HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

YGG

YGG-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ygg · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.72%
realized vol (ann.)
51.21%
max drawdown
1.16%
sharpe
2.65
ulcer index
0.67%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
203.55
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.12%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
121.60
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.72%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ygg/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH940ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.025
24h Δ · live
-0.72%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
YGG · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0252 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0250, 0.0255] · R²=0.321▼ FALLING -0.89%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 0.02520.02550.02540.02520.02510.0250μ = 0.0252max 0.0255min 0.0250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.32μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,825,792 · μ=153031.7 · σ=119654.9 · CV=0.78STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110137,938275,876413,814551,752μ = 153032551,75250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 551752 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
940ms
$mark $
$0.0252
$mid $
$0.0252
◉prev-day close
$0.0254
Δ24h Δ %
-0.722%
$24h vol $
$95.74k
◐open interest $
$112.02k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0252 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0250, 0.0255] · R²=0.321▼ FALLING -0.89%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 0.02520.02550.02540.02520.02510.0250μ = 0.0252max 0.0255min 0.0250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.32μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0252 · 24h -0.72% · range $[0.0250, 0.0255]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0249, 0.0255] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=47%BEARISH -0.57%CLOSE 0.0252 vs OPEN 0.0253 (-0.57%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.02520.02550.02540.02520.02510.0249μ close = 0.0252O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.32%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.32%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.38%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.38%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.53%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.53%)0.9%O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.88%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.88%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.60%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.60%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.08%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.30%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.30%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.73%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.73%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.28%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.28%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.79%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.79%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.05%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.05%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.04%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.04%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.75%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.75%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.71%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.50%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.50%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.20%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.20%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.70%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.70%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.39%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.56%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.56%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.42%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.42%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.67%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.67%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.09%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (-0.09%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.32%)O0.025 H0.025 L0.025 C0.025 (+0.32%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,825,792 · μ=153031.7 · σ=119654.9 · CV=0.78STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110137,938275,876413,814551,752μ = 153032102,742 · 18.6% peak102,742 · 18.6% peak155,253 · 28.1% peak155,253 · 28.1% peak133,693 · 24.2% peak133,693 · 24.2% peak212,187 · 38.5% peak212,187 · 38.5% peak300,693 · 54.5% peak300,693 · 54.5% peak127,396 · 23.1% peak127,396 · 23.1% peak77,842 · 14.1% peak77,842 · 14.1% peak116,328 · 21.1% peak116,328 · 21.1% peak73,967 · 13.4% peak73,967 · 13.4% peak551,752551,752 · 100.0% peak551,752 · 100.0% peak89,191 · 16.2% peak89,191 · 16.2% peak89,570 · 16.2% peak89,570 · 16.2% peak421,790 · 76.4% peak421,790 · 76.4% peak204,228 · 37.0% peak204,228 · 37.0% peak62,717 · 11.4% peak62,717 · 11.4% peak219,003 · 39.7% peak219,003 · 39.7% peak134,907 · 24.5% peak134,907 · 24.5% peak70,805 · 12.8% peak70,805 · 12.8% peak106,385 · 19.3% peak106,385 · 19.3% peak198,852 · 36.0% peak198,852 · 36.0% peak62,291 · 11.3% peak62,291 · 11.3% peak106,267 · 19.3% peak106,267 · 19.3% peak68,946 · 12.5% peak68,946 · 12.5% peak115,534 · 20.9% peak115,534 · 20.9% peak23,453 · 4.3% peak23,453 · 4.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3825792 · peak 551752 · CV 0.78

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0056 · skew=-0.06 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.25 (platykurtic (thin tails))32210 2-92.23bpbin -92.23bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -92.23bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 2-76.42bpbin -76.42bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -76.42bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 2-60.62bpbin -60.62bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -60.62bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 2-44.81bpbin -44.81bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -44.81bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 2-29.00bpbin -29.00bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin -29.00bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 1-13.19bpbin -13.19bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin -13.19bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 22.62bpbin 2.62bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 2.62bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 218.43bpbin 18.43bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 18.43bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 334.24bpbin 34.24bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 34.24bp · n=3 · 100.0% peak 250.04bpbin 50.04bp · n=2 · 66.7% peakbin 50.04bp · n=2 · 66.7% peak 165.85bpbin 65.85bp · n=1 · 33.3% peakbin 65.85bp · n=1 · 33.3% peak 381.66bpbin 81.66bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakbin 81.66bp · n=3 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.02 · kurt=-1.23 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0252
Mid price
$0.0252
24h change
-0.72%
Mark–mid spread
3.97 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0254

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.02)
μ MEAN0.0252$95% CI: [0.0252$, 0.0253$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.47%
med MEDIAN0.0252$Q₁ 0.0252$ · Q₃ 0.0253$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0250$Q₁ 0.0252$med 0.0252$Q₃ 0.0253$max 0.0255$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.076approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.016platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.52
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.99
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.037086%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.064
σᵣ STD / h0.579830%σ²ᵣ = 0.336×10⁻⁴ · CV = 15.63×
σ ANNUALISED54.27%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.580%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.99negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.50downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.02approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.23platykurtic · thin tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-324.87%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.84%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.838%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.967%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.926%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.65%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.838%VaR₉₉−0.967%ES₉₅−0.926%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK2.55$
−1.65% drawdown over 19h
2.50$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.68% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.387 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0254
Bollinger MA
$0.0252
Bollinger lower
$0.0250

