HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

WIF

WIF-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-wif · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.79%
realized vol (ann.)
39.95%
max drawdown
0.99%
sharpe
-4.98
ulcer index
0.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.43%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-368.08
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.92%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-215.14
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.79%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.79%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-wif/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.158
24h Δ · live
-2.79%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
WIF · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1601 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.1585, 0.1626] · R²=0.829▼ FALLING -2.45%σ LOW 0.82%LAST 0.15850.16260.16160.16050.15950.1585μ = 0.1601max 0.1626min 0.1585dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.16
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,467,646 · μ=58705.8 · σ=70756.4 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7086,427172,854259,280345,707μ = 58706345,70750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 345707 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$0.1585
$mid $
$0.1585
◉prev-day close
$0.163
Δ24h Δ %
-2.791%
$24h vol $
$231.46k
◐open interest $
$2.61M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1601 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.1585, 0.1626] · R²=0.829▼ FALLING -2.45%σ LOW 0.82%LAST 0.15850.16260.16160.16050.15950.1585μ = 0.1601max 0.1626min 0.1585dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1585 · 24h -2.79% · range $[0.1585, 0.1626]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 8 · down 17 (32% up) · range [0.1576, 0.1634] · σ=0.0013 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=34%STRONG BEARISH -2.99%CLOSE 0.1585 vs OPEN 0.1634 (-2.99%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.15850.16340.16200.16050.15910.1576μ close = 0.1601O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (-0.56%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (-0.56%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.57%)O0.163 H0.163 L0.161 C0.162 (-0.57%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.27%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.162 (+0.27%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)O0.162 H0.163 L0.162 C0.163 (+0.25%)-1.1%O0.162 H0.162 L0.160 C0.161 (-1.08%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.160 C0.161 (-1.08%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.22%)O0.160 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (+0.22%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (-0.01%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.161 (-0.01%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.160 C0.162 (+0.64%)O0.161 H0.162 L0.160 C0.162 (+0.64%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.69%)O0.162 H0.162 L0.161 C0.161 (-0.69%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.161 H0.161 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.11%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.19%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.06%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.159 C0.160 (-0.06%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.16%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (+0.16%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.02%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.160 C0.160 (-0.02%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.86%)O0.160 H0.160 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.86%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (+0.26%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (+0.26%)O0.159 H0.160 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.23%)O0.159 H0.160 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.23%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.158 (-0.03%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.158 (-0.03%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (+0.06%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (+0.06%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (+0.33%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (+0.33%)O0.159 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.41%)O0.159 H0.160 L0.159 C0.159 (-0.41%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.01%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.01%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.07%)O0.159 H0.159 L0.158 C0.159 (-0.07%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,467,646 · μ=58705.8 · σ=70756.4 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=7086,427172,854259,280345,707μ = 5870639,379 · 11.4% peak39,379 · 11.4% peak29,287 · 8.5% peak29,287 · 8.5% peak18,499 · 5.4% peak18,499 · 5.4% peak42,577 · 12.3% peak42,577 · 12.3% peak345,707345,707 · 100.0% peak345,707 · 100.0% peak185,407 · 53.6% peak185,407 · 53.6% peak118,348 · 34.2% peak118,348 · 34.2% peak52,307 · 15.1% peak52,307 · 15.1% peak30,820 · 8.9% peak30,820 · 8.9% peak64,632 · 18.7% peak64,632 · 18.7% peak15,937 · 4.6% peak15,937 · 4.6% peak53,739 · 15.5% peak53,739 · 15.5% peak46,403 · 13.4% peak46,403 · 13.4% peak16,229 · 4.7% peak16,229 · 4.7% peak30,038 · 8.7% peak30,038 · 8.7% peak37,557 · 10.9% peak37,557 · 10.9% peak90,887 · 26.3% peak90,887 · 26.3% peak44,847 · 13.0% peak44,847 · 13.0% peak42,774 · 12.4% peak42,774 · 12.4% peak31,199 · 9.0% peak31,199 · 9.0% peak19,230 · 5.6% peak19,230 · 5.6% peak61,776 · 17.9% peak61,776 · 17.9% peak19,129 · 5.5% peak19,129 · 5.5% peak12,645 · 3.7% peak12,645 · 3.7% peak18,293 · 5.3% peak18,293 · 5.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1467646 · peak 345707 · CV 1.21

