HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

WCT

WCT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-wct · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.59%
realized vol (ann.)
122.41%
max drawdown
0.84%
sharpe
86.05
ulcer index
0.41%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.36%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
25860.39
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.74%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.29
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
14164.60
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.29
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.59%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +4.59%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-wct/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH241ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.049
24h Δ · live
4.59%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
WCT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0470 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0465, 0.0488] · R²=0.100▲ RISING +4.55%σ LOW 0.94%LAST 0.04880.04880.04820.04770.04710.0465μ = 0.0470max 0.0488min 0.0465dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,058,083 · μ=122323.3 · σ=206835.0 · CV=1.69BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110187,645375,290562,934750,579μ = 122323750,57950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 750579 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
241ms
$mark $
$0.0489
$mid $
$0.0489
◉prev-day close
$0.0468
Δ24h Δ %
+4.588%
$24h vol $
$144.08k
◐open interest $
$153.87k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0470 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0465, 0.0488] · R²=0.100▲ RISING +4.55%σ LOW 0.94%LAST 0.04880.04880.04820.04770.04710.0465μ = 0.0470max 0.0488min 0.0465dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0489 · 24h 4.59% · range $[0.0465, 0.0488]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0465, 0.0495] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=53%BULLISH +4.20%CLOSE 0.0488 vs OPEN 0.0468 (+4.20%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.04880.04950.04870.04800.04720.0465μ close = 0.0470O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.34%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.34%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.26%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (+0.26%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (-0.30%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.046 C0.047 (-0.30%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.048 (+2.20%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.048 (+2.20%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.30%)O0.048 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (-1.30%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.52%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.52%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.47%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.47%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.25%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.25%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.26%)O0.047 H0.048 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.26%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.05%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.05%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.28%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.28%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.49%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.34%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.34%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.44%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.44%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.46%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.46%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.27%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.27%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.13%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.88%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+0.88%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.41%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.41%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (-0.15%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+1.17%)O0.047 H0.047 L0.047 C0.047 (+1.17%)3.0%O0.047 H0.049 L0.047 C0.049 (+3.01%)O0.047 H0.049 L0.047 C0.049 (+3.01%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,058,083 · μ=122323.3 · σ=206835.0 · CV=1.69BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110187,645375,290562,934750,579μ = 12232347,235 · 6.3% peak47,235 · 6.3% peak38,785 · 5.2% peak38,785 · 5.2% peak9,570 · 1.3% peak9,570 · 1.3% peak592,306 · 78.9% peak592,306 · 78.9% peak116,698 · 15.5% peak116,698 · 15.5% peak47,175 · 6.3% peak47,175 · 6.3% peak68,144 · 9.1% peak68,144 · 9.1% peak13,916 · 1.9% peak13,916 · 1.9% peak15,772 · 2.1% peak15,772 · 2.1% peak4,744 · 0.6% peak4,744 · 0.6% peak619,463 · 82.5% peak619,463 · 82.5% peak70,692 · 9.4% peak70,692 · 9.4% peak24,131 · 3.2% peak24,131 · 3.2% peak18,328 · 2.4% peak18,328 · 2.4% peak212,669 · 28.3% peak212,669 · 28.3% peak30,368 · 4.0% peak30,368 · 4.0% peak63,291 · 8.4% peak63,291 · 8.4% peak123,924 · 16.5% peak123,924 · 16.5% peak43,261 · 5.8% peak43,261 · 5.8% peak28,216 · 3.8% peak28,216 · 3.8% peak14,368 · 1.9% peak14,368 · 1.9% peak39,016 · 5.2% peak39,016 · 5.2% peak24,442 · 3.3% peak24,442 · 3.3% peak40,990 · 5.5% peak40,990 · 5.5% peak750,579750,579 · 100.0% peak750,579 · 100.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3058083 · peak 750579 · CV 1.69

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0022 · σ=0.0089 · skew=1.35 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.97 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 1-124.18bpbin -124.18bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -124.18bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-87.58bpbin -87.58bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -87.58bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 3-50.97bpbin -50.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -50.97bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 7-14.37bpbin -14.37bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -14.37bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 522.24bpbin 22.24bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 22.24bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 458.84bpbin 58.84bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 58.84bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak95.45bp 1132.05bpbin 132.05bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 132.05bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak168.66bp205.26bp 1241.86bpbin 241.86bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 241.86bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1278.47bpbin 278.47bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 278.47bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.45 · kurt=2.47 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0489
Mid price
$0.0489
24h change
+4.59%
Mark–mid spread
6.75 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0468

