HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZETA

ZETA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zeta · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.55%
realized vol (ann.)
56.32%
max drawdown
1.82%
sharpe
-6.03
ulcer index
0.98%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.81%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-348.08
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.68%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-202.13
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.55%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +1.55%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 12.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-zeta/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.039
24h Δ · live
1.55%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
ZETA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0384 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0379, 0.0387] · R²=0.251▲ RISING +1.29%σ LOW 0.59%LAST 0.03850.03870.03850.03830.03810.0379μ = 0.0384max 0.0387min 0.0379dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,031,511 · μ=41260.4 · σ=27803.0 · CV=0.67RISING +67% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14027,41754,83482,251109,668μ = 41260109,668.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 109668 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.9s
$mark $
$0.0387
$mid $
$0.0387
◉prev-day close
$0.0381
Δ24h Δ %
+1.549%
$24h vol $
$39.58k
◐open interest $
$427.14k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0384 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0379, 0.0387] · R²=0.251▲ RISING +1.29%σ LOW 0.59%LAST 0.03850.03870.03850.03830.03810.0379μ = 0.0384max 0.0387min 0.0379dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0387 · 24h 1.55% · range $[0.0379, 0.0387]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0379, 0.0389] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=58%BULLISH +1.37%CLOSE 0.0385 vs OPEN 0.0380 (+1.37%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03850.03890.03860.03840.03810.0379μ close = 0.0384O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.08%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.08%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.32%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.32%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.37%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.37%)1.4%O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.37%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.37%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.70%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.70%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.23%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.23%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.29%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.29%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.91%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.91%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.34%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (-0.34%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.03%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.03%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.52%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.52%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.21%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.21%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.44%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.44%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.81%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.81%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.47%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.47%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.47%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.47%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.01%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (-1.01%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.37%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.37%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.00%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.038 (+0.00%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.52%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.52%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.23%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+1.23%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.13%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.13%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.39%)O0.039 H0.039 L0.039 C0.039 (-0.39%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.13%)O0.038 H0.038 L0.038 C0.038 (-0.13%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.34%)O0.038 H0.039 L0.038 C0.039 (+0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,031,511 · μ=41260.4 · σ=27803.0 · CV=0.67RISING +67% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=14027,41754,83482,251109,668μ = 4126019,363.9 · 17.7% peak19,363.9 · 17.7% peak26,397.5 · 24.1% peak26,397.5 · 24.1% peak16,380.6 · 14.9% peak16,380.6 · 14.9% peak68,265.8 · 62.2% peak68,265.8 · 62.2% peak54,299.9 · 49.5% peak54,299.9 · 49.5% peak34,929.4 · 31.9% peak34,929.4 · 31.9% peak17,982.6 · 16.4% peak17,982.6 · 16.4% peak52,647.1 · 48.0% peak52,647.1 · 48.0% peak22,663.4 · 20.7% peak22,663.4 · 20.7% peak38,821.7 · 35.4% peak38,821.7 · 35.4% peak12,766.1 · 11.6% peak12,766.1 · 11.6% peak21,203.3 · 19.3% peak21,203.3 · 19.3% peak103,612.4 · 94.5% peak103,612.4 · 94.5% peak29,479.8 · 26.9% peak29,479.8 · 26.9% peak72,036.5 · 65.7% peak72,036.5 · 65.7% peak109,668.3109,668.3 · 100.0% peak109,668.3 · 100.0% peak71,478 · 65.2% peak71,478 · 65.2% peak45,051.9 · 41.1% peak45,051.9 · 41.1% peak18,606.4 · 17.0% peak18,606.4 · 17.0% peak15,488.9 · 14.1% peak15,488.9 · 14.1% peak62,644.4 · 57.1% peak62,644.4 · 57.1% peak23,556.5 · 21.5% peak23,556.5 · 21.5% peak14,220.7 · 13.0% peak14,220.7 · 13.0% peak59,878.7 · 54.6% peak59,878.7 · 54.6% peak20,066.7 · 18.3% peak20,066.7 · 18.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1031511 · peak 109668 · CV 0.67

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0064 · skew=0.82 (right-skewed) · kurt=-0.02 (mesokurtic)54310 2-84.93bpbin -84.93bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -84.93bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-62.31bpbin -62.31bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -62.31bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-39.68bpbin -39.68bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -39.68bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-17.06bpbin -17.06bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -17.06bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 35.56bpbin 5.56bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 5.56bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 228.19bpbin 28.19bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 28.19bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 250.81bpbin 50.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 50.81bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak73.43bp 296.06bpbin 96.06bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 96.06bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1118.68bpbin 118.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 118.68bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak141.30bp 1163.92bpbin 163.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 163.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.88 · kurt=0.24 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0387
Mid price
$0.0387
24h change
+1.55%
Mark–mid spread
2.59 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0381

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0384$95% CI: [0.0383$, 0.0385$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.59%
med MEDIAN0.0384$Q₁ 0.0383$ · Q₃ 0.0386$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0379$Q₁ 0.0383$med 0.0384$Q₃ 0.0386$max 0.0387$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.470approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.541mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.73
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.50
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.053315%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.080
σᵣ STD / h0.665323%σ²ᵣ = 0.443×10⁻⁴ · CV = 12.48×
σ ANNUALISED62.27%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.665%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.50excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)10.35strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.94right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.60mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.38
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+467.04%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.74%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.745%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.920%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.871%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.16%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.745%VaR₉₉−0.920%ES₉₅−0.871%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK3.86$
−1.16% drawdown over 5h
3.82$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.24× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.18% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.637 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0388
Bollinger MA
$0.0384
Bollinger lower
$0.0381

