HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XRP

XRP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xrp · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.61%
realized vol (ann.)
25.79%
max drawdown
0.63%
sharpe
-21.39
ulcer index
0.34%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1646.08
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.57%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-968.09
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.61%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-7.88%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 36%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xrp/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.142
24h Δ · live
-0.61%
24h vol · live
$10.8M
XRP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.1483 · σ=0.0038 · range [1.1423, 1.1561] · R²=0.309▼ FALLING -0.93%σ LOW 0.33%LAST 1.14231.15611.15261.14921.14581.1423μ = 1.1483max 1.1561min 1.1423dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.14
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.4%Short fee 52.6%SHORT FEE52.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000899% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,581,418 · μ=383256.7 · σ=337883.1 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=90317,818635,636953,4531,271,271μ = 3832571,271,27150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1271271 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$1.1423
$mid $
$1.1423
◉prev-day close
$1.1493
Δ24h Δ %
-0.609%
$24h vol $
$10.76M
◐open interest $
$94.65M
%funding (1h)
-0.000899%
%funding (yr)
-7.88%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.1483 · σ=0.0038 · range [1.1423, 1.1561] · R²=0.309▼ FALLING -0.93%σ LOW 0.33%LAST 1.14231.15611.15261.14921.14581.1423μ = 1.1483max 1.1561min 1.1423dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.31μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.1423 · 24h -0.61% · range $[1.1423, 1.1561]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [1.1407, 1.1603] · σ=0.0038 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -0.49%CLOSE 1.1423 vs OPEN 1.1479 (-0.49%)&#9660; CLOSE 1.14231.16031.15541.15051.14561.1407μ close = 1.1483O1.148 H1.155 L1.147 C1.153 (+0.44%)O1.148 H1.155 L1.147 C1.153 (+0.44%)O1.153 H1.154 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.22%)O1.153 H1.154 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.22%)O1.151 H1.157 L1.151 C1.154 (+0.30%)O1.151 H1.157 L1.151 C1.154 (+0.30%)O1.155 H1.160 L1.152 C1.156 (+0.13%)O1.155 H1.160 L1.152 C1.156 (+0.13%)-0.9%O1.156 H1.156 L1.143 C1.146 (-0.86%)O1.156 H1.156 L1.143 C1.146 (-0.86%)O1.147 H1.149 L1.142 C1.144 (-0.27%)O1.147 H1.149 L1.142 C1.144 (-0.27%)O1.143 H1.147 L1.143 C1.145 (+0.17%)O1.143 H1.147 L1.143 C1.145 (+0.17%)O1.145 H1.148 L1.144 C1.147 (+0.11%)O1.145 H1.148 L1.144 C1.147 (+0.11%)O1.147 H1.147 L1.144 C1.146 (-0.07%)O1.147 H1.147 L1.144 C1.146 (-0.07%)O1.146 H1.155 L1.145 C1.152 (+0.51%)O1.146 H1.155 L1.145 C1.152 (+0.51%)O1.152 H1.152 L1.149 C1.149 (-0.21%)O1.152 H1.152 L1.149 C1.149 (-0.21%)O1.149 H1.152 L1.148 C1.150 (+0.02%)O1.149 H1.152 L1.148 C1.150 (+0.02%)O1.150 H1.150 L1.148 C1.148 (-0.14%)O1.150 H1.150 L1.148 C1.148 (-0.14%)O1.149 H1.156 L1.148 C1.152 (+0.29%)O1.149 H1.156 L1.148 C1.152 (+0.29%)O1.151 H1.155 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.02%)O1.151 H1.155 L1.150 C1.151 (-0.02%)O1.151 H1.154 L1.151 C1.153 (+0.17%)O1.151 H1.154 L1.151 C1.153 (+0.17%)O1.153 H1.153 L1.146 C1.148 (-0.43%)O1.153 H1.153 L1.146 C1.148 (-0.43%)O1.148 H1.149 L1.144 C1.148 (+0.00%)O1.148 H1.149 L1.144 C1.148 (+0.00%)O1.148 H1.153 L1.145 C1.146 (-0.16%)O1.148 H1.153 L1.145 C1.146 (-0.16%)O1.146 H1.146 L1.142 C1.146 (-0.03%)O1.146 H1.146 L1.142 C1.146 (-0.03%)O1.146 H1.147 L1.144 C1.145 (-0.09%)O1.146 H1.147 L1.144 C1.145 (-0.09%)O1.145 H1.149 L1.141 C1.148 (+0.28%)O1.145 H1.149 L1.141 C1.148 (+0.28%)O1.148 H1.148 L1.143 C1.143 (-0.45%)O1.148 H1.148 L1.143 C1.143 (-0.45%)O1.143 H1.145 L1.141 C1.143 (+0.06%)O1.143 H1.145 L1.141 C1.143 (+0.06%)O1.143 H1.144 L1.141 C1.142 (-0.09%)O1.143 H1.144 L1.141 C1.142 (-0.09%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,581,418 · μ=383256.7 · σ=337883.1 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=90317,818635,636953,4531,271,271μ = 383257510,607 · 40.2% peak510,607 · 40.2% peak1,235,961 · 97.2% peak1,235,961 · 97.2% peak496,042 · 39.0% peak496,042 · 39.0% peak691,350 · 54.4% peak691,350 · 54.4% peak1,271,2711,271,271 · 100.0% peak1,271,271 · 100.0% peak265,358 · 20.9% peak265,358 · 20.9% peak100,051 · 7.9% peak100,051 · 7.9% peak178,058 · 14.0% peak178,058 · 14.0% peak91,089 · 7.2% peak91,089 · 7.2% peak442,259 · 34.8% peak442,259 · 34.8% peak595,925 · 46.9% peak595,925 · 46.9% peak158,891 · 12.5% peak158,891 · 12.5% peak297,694 · 23.4% peak297,694 · 23.4% peak936,960 · 73.7% peak936,960 · 73.7% peak396,224 · 31.2% peak396,224 · 31.2% peak68,504 · 5.4% peak68,504 · 5.4% peak231,459 · 18.2% peak231,459 · 18.2% peak195,484 · 15.4% peak195,484 · 15.4% peak301,711 · 23.7% peak301,711 · 23.7% peak253,644 · 20.0% peak253,644 · 20.0% peak111,911 · 8.8% peak111,911 · 8.8% peak376,655 · 29.6% peak376,655 · 29.6% peak186,044 · 14.6% peak186,044 · 14.6% peak144,913 · 11.4% peak144,913 · 11.4% peak43,353 · 3.4% peak43,353 · 3.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9581418 · peak 1271271 · CV 0.88

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0028 · skew=-0.69 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.60 (mesokurtic)54310 1-80.32bpbin -80.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -80.32bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-68.94bp-57.57bp 2-46.20bpbin -46.20bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -46.20bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-34.82bp 3-23.45bpbin -23.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -23.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4-12.08bpbin -12.08bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -12.08bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-0.71bpbin -0.71bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -0.71bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 310.67bpbin 10.67bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 10.67bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 322.04bpbin 22.04bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 22.04bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 233.41bpbin 33.41bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 33.41bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 144.78bpbin 44.78bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 44.78bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.79 · kurt=1.27 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.1423
Mid price
$1.1423
24h change
-0.61%
Mark–mid spread
0.44 bps
Prev-day close
$1.1493

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.03)
μ MEAN1.1483$95% CI: [1.1468$, 1.1498$]
σ STD DEV0.0038$σ² = 0.142×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.33%
med MEDIAN1.1480$Q₁ 1.1457$ · Q₃ 1.1512$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0138$ · IQR 0.0055$ (1.349σ→0.0051$)
min 1.1423$Q₁ 1.1457$med 1.1480$Q₃ 1.1512$max 1.1561$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.245approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.029platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.66
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.65
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.038848%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.135
σᵣ STD / h0.287461%σ²ᵣ = 0.083×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.40×
σ ANNUALISED26.90%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.287%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.65negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.75downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.84left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.88leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.93
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-340.31%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.46%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.460%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.769%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.661%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.19%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.460%VaR₉₉−0.769%ES₉₅−0.661%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK115.61$
−1.19% drawdown over 21h
114.23$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.44× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.67× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.21% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
38.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.107 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.1538
Bollinger MA
$1.1473
Bollinger lower
$1.1409

