HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZEN

ZEN-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zen · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.34%
realized vol (ann.)
43.82%
max drawdown
0.82%
sharpe
-10.25
ulcer index
0.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-976.58
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.77%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-583.42
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.34%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
5.58%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 12.5bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-zen/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$4.385
24h Δ · live
0.34%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
ZEN · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=4.4049 · σ=0.0309 · range [4.3690, 4.4906] · R²=0.039▼ FALLING -0.18%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 4.37954.49064.46024.42984.39944.3690μ = 4.4049max 4.4906min 4.3690dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $4.38
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.4%Short fee 53.6%SHORT FEE53.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.996 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000637% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=17,185 · μ=687.4 · σ=596.9 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1405121,0251,5372,050μ = 6872,049.8550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2050 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.9s
$mark $
$4.3845
$mid $
$4.3848
◉prev-day close
$4.3696
Δ24h Δ %
+0.341%
$24h vol $
$75.40k
◐open interest $
$301.81k
%funding (1h)
0.000637%
%funding (yr)
+5.58%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=4.4049 · σ=0.0309 · range [4.3690, 4.4906] · R²=0.039▼ FALLING -0.18%σ LOW 0.70%LAST 4.37954.49064.46024.42984.39944.3690μ = 4.4049max 4.4906min 4.3690dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $4.3845 · 24h 0.34% · range $[4.3690, 4.4906]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [4.3491, 4.5135] · σ=0.0309 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BULLISH +0.22%CLOSE 4.3795 vs OPEN 4.3698 (+0.22%)&#9650; CLOSE 4.37954.51354.47244.43134.39024.3491μ close = 4.4049O4.370 H4.388 L4.365 C4.388 (+0.41%)O4.370 H4.388 L4.365 C4.388 (+0.41%)O4.373 H4.386 L4.367 C4.369 (-0.09%)O4.373 H4.386 L4.367 C4.369 (-0.09%)O4.367 H4.389 L4.358 C4.381 (+0.33%)O4.367 H4.389 L4.358 C4.381 (+0.33%)O4.389 H4.409 L4.385 C4.392 (+0.06%)O4.389 H4.409 L4.385 C4.392 (+0.06%)O4.400 H4.424 L4.349 C4.407 (+0.16%)O4.400 H4.424 L4.349 C4.407 (+0.16%)O4.409 H4.410 L4.367 C4.376 (-0.74%)O4.409 H4.410 L4.367 C4.376 (-0.74%)O4.374 H4.394 L4.369 C4.382 (+0.18%)O4.374 H4.394 L4.369 C4.382 (+0.18%)O4.385 H4.388 L4.369 C4.385 (-0.01%)O4.385 H4.388 L4.369 C4.385 (-0.01%)O4.386 H4.386 L4.372 C4.372 (-0.33%)O4.386 H4.386 L4.372 C4.372 (-0.33%)1.1%O4.386 H4.447 L4.384 C4.436 (+1.15%)O4.386 H4.447 L4.384 C4.436 (+1.15%)O4.419 H4.439 L4.406 C4.412 (-0.16%)O4.419 H4.439 L4.406 C4.412 (-0.16%)O4.410 H4.418 L4.399 C4.408 (-0.05%)O4.410 H4.418 L4.399 C4.408 (-0.05%)O4.409 H4.415 L4.404 C4.411 (+0.06%)O4.409 H4.415 L4.404 C4.411 (+0.06%)O4.429 H4.469 L4.429 C4.452 (+0.50%)O4.429 H4.469 L4.429 C4.452 (+0.50%)O4.449 H4.481 L4.441 C4.463 (+0.30%)O4.449 H4.481 L4.441 C4.463 (+0.30%)O4.465 H4.513 L4.465 C4.491 (+0.57%)O4.465 H4.513 L4.465 