $0.78 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 119.621 pp/day
now9.31h left119.621 pp/day×1.00
−25%6.98h left138.127 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.66h left169.170 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.33h left239.242 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.93h left378.276 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
13 up bars · 8 down · best 45.00% · worst -5.00% · typical |Δ| 4.083%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.4517 (45.17%) · max DD -12.45% · time-under-water 17/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 28.222 · range [-64.73, 50.40] · μ -1.177 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 284.53% · range [150.19%, 1737.38%] · μ 714.60% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.328 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
458.3311
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
1.3215
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9317
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-0.5383
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8771
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.9977
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3184
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.6814
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0152
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.8200
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4122
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 19.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.171e-1
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (435 bars · effective 1753103 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 0.4 d · σ/bar 0.506pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.54ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1744 · n = 435✓ n = 435
μ per bar
+0.029pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.506pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.48pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.54pp
σ × √9.310780833333332
Terminal variancebinary
0.1744
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
77.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.80pp · ES₉₅ 1.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.029pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 2.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 435
VaR 95%
0.80pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
5.2pp
peak 77.5¢ → trough 73.5¢
Median step
2.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
77.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.290
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-344
risk $344 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.29 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$29.03
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.769 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.769 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.37 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.15 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
48510725798545201912955671843254099820242383588231150569288393705373151363251- NO token ID
13003010949903110461752101397416339421224003948327353097159483847242785935519- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-15 06:41:21 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 8ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-15 06:41:21 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
e1181891c0a3ead82f1a90a6fa022fd22336cf27a84164d306829e31c9cff422· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDBrazil93.4¢HL PREDSpain91.8¢HL PREDNorway78.8¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?85¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?94¢POLYMARKETWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,774.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,718.35HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$64.72
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Crypto
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.760000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
263.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.224
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.004
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-ethereum-above-1700-on-june-15-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.770000 | 131.58bp | 0.770000 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.812811 | 694.89bp | 0.970000 | 10 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.950527 | 2506.93bp | 0.990000 | 12 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.750000 | 131.58bp | 0.750000 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.520296 | 3154.00bp | 0.240000 | 17 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.151693 | 8004.03bp | 0.010000 | 26 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 435 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
932.12%
σ per bar = 0.007040
Mean return (annualised)
71049.40%
μ per bar = 0.000405
Sharpe (rf=0)
76.22
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.16%
peak 0.78 → trough 0.73 over 33 bars
/api/asset/pm-ethereum-above-1700-on-june-15-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON