HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XLM

XLM-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xlm · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.71%
realized vol (ann.)
47.16%
max drawdown
1.91%
sharpe
-98.37
ulcer index
1.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3839.91
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.77%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2626.50
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.71%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-50.05%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change -3.71%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xlm/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.183
24h Δ · live
-3.71%
24h vol · live
$1.3M
XLM · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1867 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.1830, 0.1910] · R²=0.721▼ FALLING -3.75%σ NORMAL 1.00%LAST 0.18300.19100.18900.18700.18500.1830μ = 0.1867max 0.1910min 0.1830dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.6%Short fee 50.4%SHORT FEE50.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.005714% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,250,530 · μ=290021.2 · σ=171247.1 · CV=0.59STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110148,687297,374446,061594,748μ = 290021594,74850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 594748 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9ms
$mark $
$0.1831
$mid $
$0.1831
◉prev-day close
$0.1902
Δ24h Δ %
-3.708%
$24h vol $
$1.30M
◐open interest $
$9.42M
%funding (1h)
-0.005714%
%funding (yr)
-50.05%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1867 · σ=0.0019 · range [0.1830, 0.1910] · R²=0.721▼ FALLING -3.75%σ NORMAL 1.00%LAST 0.18300.19100.18900.18700.18500.1830μ = 0.1867max 0.1910min 0.1830dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1831 · 24h -3.71% · range $[0.1830, 0.1910]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1830, 0.1914] · σ=0.0019 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -4.30%CLOSE 0.1830 vs OPEN 0.1913 (-4.30%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.18300.19140.18930.18720.18510.1830μ close = 0.1867O0.191 H0.191 L0.190 C0.190 (-0.57%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.190 C0.190 (-0.57%)O0.190 H0.190 L0.188 C0.189 (-0.82%)O0.190 H0.190 L0.188 C0.189 (-0.82%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.188 C0.189 (+0.38%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.188 C0.189 (+0.38%)O0.189 H0.191 L0.189 C0.191 (+1.00%)O0.189 H0.191 L0.189 C0.191 (+1.00%)-1.4%O0.191 H0.191 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.45%)O0.191 H0.191 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.45%)O0.189 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-1.21%)O0.189 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-1.21%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.19%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.19%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.13%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.13%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.73%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.187 C0.187 (-0.73%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.04%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.04%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.06%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (-0.06%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.187 H0.189 L0.186 C0.188 (+0.65%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.66%)O0.188 H0.189 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.66%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.42%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (-0.42%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.08%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.08%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.26%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.26%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.31%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.31%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.03%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.03%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.10%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.10%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.49%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.49%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.183 C0.184 (-0.87%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.183 C0.184 (-0.87%)O0.183 H0.184 L0.183 C0.184 (+0.13%)O0.183 H0.184 L0.183 C0.184 (+0.13%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.183 C0.183 (-0.39%)O0.184 H0.184 L0.183 C0.183 (-0.39%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,250,530 · μ=290021.2 · σ=171247.1 · CV=0.59STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110148,687297,374446,061594,748μ = 290021382,583 · 64.3% peak382,583 · 64.3% peak125,122 · 21.0% peak125,122 · 21.0% peak121,023 · 20.3% peak121,023 · 20.3% peak387,226 · 65.1% peak387,226 · 65.1% peak577,228 · 97.1% peak577,228 · 97.1% peak406,806 · 68.4% peak406,806 · 68.4% peak136,191 · 22.9% peak136,191 · 22.9% peak522,403 · 87.8% peak522,403 · 87.8% peak594,748594,748 · 100.0% peak594,748 · 100.0% peak304,217 · 51.2% peak304,217 · 51.2% peak217,141 · 36.5% peak217,141 · 36.5% peak209,384 · 35.2% peak209,384 · 35.2% peak528,912 · 88.9% peak528,912 · 88.9% peak114,402 · 19.2% peak114,402 · 19.2% peak113,193 · 19.0% peak113,193 · 19.0% peak172,338 · 29.0% peak172,338 · 29.0% peak87,189 · 14.7% peak87,189 · 14.7% peak96,130 · 16.2% peak96,130 · 16.2% peak171,052 · 28.8% peak171,052 · 28.8% peak379,278 · 63.8% peak379,278 · 63.8% peak426,681 · 71.7% peak426,681 · 71.7% peak312,984 · 52.6% peak312,984 · 52.6% peak420,925 · 70.8% peak420,925 · 70.8% peak411,184 · 69.1% peak411,184 · 69.1% peak32,190 · 5.4% peak32,190 · 5.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7250530 · peak 594748 · CV 0.59