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.444negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.004lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.625persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.299significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.625
H = 0.625PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.444k=2+0.004k=3-0.244k=4+0.306k=5-0.1680+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.30)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.44 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.69very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.30)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$95.74k
Open interest (USD)
$112.02k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.85x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.90% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.50%MILD BEARISH -0.89%BEST+0.90%15hWORST-1.00%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.89%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.51%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.75%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.14%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.89%+0.26%-1.40%-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h▼ WORST0.37% · 14h0.37% · 14h0.37%14h0.90% · 15h0.90% · 15h0.90%15h★ BEST-0.76% · 16h-0.76% · 16h-0.76%16h0.16% · 17h0.16% · 17h0.16%17h-0.43% · 18h-0.43% · 18h-0.43%18h0.85% · 19h0.85% · 19h0.85%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.31% · 21h0.31% · 21h0.31%21h-0.77% · 22h-0.77% · 22h-0.77%22h-0.14% · 23h-0.14% · 23h-0.14%23h0.04% · 00h0.04% · 00h0.04%00h0.63% · 01h0.63% · 01h0.63%01h-0.65% · 02h-0.65% · 02h-0.65%02h0.77% · 03h0.77% · 03h0.77%03h-0.51% · 04h-0.51% · 04h-0.51%04h0.14% · 05h0.14% · 05h0.14%05h-0.64% · 06h-0.64% · 06h-0.64%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.35% · 08h0.35% · 08h0.35%08h0.48% · 09h0.48% · 09h0.48%09h-0.85% · 10h-0.85% · 10h-0.85%10h0.02% · 11h0.02% · 11h0.02%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.75%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.90% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.495%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.92%)FINAL-0.92%MAX DD-1.68%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.25%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9908 · peak 1.0025 · range [0.9857, 1.0025]1.00250.9857break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0025UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.68% · moderate0%-1.68%▼ TROUGH -1.68%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.68%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.68%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9908 (-0.92%) · max DD -1.68% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-6.84 · σ=14.14UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 5.97 (+0.91σ vs μ)33.0016.500.00-16.50-33.00μ = -6.84-16.43-16.4325.2825.287.917.91-6.17-6.17-6.40-6.40-14.58-14.58-2.00-2.00-9.22-9.22-16.47-16.47-2.81-2.813.853.8511.4211.42-6.27-6.27-33.00-33.00-5.02-5.02-15.62-15.62-23.19-23.19-27.21-27.215.975.97v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 5.973 · range [-33.00, 25.28] · μ -6.840 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=54.3619 · σ=6.2217 · range [43.5710, 67.7990] · R²=0.446▼ FALLING -26.87%σ HIGH 11.45%LAST 49.580967.799061.742055.685049.628043.5710μ = 54.3619max 67.7990min 43.5710dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 49.58% · range [43.57%, 67.80%] · μ 54.36% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.434 · σ=0.231MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.247 (+0.81σ vs μ)0.8220.4110.000-0.411-0.822μ = -0.434-0.320-0.320-0.409-0.409-0.636-0.636-0.565-0.565-0.624-0.624-0.548-0.548-0.369-0.369-0.209-0.209-0.374-0.374-0.386-0.386-0.769-0.769-0.822-0.822-0.707-0.707-0.613-0.613-0.343-0.3430.0480.048-0.186-0.186-0.169-0.169-0.247-0.247v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.247 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4663
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.9502
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0518
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.8126
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0032
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6080
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0219
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.1002
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0357
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.361 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.96e-5 · top T=2.00h (37.1%) · top-3 cover 61.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-41.3e-48.8e-54.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.26e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.26e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.15e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.15e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.86e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.86e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.73e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.73e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.75e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.75e-5 · 14.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.82e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.82e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.66e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.66e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.96e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.96e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 37.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 37.1% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 37.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.748e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-36.46×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -11.37400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -11.37
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -19.39σ ann 53% · Sortino -13.91 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2327%-1849%-1371%-892%-414%64%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)53.2%Ann. vol σ-1939.1%Sharpe (ann)-1390.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0240.0240.0250.0250.0260.026t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
940ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:41 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b5d35201d8ee4132f125f3613e1eb0bceee6601d877dca0f6ccaba16dcc6a8b7 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.45K
bid $580 · ask $869
Depth within 10bp
$6.15K
bid $3.36K · ask $2.78K
Depth within 50bp
$94.61K
bid $56.02K · ask $38.59K
Mid price
0.025157
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
7.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.010
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.096
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ygg/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0251684.24bp0.0251762FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02519213.59bp0.0252008FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.02525338.01bp0.02532620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0251445.51bp0.0251373FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0251349.45bp0.0251326FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02508329.48bp0.02501220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ygg/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.83M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ygg/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.270 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.36M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.36M
real volume
Net delta
$1.01M
buyers net
Imbalance
27.03%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
27.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ygg/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 7 found · deepest 1.29% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.025370→0.0250431.289%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.025458→0.0251991.017%3
#32026-06-13 13:00:00Z1.0h0.025392→0.0251390.996%2

/api/asset/hl-ygg/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
53.19%
σ per bar = 0.000232
Mean return (annualised)
-1031.37%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-19.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.90%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 939 bars

/api/asset/hl-ygg/risk · same metrics, JSON