POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · PGA TOUR: U.S. OPEN WINNER

Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 U.S. Open?

YES · live
1.3¢
NO · live
98.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · 2026-us-open-winner-cameron-smith-win · fresh · feed 14s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
22.98%
max drawdown
25.81%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.30%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
24.19%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.08
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.08
upside/downside
roll spread
9.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1634
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-2026-us-open-winner-cameron-smith-win/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING14.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.3¢
NO · live
98.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0098 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.0040, 0.0245] · R²=0.006▲ RISING +66.67%σ EXTREME 40.89%LAST 0.01250.02450.01940.01430.00910.0040μ = 0.0098max 0.0245min 0.0040dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.25¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.3%NO 98.8%NO98.8%98.75¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.097 / 1.00 bits (10%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.3%1.3¢80.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.8%98.8¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=480 · μ=20.0 · σ=48.0 · CV=2.40BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14051103154205μ = 2020550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 480bp moved · peak 205bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14.1s
▲YES mid
1.25¢ (1.25%)
▼NO mid
98.75¢ (98.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$30.6k
≋liquidity $
$3.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0098 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.0040, 0.0245] · R²=0.006▲ RISING +66.67%σ EXTREME 40.89%LAST 0.01250.02450.01940.01430.00910.0040μ = 0.0098max 0.0245min 0.0040dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.25¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9902 · σ=0.0040 · range [0.9755, 0.9960] · R²=0.006▼ FALLING -0.50%σ LOW 0.41%LAST 0.98750.99600.99090.98580.98060.9755μ = 0.9902max 0.9960min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.75¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0010 · σ=0.0047 · skew=-2.61 (left-skewed) · kurt=10.84 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410501-1.88ppbin -1.88pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -1.88pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-1.55pp-1.21pp-0.88pp-0.54pp1-0.21ppbin -0.21pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -0.21pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak190.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=19 · 100.0% peak20.46ppbin 0.46pp · n=2 · 10.5% peakbin 0.46pp · n=2 · 10.5% peak0.80pp11.13ppbin 1.13pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 1.13pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.09 · kurt=9.92 · near 5 / mid 15 / far 4 · OLS slope=0.73 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.02σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.55)
μ MEAN0.98¢95% CI: [0.82¢, 1.14¢]
σ STD DEV0.40ppσ² = 0.161 · CV = 40.89%
med MEDIAN1.15¢Q₁ 0.75¢ · Q₃ 1.15¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.05pp · IQR 0.40pp (1.349σ→0.54pp)
min 0.40¢Q₁ 0.75¢med 1.15¢Q₃ 1.15¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.667right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.550leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.42
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.35
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.11
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.469negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.030lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.762strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.370fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.762
H = 0.762STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.469k=2+0.030k=3+0.010k=4-0.064k=5+0.0540+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.37)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.37)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2553450
SLUG2026-us-open-winner-cameron-smith-win
CATEGORYPGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.25¢implied prob 1.25% · decimal odds 80.00×
COUNTER · NO98.75¢implied prob 98.75% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.25¢
98.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME30.59k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY3.72k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.975 · entropy 0.097 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.3%NO 98.8%YES p̂1.3%H = 0.097 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES80.00×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.097 bits (10% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · MEDIUMresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
2days
13hrs
08min
2.55 days·θ = 1.967 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.3%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.8%)
current: $0.0125 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.40% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.967 pp/day
now2.55d left
1.967 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.91d left
2.271 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.27d left
2.782 pp/day×1.41
−75%15.28h left
3.934 pp/day×2.00
−90%6.11h left
6.220 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.30% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.20%MILD BULLISH +0.50%BEST+1.30%13hWORST-2.05%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.20%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.65%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.50%+1.70%-0.35%-0.10% · 1h-0.10% · 1h-0.10%1h0.10% · 2h0.10% · 2h0.10%2h0.40% · 3h0.40% · 3h0.40%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h1.30% · 13h1.30% · 13h1.30%13h★ BEST-2.05% · 14h-2.05% · 14h-2.05%14h▼ WORST0.15% · 15h0.15% · 15h0.15%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.20% · 18h0.20% · 18h0.20%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.10% · 21h0.10% · 21h0.10%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.35% · 23h0.35% · 23h0.35%23h0.05% · 24h0.05% · 24h0.05%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.65%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH33% up · 8% down · 58% flat