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0016 · σ=0.0056 · skew=-0.30 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.68 (mesokurtic)65320 2-120.17bpbin -120.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -120.17bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-101.26bpbin -101.26bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -101.26bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-82.34bpbin -82.34bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -82.34bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-63.43bpbin -63.43bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -63.43bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-44.52bpbin -44.52bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -44.52bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak-25.61bp 4-6.69bpbin -6.69bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -6.69bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 612.22bpbin 12.22bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 12.22bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 231.13bpbin 31.13bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 31.13bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 150.04bpbin 50.04bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 50.04bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 168.96bpbin 68.96bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 68.96bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 187.87bpbin 87.87bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 87.87bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.30 · kurt=-0.57 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1831
Mid price
$0.1831
24h change
-3.71%
Mark–mid spread
2.46 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1902

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1867$95% CI: [0.1860$, 0.1875$]
σ STD DEV0.0019$σ² = 0.035×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.00%
med MEDIAN0.1867$Q₁ 0.1859$ · Q₃ 0.1879$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0080$ · IQR 0.0020$ (1.349σ→0.0025$)
min 0.1830$Q₁ 0.1859$med 0.1867$Q₃ 0.1879$max 0.1910$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.199approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.056mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.24
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.25
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-25.65
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.159443%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.274
σᵣ STD / h0.581812%σ²ᵣ = 0.339×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.65×
σ ANNUALISED54.45%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.582%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-25.65negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-19.41downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.32approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.42mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.76
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1396.72%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.151%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.271%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.240%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.17%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.151%VaR₉₉−1.271%ES₉₅−1.240%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK19.10$
−4.17% drawdown over 21h
18.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.35% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
29.3 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.076 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.1887
Bollinger MA
$0.1860
Bollinger lower
$0.1834