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.234within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.079lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.847strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.205significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.847
H = 0.847STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.234k=2-0.079k=3-0.169k=4+0.167k=5-0.3460+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.20)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.93very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.20)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$10.76M
Open interest (USD)
$94.65M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.11x
1h funding
-0.000899%
Funding (annualised)
-7.88%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -0.86% · typical |Δ| 0.21%MILD BEARISH -0.93%BEST+0.50%21hWORST-0.86%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.93%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.03%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.56%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.93%+0.27%-0.93%-0.18% · 13h-0.18% · 13h-0.18%13h0.28% · 14h0.28% · 14h0.28%14h0.17% · 15h0.17% · 15h0.17%15h-0.86% · 16h-0.86% · 16h-0.86%16h▼ WORST-0.22% · 17h-0.22% · 17h-0.22%17h0.15% · 18h0.15% · 18h0.15%18h0.12% · 19h0.12% · 19h0.12%19h-0.04% · 20h-0.04% · 20h-0.04%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h★ BEST-0.23% · 22h-0.23% · 22h-0.23%22h0.02% · 23h0.02% · 23h0.02%23h-0.11% · 00h-0.11% · 00h-0.11%00h0.31% · 01h0.31% · 01h0.31%01h-0.07% · 02h-0.07% · 02h-0.07%02h0.16% · 03h0.16% · 03h0.16%03h-0.44% · 04h-0.44% · 04h-0.44%04h-0.03% · 05h-0.03% · 05h-0.03%05h-0.16% · 06h-0.16% · 06h-0.16%06h-0.02% · 07h-0.02% · 07h-0.02%07h-0.06% · 08h-0.06% · 08h-0.06%08h0.26% · 09h0.26% · 09h0.26%09h-0.46% · 10h-0.46% · 10h-0.46%10h0.06% · 11h0.06% · 11h0.06%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.03%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.86% · typical |Δ| 0.209%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.94%)FINAL-0.94%MAX DD-1.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.27%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9906 · peak 1.0027 · range [0.9906, 1.0027]1.00270.9906break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0027UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.20% · moderate0%-1.20%▼ TROUGH -1.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.20%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.18%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9906 (-0.94%) · max DD -1.20% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-9.24 · σ=23.15UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -20.63 (-0.49σ vs μ)42.3521.170.00-21.17-42.35μ = -9.24-24.64-24.64-13.05-13.05-26.79-26.79-11.74-11.7416.3016.3033.3633.3616.0216.0225.4525.4523.7823.786.896.89-7.85-7.85-10.49-10.49-12.96-12.96-42.35-42.35-41.66-41.66-30.23-30.23-30.71-30.71-24.25-24.25-20.63-20.63v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.626 · range [-42.35, 33.36] · μ -9.239 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=26.3882 · σ=7.5339 · range [18.3825, 43.1124] · R²=0.576▼ FALLING -43.17%σ EXTREME 28.55%LAST 22.272943.112436.929930.747524.565018.3825μ = 26.3882max 43.1124min 18.3825dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 22.27% · range [18.38%, 43.11%] · μ 26.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.372 · σ=0.235MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.648 (-1.18σ vs μ)0.6480.3240.000-0.324-0.648μ = -0.372-0.088-0.0880.0260.026-0.109-0.1090.1350.135-0.510-0.510-0.554-0.554-0.494-0.494-0.512-0.512-0.464-0.464-0.398-0.398-0.409-0.409-0.394-0.394-0.307-0.307-0.572-0.572-0.585-0.585-0.081-0.081-0.482-0.482-0.628-0.628-0.648-0.648v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.648 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.3714
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0413
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.3245
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1964
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2241
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2025
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.8629
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0625
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4033
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0757
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0362
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.685 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.79e-6 · top T=2.00h (38.2%) · top-3 cover 74.3%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)4.5e-53.4e-52.2e-51.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.86e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.86e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.26e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.26e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 17.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.00e-5 · 17.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.56e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.56e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.38e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.38e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.14e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.14e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.24e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.24e-5 · 19.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.39e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.39e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.22e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.22e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.71e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.71e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.48e-5 · 38.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.48e-5 · 38.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 38.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.174e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-139.49×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -45.21400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.020
annualized -45.21
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -962% · APY -100% · Sharpe -36.64σ ann 26% · Sortino -22.78 · n 4999
-4397%-3511%-2625%-1740%-854%32%-962.4%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)26.3%Ann. vol σ-3663.9%Sharpe (ann)-2277.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.0961.1161.1371.1581.1791.200t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:28 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:30 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1f474b4e427882b0fbaf0ff3cfd7ecdb0c756ed6459dd08a8ced758e39b82b36 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,454HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.11

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$23.97K
bid $5.99K · ask $17.98K
Depth within 5bp
$422.07K
bid $165.71K · ask $256.37K
Depth within 10bp
$1.04M
bid $468.10K · ask $568.51K
Depth within 50bp
$2.07M
bid $853.48K · ask $1.21M
Mid price
1.142250
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.174
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.243
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xrp/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.14230.44bp1.14231FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.14230.44bp1.14231FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.14251.86bp1.14264FILLED
SELL$1.00K1.14220.44bp1.14221FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.14220.79bp1.14212FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.14192.93bp1.14185FILLED

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-8.993e-6
-0.00090% / hr
Annualised APR
-7.883%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
46.3d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
46.3d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE7.883%46.3d1.27y
SHORTPAY-7.883%46.3d1.27y

/api/asset/hl-xrp/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$9.58M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xrp/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.208 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.59M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.48M
real volume
Net delta
$1.88M
sellers net
Imbalance
-20.76%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
20.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-xrp/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 1.07% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h1.1561→1.14371.073%3
#22026-06-14 06:00:00Z0ms1.1531→1.14590.624%1

/api/asset/hl-xrp/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
26.27%
σ per bar = 0.000115
Mean return (annualised)
-962.38%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-36.64
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.13%
peak 1.15 → trough 1.14 over 3176 bars

/api/asset/hl-xrp/risk · same metrics, JSON