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0040 · skew=-0.82 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.51 (mesokurtic)86420 1-117.43bpbin -117.43bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -117.43bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-101.02bp 1-84.60bpbin -84.60bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -84.60bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1-68.18bpbin -68.18bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -68.18bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 1-51.77bpbin -51.77bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -51.77bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 3-35.35bpbin -35.35bp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -35.35bp · n=3 · 37.5% peak 1-18.93bpbin -18.93bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -18.93bp · n=1 · 12.5% peak 8-2.52bpbin -2.52bp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -2.52bp · n=8 · 100.0% peak 213.90bpbin 13.90bp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 13.90bp · n=2 · 25.0% peak 530.31bpbin 30.31bp · n=5 · 62.5% peakbin 30.31bp · n=5 · 62.5% peak46.73bp 163.15bpbin 63.15bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 63.15bp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.82 · kurt=0.80 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1585
Mid price
$0.1585
24h change
-2.79%
Mark–mid spread
0.63 bps
Prev-day close
$0.163

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.01)
μ MEAN0.1601$95% CI: [0.1595$, 0.1606$]
σ STD DEV0.0013$σ² = 0.017×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.82%
med MEDIAN0.1600$Q₁ 0.1586$ · Q₃ 0.1606$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0041$ · IQR 0.0020$ (1.349σ→0.0018$)
min 0.1585$Q₁ 0.1586$med 0.1600$Q₃ 0.1606$max 0.1626$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.403approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.012platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.14
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-22.44
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.103315%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.240
σᵣ STD / h0.430913%σ²ᵣ = 0.186×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.17×
σ ANNUALISED40.33%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.431%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-22.44negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-20.51downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.87left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.30leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-905.04%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.83%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.830%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.161%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.049%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.53%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.830%VaR₉₉−1.161%ES₉₅−1.049%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK16.26$
−2.53% drawdown over 16h
15.85$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.40× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.59% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
33.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.223 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1615
Bollinger MA
$0.1596
Bollinger lower
$0.1577