8 up bars · 2 down · best 1.30% · worst -2.05% · typical |Δ| 0.200%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.47%FINAL+0.47%MAX DD-2.05%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.71%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0047 · peak 1.0171 · range [0.9962, 1.0171]1.01710.9962break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0171UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.05% · moderate0%-2.05%▼ TROUGH -2.05%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.05%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.05%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 1.0047 (0.47%) · max DD -2.05% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −6 (47% positive) · μ=20.38 · σ=31.68MIXED EDGELAST 57.09 (+1.16σ vs μ)70.9635.480.00-35.48-70.96μ = 20.3835.6335.6348.6848.6838.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0038.2138.21-10.86-10.86-8.65-8.65-8.65-8.65-8.65-8.65-5.73-5.73-30.49-30.4959.5159.5155.9355.9355.9355.9370.9670.9657.0957.09v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 57.087 · range [-30.49, 70.96] · μ 20.375 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=38.6694 · σ=42.9924 · range [0.0000, 101.9139] · R²=0.028▼ FALLING -21.98%σ EXTREME 111.18%LAST 12.7875101.913976.435450.956925.47850.0000μ = 38.6694max 101.9139min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 12.79% · range [0.00%, 101.91%] · μ 38.67% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −15 (0% positive) · μ=-0.234 · σ=0.222MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.289 (-0.25σ vs μ)0.5240.2620.000-0.262-0.524μ = -0.234-0.051-0.051-0.002-0.002-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.434-0.434-0.522-0.522-0.520-0.520-0.520-0.520-0.524-0.524-0.076-0.076-0.358-0.358-0.357-0.357-0.500-0.500-0.221-0.221-0.289-0.289v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.289 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
180.0343
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.2247
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.9095
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0024
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8211
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1237
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4900
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8953
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0581
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.423 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.87e-5 · top T=2.00h (18.4%) · top-3 cover 49.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.3e-54.8e-53.2e-51.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.63e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.63e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.96e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.96e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.87e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.87e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.62e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.62e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.42e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.42e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.67e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.67e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.95e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.95e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.50e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.50e-5 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.28e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.28e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.61e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.61e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.34e-5 · 18.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.34e-5 · 18.4% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 18.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.447e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1634 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 2.5 d · σ/bar 0.017pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0123 · n = 1634✓ n = 1634
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.017pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.09pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move3d
0.14pp
σ × √61.13943416666667
Terminal variancebinary
0.0123
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1634
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
25.8pp
peak 1.6¢ → trough 1.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
80.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+7900
$100 wins $7900
FractionalUK
79.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.097 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.097 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.32 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
99652652270568942970309064472564021165081989964457329424007342330776710791270
NO token ID
88032810730787568910243444844738410845180805008192935202206067585854648524924
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 10:51:23 UTC
Snapshot age
14.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 10:51:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
328c0490338a91d1943a31fe086d12c1357ebd0e87e5411d6c0529325a9cb1be · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.6¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,041HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.97HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,743.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.012500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5600.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.317
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.837
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-2026-us-open-winner-cameron-smith-win/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.268075204460.15bp0.8990008FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.753366592692.86bp0.99700011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.942720744175.68bp0.99700011PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0077763779.55bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0077763779.55bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0077763779.55bp0.0010003PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,634 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2166.96%
σ per bar = 0.016369
Mean return (annualised)
78764.43%
μ per bar = 0.000449
Sharpe (rf=0)
36.35
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
25.81%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 134 bars

/api/asset/pm-2026-us-open-winner-cameron-smith-win/risk · same metrics, JSON