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.387within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.005lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.012strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.778significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.012
H = 1.012STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.387k=2-0.005k=3-0.282k=4+0.274k=5-0.1330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.78)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.78)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$39.58k
Open interest (USD)
$427.14k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.09x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.75% · worst -0.96% · typical |Δ| 0.50%MILD BULLISH +1.28%BEST+1.75%15hWORST-0.96%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.28%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.52%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.28% · Σ +2.22%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.42%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.28%+1.80%-0.39%-0.32% · 13h-0.32% · 13h-0.32%13h-0.08% · 14h-0.08% · 14h-0.08%14h1.75% · 15h1.75% · 15h1.75%15h★ BEST-0.49% · 16h-0.49% · 16h-0.49%16h-0.23% · 17h-0.23% · 17h-0.23%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.94% · 19h0.94% · 19h0.94%19h-0.29% · 20h-0.29% · 20h-0.29%20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h0.31% · 23h0.31% · 23h0.31%23h-0.55% · 00h-0.55% · 00h-0.55%00h0.96% · 01h0.96% · 01h0.96%01h-0.39% · 02h-0.39% · 02h-0.39%02h0.55% · 03h0.55% · 03h0.55%03h-0.96% · 04h-0.96% · 04h-0.96%04h▼ WORST0.21% · 05h0.21% · 05h0.21%05h0.08% · 06h0.08% · 06h0.08%06h-0.42% · 07h-0.42% · 07h-0.42%07h1.27% · 08h1.27% · 08h1.27%08h0.10% · 09h0.10% · 09h0.10%09h-0.26% · 10h-0.26% · 10h-0.26%10h-0.78% · 11h-0.78% · 11h-0.78%11h0.52% · 12h0.52% · 12h0.52%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.22%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 1.75% · worst -0.96% · typical |Δ| 0.505%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.24%FINAL+1.24%MAX DD-1.17%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.77%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0124 · peak 1.0177 · range [0.9961, 1.0177]1.01770.9961break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0177UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.17% · moderate0%-1.17%▼ TROUGH -1.17%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.17%bar 9-20 · 12 bars · recovered#2 -1.04%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.73%bar 5-7 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.17%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0124 (1.24%) · max DD -1.17% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=4.95 · σ=14.87MIXED EDGELAST 9.35 (+0.30σ vs μ)34.2717.140.00-17.14-34.27μ = 4.9511.8811.8834.2734.2729.7329.73-5.64-5.64-7.15-7.159.409.40-6.38-6.38-5.52-5.52-8.17-8.178.208.20-1.66-1.66-3.91-3.9110.1710.17-27.14-27.1414.6614.665.965.9625.9625.960.000.009.359.35v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.347 · range [-27.14, 34.27] · μ 4.948 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.7006 · σ=11.0961 · range [47.0070, 82.2290] · R²=0.001▼ FALLING -10.66%σ EXTREME 17.70%LAST 69.049982.229073.423564.618055.812547.0070μ = 62.7006max 82.2290min 47.0070dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 69.05% · range [47.01%, 82.23%] · μ 62.70% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.397 · σ=0.211MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.243 (+0.73σ vs μ)0.7200.3600.000-0.360-0.720μ = -0.397-0.285-0.285-0.357-0.357-0.298-0.298-0.087-0.087-0.122-0.122-0.263-0.263-0.331-0.331-0.477-0.477-0.667-0.667-0.720-0.720-0.668-0.668-0.696-0.696-0.542-0.542-0.688-0.688-0.388-0.388-0.243-0.243-0.364-0.364-0.104-0.104-0.243-0.243v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.243 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.9013
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1422
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.3386
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0953
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.4867
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0085
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6061
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1083
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4163
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0701
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6444
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.500 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.62e-5 · top T=3.43h (19.9%) · top-3 cover 55.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.3e-55.5e-52.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.13e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.13e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.91e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.91e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.33e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.33e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.61e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.61e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.35e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.35e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.10e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.10e-4 · 19.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.85e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.53e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.53e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.13e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.13e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.06e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.06e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.05e-5 · 16.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.05e-5 · 16.3% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 19.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.543e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 6.27× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 6.27× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
6.27×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
6.27×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.13×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.57×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.57× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 0.74400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.57× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.000
annualized 0.74
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.04%
VaR 95%5%
0.04%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.09%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 191% · APY 477% · Sharpe 3.46σ ann 55% · Sortino 1.85 · n 4999
0%115%229%344%458%573%190.5%APR (simple)477.3%APY (compound)55.1%Ann. vol σ345.6%Sharpe (ann)184.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0370.0370.0380.0390.0400.040t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:22 UTC
Snapshot age
5.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:28 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e113555ad48d7db0ca06d20f408afb049138b09bac7ea0860030e44c21e04d5b · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.87K
bid $907 · ask $967
Depth within 10bp
$9.16K
bid $4.38K · ask $4.77K
Depth within 50bp
$17.07K
bid $7.90K · ask $9.17K
Mid price
0.038695
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.089
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.020
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zeta/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0387103.96bp0.0387202FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03877320.07bp0.0389109FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.039291154.09bp0.03992020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0386794.12bp0.0386702FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.03860623.08bp0.03847010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.038194129.44bp0.03761020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-zeta/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.03M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zeta/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.108 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$451.19K
real volume
Sell weight
$560.96K
real volume
Net delta
$109.77K
sellers net
Imbalance
-10.84%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
10.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-zeta/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.03% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z1.0h0.038740→0.0383401.033%2
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.038630→0.0382600.958%3
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z0ms0.038650→0.0382900.931%1

/api/asset/hl-zeta/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
55.13%
σ per bar = 0.000240
Mean return (annualised)
190.52%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
3.46
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.82%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 1534 bars

/api/asset/hl-zeta/risk · same metrics, JSON