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.041within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.413lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.766strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.711significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.766
H = 0.766STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1-0.041k=2 ★-0.413k=3-0.071k=4+0.053k=5-0.0200+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.71)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.57high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.71)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.30M
Open interest (USD)
$9.42M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.14x
1h funding
-0.005714%
Funding (annualised)
-50.05%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.97% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.44%MILD BEARISH -3.83%BEST+0.97%15hWORST-1.30%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.44%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.83%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.17%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.39%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.26%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.83%+0.44%-3.83%-0.87% · 13h-0.87% · 13h-0.87%13h0.33% · 14h0.33% · 14h0.33%14h0.97% · 15h0.97% · 15h0.97%15h★ BEST-1.30% · 16h-1.30% · 16h-1.30%16h▼ WORST-1.18% · 17h-1.18% · 17h-1.18%17h0.17% · 18h0.17% · 18h0.17%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.13% · 20h0.13% · 20h0.13%20h0.55% · 21h0.55% · 21h0.55%21h-0.69% · 22h-0.69% · 22h-0.69%22h0.02% · 23h0.02% · 23h0.02%23h0.01% · 00h0.01% · 00h0.01%00h0.62% · 01h0.62% · 01h0.62%01h-0.82% · 02h-0.82% · 02h-0.82%02h-0.40% · 03h-0.40% · 03h-0.40%03h-0.07% · 04h-0.07% · 04h-0.07%04h0.20% · 05h0.20% · 05h0.20%05h0.23% · 06h0.23% · 06h0.23%06h0.06% · 07h0.06% · 07h0.06%07h-0.04% · 08h-0.04% · 08h-0.04%08h-0.53% · 09h-0.53% · 09h-0.53%09h-0.96% · 10h-0.96% · 10h-0.96%10h0.08% · 11h0.08% · 11h0.08%11h-0.38% · 12h-0.38% · 12h-0.38%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.17%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 0.97% · worst -1.30% · typical |Δ| 0.444%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.79%)FINAL-3.79%MAX DD-4.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.43%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9621 · peak 1.0043 · range [0.9621, 1.0043]1.00430.9621break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0043UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.20% · moderate0%-4.20%▼ TROUGH -4.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.20%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.87%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9621 (-3.79%) · max DD -4.20% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-19.09 · σ=20.04UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -67.03 (-2.39σ vs μ)67.0333.510.00-33.51-67.03μ = -19.09-31.40-31.40-16.70-16.70-20.59-20.59-31.80-31.80-23.75-23.758.458.452.092.0920.6020.60-8.31-8.31-37.22-37.22-21.16-21.16-14.73-14.73-7.37-7.37-30.53-30.53-1.45-1.45-8.25-8.25-34.17-34.17-39.39-39.39-67.03-67.03v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -67.028 · range [-67.03, 20.60] · μ -19.090 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=50.6579 · σ=18.7747 · range [21.6082, 87.1244] · R²=0.607▼ FALLING -55.86%σ EXTREME 37.06%LAST 38.453087.124470.745354.366337.987321.6082μ = 50.6579max 87.1244min 21.6082dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 38.45% · range [21.61%, 87.12%] · μ 50.66% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.040 · σ=0.286CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.113 (-0.25σ vs μ)0.4960.2480.000-0.248-0.496μ = -0.040-0.083-0.0830.0400.040-0.101-0.1010.3740.374-0.183-0.183-0.376-0.376-0.394-0.394-0.283-0.283-0.496-0.496-0.187-0.187-0.193-0.193-0.178-0.178-0.124-0.1240.4610.4610.2780.2780.2040.2040.4540.4540.1370.137-0.113-0.113v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.113 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5789
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.1372
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3998
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4301
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5666
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.8059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4203
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7814
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0079
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9751
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3295
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.703 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.40e-5 · top T=3.43h (27.2%) · top-3 cover 56.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.3e-55.5e-52.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.44e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.13e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.13e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.26e-5 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.73e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.73e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.54e-5 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.54e-5 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.65e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-4 · 27.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-4 · 27.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.47e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.47e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.76e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.76e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.40e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.40e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.16e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.16e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.67e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.67e-5 · 9.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.80h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 27.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.076e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-63.46×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -34.94400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.015
annualized -34.94
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -29.54σ ann 47% · Sortino -23.91 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3545%-2825%-2105%-1385%-664%56%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)46.6%Ann. vol σ-2954.2%Sharpe (ann)-2390.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1760.1800.1830.1870.1910.195t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:28 UTC
Snapshot age
9ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a832b4799b43123e60a9b4a2c95fd3e23fa204de4dce386a525e1223c9a7d40f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$2.19K
bid $1.32K · ask $874
Depth within 5bp
$10.10K
bid $4.57K · ask $5.53K
Depth within 10bp
$39.01K
bid $9.43K · ask $29.58K
Depth within 50bp
$115.72K
bid $42.61K · ask $73.11K
Mid price
0.183055
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.263
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.584
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xlm/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1830710.89bp0.1830802FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1831283.96bp0.1831706FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.18325611.00bp0.18336020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1830400.82bp0.1830401FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1829386.38bp0.18285011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18285211.11bp0.18276020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-5.714e-5
-0.00571% / hr
Annualised APR
-50.089%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
7.3d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
7.3d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE50.089%7.3d72.9d
SHORTPAY-50.089%7.3d72.9d

/api/asset/hl-xlm/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$7.25M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xlm/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.158 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.98M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.89M
real volume
Net delta
$1.08M
buyers net
Imbalance
15.79%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-xlm/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.45% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.191010→0.1863302.450%4
#22026-06-14 09:00:00Z3.0h0.186420→0.1830401.813%4
#32026-06-14 02:00:00Z2.0h0.187910→0.1855001.283%3

/api/asset/hl-xlm/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
46.56%
σ per bar = 0.000203
Mean return (annualised)
-1375.34%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-29.54
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.18%
peak 0.19 → trough 0.18 over 2380 bars

/api/asset/hl-xlm/risk · same metrics, JSON