C4.491 (+0.57%)O4.495 H4.495 L4.442 C4.445 (-1.11%)O4.495 H4.495 L4.442 C4.445 (-1.11%)O4.447 H4.447 L4.411 C4.420 (-0.60%)O4.447 H4.447 L4.411 C4.420 (-0.60%)O4.427 H4.452 L4.386 C4.393 (-0.76%)O4.427 H4.452 L4.386 C4.393 (-0.76%)O4.393 H4.403 L4.381 C4.395 (+0.04%)O4.393 H4.403 L4.381 C4.395 (+0.04%)O4.392 H4.407 L4.386 C4.394 (+0.05%)O4.392 H4.407 L4.386 C4.394 (+0.05%)O4.396 H4.406 L4.364 C4.406 (+0.23%)O4.396 H4.406 L4.364 C4.406 (+0.23%)O4.404 H4.409 L4.381 C4.382 (-0.50%)O4.404 H4.409 L4.381 C4.382 (-0.50%)O4.376 H4.397 L4.376 C4.384 (+0.19%)O4.376 H4.397 L4.376 C4.384 (+0.19%)O4.385 H4.385 L4.379 C4.380 (-0.11%)O4.385 H4.385 L4.379 C4.380 (-0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=17,185 · μ=687.4 · σ=596.9 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1405121,0251,5372,050μ = 687654.69 · 31.9% peak654.69 · 31.9% peak227.28 · 11.1% peak227.28 · 11.1% peak324.97 · 15.9% peak324.97 · 15.9% peak501.94 · 24.5% peak501.94 · 24.5% peak2,049.852,049.85 · 100.0% peak2,049.85 · 100.0% peak617.39 · 30.1% peak617.39 · 30.1% peak112.25 · 5.5% peak112.25 · 5.5% peak1,509.15 · 73.6% peak1,509.15 · 73.6% peak246.86 · 12.0% peak246.86 · 12.0% peak213.14 · 10.4% peak213.14 · 10.4% peak269.06 · 13.1% peak269.06 · 13.1% peak245.6 · 12.0% peak245.6 · 12.0% peak380.37 · 18.6% peak380.37 · 18.6% peak1,822.42 · 88.9% peak1,822.42 · 88.9% peak1,191.43 · 58.1% peak1,191.43 · 58.1% peak1,970.15 · 96.1% peak1,970.15 · 96.1% peak844.05 · 41.2% peak844.05 · 41.2% peak283.88 · 13.8% peak283.88 · 13.8% peak1,009.16 · 49.2% peak1,009.16 · 49.2% peak946.77 · 46.2% peak946.77 · 46.2% peak105.73 · 5.2% peak105.73 · 5.2% peak508.1 · 24.8% peak508.1 · 24.8% peak432.98 · 21.1% peak432.98 · 21.1% peak693.64 · 33.8% peak693.64 · 33.8% peak24.53 · 1.2% peak24.53 · 1.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 17185 · peak 2050 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0000 · σ=0.0052 · skew=0.45 (symmetric) · kurt=0.20 (mesokurtic)54310 1-92.39bpbin -92.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -92.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-71.70bpbin -71.70bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -71.70bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-51.01bpbin -51.01bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -51.01bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1-30.32bpbin -30.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -30.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-9.63bpbin -9.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -9.63bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 511.06bpbin 11.06bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 11.06bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 531.75bpbin 31.75bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 31.75bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 152.44bpbin 52.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 52.44bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak73.13bp 193.82bpbin 93.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 93.82bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak114.51bp 1135.20bpbin 135.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 135.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.56 · kurt=0.65 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$4.3845
Mid price
$4.3848
24h change
+0.34%
Mark–mid spread
0.68 bps
Prev-day close
$4.3696