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.335within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.066lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.699persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.574significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.699
H = 0.699PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.335k=2-0.066k=3-0.101k=4+0.065k=5-0.2830+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.57)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.73very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.57)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$231.46k
Open interest (USD)
$2.61M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.09x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.71% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.30%BEARISH SESSION -2.48%BEST+0.71%21hWORST-1.26%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.30%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.48%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.16%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.08%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.48%+0.05%-2.51%-0.57% · 13h-0.57% · 13h-0.57%13h0.30% · 14h0.30% · 14h0.30%14h0.32% · 15h0.32% · 15h0.32%15h-1.26% · 16h-1.26% · 16h-1.26%16h▼ WORST-0.07% · 17h-0.07% · 17h-0.07%17h-0.11% · 18h-0.11% · 18h-0.11%18h0.27% · 19h0.27% · 19h0.27%19h-0.07% · 20h-0.07% · 20h-0.07%20h0.71% · 21h0.71% · 21h0.71%21h★ BEST-0.76% · 22h-0.76% · 22h-0.76%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h-0.34% · 00h-0.34% · 00h-0.34%00h-0.02% · 01h-0.02% · 01h-0.02%01h0.14% · 02h0.14% · 02h0.14%02h-0.02% · 03h-0.02% · 03h-0.02%03h-0.84% · 04h-0.84% · 04h-0.84%04h0.23% · 05h0.23% · 05h0.23%05h-0.28% · 06h-0.28% · 06h-0.28%06h-0.03% · 07h-0.03% · 07h-0.03%07h0.08% · 08h0.08% · 08h0.08%08h0.34% · 09h0.34% · 09h0.34%09h-0.35% · 10h-0.35% · 10h-0.35%10h-0.03% · 11h-0.03% · 11h-0.03%11h-0.01% · 12h-0.01% · 12h-0.01%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.08%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.71% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.303%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.47%)FINAL-2.47%MAX DD-2.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.05%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9753 · peak 1.0005 · range [0.9750, 1.0005]1.00050.9750break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0005UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.55% · moderate0%-2.55%▼ TROUGH -2.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.55%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.57%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9753 (-2.47%) · max DD -2.55% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-21.34 · σ=16.44UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.44 (+1.32σ vs μ)53.4026.700.00-26.70-53.40μ = -21.34-35.92-35.92-13.99-13.99-25.03-25.03-12.51-12.51-1.00-1.00-2.39-2.39-9.62-9.62-19.33-19.33-12.02-12.02-53.40-53.40-52.60-52.60-33.69-33.69-31.75-31.75-32.04-32.04-35.26-35.26-18.23-18.23-0.71-0.71-16.40-16.400.440.44v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.442 · range [-53.40, 0.44] · μ -21.340 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=40.8645 · σ=11.4611 · range [20.8410, 61.1628] · R²=0.819▼ FALLING -62.89%σ EXTREME 28.05%LAST 20.841061.162851.082341.001930.921520.8410μ = 40.8645max 61.1628min 20.8410dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 20.84% · range [20.84%, 61.16%] · μ 40.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.327 · σ=0.173MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.342 (-0.09σ vs μ)0.5360.2680.000-0.268-0.536μ = -0.327-0.334-0.334-0.192-0.192-0.342-0.342-0.007-0.007-0.536-0.536-0.469-0.469-0.396-0.396-0.452-0.452-0.409-0.4090.0560.056-0.050-0.050-0.384-0.384-0.432-0.432-0.496-0.496-0.535-0.535-0.249-0.249-0.398-0.398-0.246-0.246-0.342-0.342v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.342 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.7471
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0932
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.2393
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2829
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8132
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3842
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6297
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5289
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8640
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0050
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5278
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1266
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.535 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.14e-5 · top T=2.00h (33.4%) · top-3 cover 75.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)8.6e-56.4e-54.3e-52.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.69e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.69e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.50e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.50e-6 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.72e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.72e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.21e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.21e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.21e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.21e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.22e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.22e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.03e-5 · 27.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.03e-5 · 27.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.36e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.36e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.84e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.84e-6 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.55e-5 · 33.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.55e-5 · 33.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 33.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.563e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-66.58×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.26400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.26
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -27.09σ ann 41% · Sortino -17.48 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3251%-2591%-1931%-1271%-611%49%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)40.7%Ann. vol σ-2709.4%Sharpe (ann)-1747.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1510.1540.1570.1600.1630.166t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:04 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b7702a08121e6584a9ad0bb0fb7307af83839bdd5dac03372a5f6b96461af6ad · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.55K
bid $3.36K · ask $188
Depth within 10bp
$11.28K
bid $7.30K · ask $3.98K
Depth within 50bp
$51.28K
bid $34.57K · ask $16.71K
Mid price
0.158485
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.350
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.758
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wif/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1585725.47bp0.1585906FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.15865410.68bp0.15872012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.15870013.57bp0.15884020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1584561.80bp0.1584502FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1583906.02bp0.15831012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.15826813.66bp0.15815020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-wif/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.47M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wif/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.532 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$333.91K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.09M
real volume
Net delta
$760.46K
sellers net
Imbalance
-53.24%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
53.2%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-wif/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.42% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.162590→0.1602801.421%3
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.161740→0.1597801.212%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.159980→0.1585200.913%3

/api/asset/hl-wif/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
40.69%
σ per bar = 0.000177
Mean return (annualised)
-1102.53%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-27.09
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.54%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.16 over 950 bars

/api/asset/hl-wif/risk · same metrics, JSON