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.13)
μ MEAN4.4049$95% CI: [4.3928$, 4.4170$]
σ STD DEV0.0309$σ² = 9.541×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.70%
med MEDIAN4.3945$Q₁ 4.3818$ · Q₃ 4.4119$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.1216$ · IQR 0.0301$ (1.349σ→0.0417$)
min 4.3690$Q₁ 4.3818$med 4.3945$Q₃ 4.4119$max 4.4906$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.131right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.456mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.38
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.94
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.30
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.007604%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.014
σᵣ STD / h0.547951%σ²ᵣ = 0.300×10⁻⁴ · CV = 72.06×
σ ANNUALISED51.29%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.548%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.30negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-1.33downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-26.92drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.60right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.11leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.02
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -26.92
EXPECTED EDGE-66.61%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.69%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.694%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.953%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.867%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.47%9h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.694%VaR₉₉−0.953%ES₉₅−0.867%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 9h duration
PEAK449.06$
−2.47% drawdown over 9h
437.95$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.54% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.272 · within band
Bollinger upper
$4.4745
Bollinger MA
$4.4093
Bollinger lower
$4.3441

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.145within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.070lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.840strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.969fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.840
H = 0.840STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.145k=2+0.070k=3-0.286k=4-0.035k=5+0.0020+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.97)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.83very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.97)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$75.40k
Open interest (USD)
$301.81k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.25x
1h funding
0.000637%
Funding (annualised)
+5.58%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-2.533× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-1.266× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.633×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.46% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.40%MILD BEARISH -0.18%BEST+1.46%21hWORST-1.03%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.18%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.29%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.26%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.36%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.18%+2.32%-0.42%-0.42% · 13h-0.42% · 13h-0.42%13h0.28% · 14h0.28% · 14h0.28%14h0.24% · 15h0.24% · 15h0.24%15h0.35% · 16h0.35% · 16h0.35%16h-0.71% · 17h-0.71% · 17h-0.71%17h0.13% · 18h0.13% · 18h0.13%18h0.07% · 19h0.07% · 19h0.07%19h-0.29% · 20h-0.29% · 20h-0.29%20h1.46% · 21h1.46% · 21h1.46%21h★ BEST-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.08% · 00h0.08% · 00h0.08%00h0.91% · 01h0.91% · 01h0.91%01h0.24% · 02h0.24% · 02h0.24%02h0.63% · 03h0.63% · 03h0.63%03h-1.03% · 04h-1.03% · 04h-1.03%04h▼ WORST-0.55% · 05h-0.55% · 05h-0.55%05h-0.63% · 06h-0.63% · 06h-0.63%06h0.05% · 07h0.05% · 07h0.05%07h-0.01% · 08h-0.01% · 08h-0.01%08h0.27% · 09h0.27% · 09h0.27%09h-0.56% · 10h-0.56% · 10h-0.56%10h0.06% · 11h0.06% · 11h0.06%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.36%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 1.46% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.404%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.22%)FINAL-0.22%MAX DD-2.48%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.33%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9978 · peak 1.0233 · range [0.9958, 1.0233]1.02330.9958break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0233UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.48% · moderate0%-2.48%▼ TROUGH -2.48%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -2.48%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.79%bar 6-9 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.65%bar 11-13 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.48%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9978 (-0.22%) · max DD -2.48% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-3.17 · σ=30.58MIXED EDGELAST -17.09 (-0.46σ vs μ)59.8129.910.00-29.91-59.81μ = -3.17-4.66-4.6614.4914.49-8.33-8.3321.5021.502.232.2316.0416.0414.9514.9530.6230.6244.0644.0636.5736.5717.1817.186.296.29-8.42-8.42-32.20-32.20-40.50-40.50-59.81-59.81-57.99-57.99-35.19-35.19-17.09-17.09v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.090 · range [-59.81, 44.06] · μ -3.172 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=54.4311 · σ=15.5155 · range [26.0988, 72.7722] · R²=0.064▼ FALLING -35.95%σ EXTREME 28.50%LAST 26.098872.772261.103849.435537.767126.0988μ = 54.4311max 72.7722min 26.0988dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 26.10% · range [26.10%, 72.77%] · μ 54.43% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.204 · σ=0.270MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.532 (-1.21σ vs μ)0.5320.2660.000-0.266-0.532μ = -0.204-0.323-0.323-0.245-0.245-0.354-0.354-0.249-0.249-0.447-0.447-0.521-0.521-0.517-0.517-0.468-0.468-0.263-0.2630.1660.166-0.197-0.1970.1250.1250.1940.1940.0010.001-0.222-0.2220.3380.3380.0360.036-0.400-0.400-0.532-0.532v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.532 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.6492
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2659
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.1772
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6753
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9230
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3319
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2146
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3312
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2536
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7998
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.923 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.15e-5 · top T=6.00h (20.5%) · top-3 cover 50.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.7e-55.8e-53.9e-51.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.44e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.44e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.74e-5 · 20.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.74e-5 · 20.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.67e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.67e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.82e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.82e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.28e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.28e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.17e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.17e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.54e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.54e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.83e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.83e-5 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.59e-5 · 17.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.59e-5 · 17.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 20.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.782e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-104.89×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -54.85400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.024
annualized -54.85
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -51.76σ ann 49% · Sortino -40.22 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-6212%-4958%-3703%-2449%-1195%59%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)49.4%Ann. vol σ-5176.5%Sharpe (ann)-4022.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
4.1924.2904.3884.4864.5844.682t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
1.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8629b0cdecde3496bac73dfb18c311ce94060ad795638f9c6c4fd43929ee687d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.80K
bid $1.83K · ask $1.97K
Depth within 10bp
$14.35K
bid $7.65K · ask $6.70K
Depth within 50bp
$56.35K
bid $31.80K · ask $24.55K
Mid price
4.384800
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.077
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.074
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zen/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K4.38602.69bp4.38672FILLED
BUY$10.00K4.38868.72bp4.39138FILLED
BUY$100.00K4.395323.93bp4.413220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K4.38343.13bp4.38282FILLED
SELL$10.00K4.38157.45bp4.37997FILLED
SELL$100.00K4.376419.11bp4.370120PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+6.368e-6
0.00064% / hr
Annualised APR
5.583%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
65.4d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
65.4d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-5.583%65.4d1.79y
SHORTRECEIVE5.583%65.4d1.79y

/api/asset/hl-zen/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$4.0000–$5.0000★25$17.19K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-zen/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.479 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$12.22K
real volume
Sell weight
$4.31K
real volume
Net delta
$7.92K
buyers net
Imbalance
47.90%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-zen/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.18% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h4.4906→4.39292.176%5
#22026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h4.4070→4.37600.703%3
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h4.4362→4.40760.645%3

/api/asset/hl-zen/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
49.35%
σ per bar = 0.000215
Mean return (annualised)
-2554.69%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-51.76
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.02%
peak 4.50 → trough 4.36 over 3197 bars

/api/asset/hl-zen/risk · same metrics, JSON