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=6.96)
μ MEAN0.0470$95% CI: [0.0469$, 0.0472$]
σ STD DEV0.0004$σ² = 0.002×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.94%
med MEDIAN0.0470$Q₁ 0.0468$ · Q₃ 0.0471$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0022$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0006$)
min 0.0465$Q₁ 0.0468$med 0.0470$Q₃ 0.0471$max 0.0488$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.439right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.957leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.17
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.91
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.03
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=18.67
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.185546%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.200
σᵣ STD / h0.929966%σ²ᵣ = 0.865×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.01×
σ ANNUALISED87.04%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.930%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)18.67excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)31.75strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.55right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.38leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.70
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1625.38%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.74%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.738%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.273%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.094%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.01%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.738%VaR₉₉−1.273%ES₉₅−1.094%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK4.76$
−2.01% drawdown over 16h
4.67$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.48× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.72× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
72.4 · overbought
Bollinger %B
1.458 · above upper band
Bollinger upper
$0.0480
Bollinger MA
$0.0471
Bollinger lower
$0.0462

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.090within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.009lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.686persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.600fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.686
H = 0.686PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.090k=2-0.009k=3-0.101k=4+0.140k=5-0.0920+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.60)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.46high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$144.08k
Open interest (USD)
$153.87k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.94x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.97% · worst -1.42% · typical |Δ| 0.59%MILD BULLISH +4.45%BEST+2.97%12hWORST-1.42%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.59%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.34%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.81% · Σ +6.48%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.69%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.45%+4.45%-0.20%0.07% · 13h0.07% · 13h0.07%13h-0.27% · 14h-0.27% · 14h-0.27%14h2.32% · 15h2.32% · 15h2.32%15h-1.42% · 16h-1.42% · 16h-1.42%16h▼ WORST-0.29% · 17h-0.29% · 17h-0.29%17h-0.12% · 18h-0.12% · 18h-0.12%18h0.49% · 19h0.49% · 19h0.49%19h-0.02% · 20h-0.02% · 20h-0.02%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h0.13% · 23h0.13% · 23h0.13%23h-0.76% · 00h-0.76% · 00h-0.76%00h0.05% · 01h0.05% · 01h0.05%01h-0.39% · 02h-0.39% · 02h-0.39%02h0.66% · 03h0.66% · 03h0.66%03h-0.59% · 04h-0.59% · 04h-0.59%04h0.08% · 05h0.08% · 05h0.08%05h-0.11% · 06h-0.11% · 06h-0.11%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.75% · 08h0.75% · 08h0.75%08h-0.45% · 09h-0.45% · 09h-0.45%09h-0.10% · 10h-0.10% · 10h-0.10%10h1.19% · 11h1.19% · 11h1.19%11h2.97% · 12h2.97% · 12h2.97%12h★ BESTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+6.48%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.97% · worst -1.42% · typical |Δ| 0.586%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.45%FINAL+4.45%MAX DD-2.03%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+4.45%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0445 · peak 1.0445 · range [0.9980, 1.0445]1.04450.9980break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0445UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.03% · moderate0%-2.03%▼ TROUGH -2.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.03%bar 5-24 · 20 bars · recovered#2 -0.27%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.03%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0445 (4.45%) · max DD -2.03% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=3.22 · σ=24.90MIXED EDGELAST 49.30 (+1.85σ vs μ)61.2030.600.00-30.60-61.20μ = 3.223.633.638.918.9112.1412.14-19.26-19.2629.0729.0761.2061.2012.8512.85-2.26-2.26-15.06-15.06-8.01-8.01-26.14-26.14-27.94-27.94-10.31-10.31-22.17-22.1714.9514.95-19.61-19.61-4.06-4.0623.9323.9349.3049.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 49.302 · range [-27.94, 61.20] · μ 3.219 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=59.6224 · σ=31.7847 · range [24.4778, 120.6558] · R²=0.073▲ RISING +4.71%σ EXTREME 53.31%LAST 120.6558120.655896.611372.566848.522324.4778μ = 59.6224max 120.6558min 24.4778dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 120.66% · range [24.48%, 120.66%] · μ 59.62% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.378 · σ=0.272MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.180 (+2.05σ vs μ)0.7810.3900.000-0.390-0.781μ = -0.378-0.465-0.465-0.467-0.467-0.360-0.3600.1440.144-0.221-0.221-0.732-0.732-0.129-0.129-0.146-0.146-0.181-0.181-0.383-0.383-0.636-0.636-0.595-0.595-0.781-0.781-0.699-0.699-0.399-0.399-0.471-0.471-0.560-0.560-0.287-0.2870.1800.180v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.180 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
21.0123
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.4090
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9226
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3962
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5828
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.6697
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0950
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2229
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3167
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5861
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1127
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.517 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.64e-5 · top T=3.43h (17.6%) · top-3 cover 42.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-41.4e-49.1e-54.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.83e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.83e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.58e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.58e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.99e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.99e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.82e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.82e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.43e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.23e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.23e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.81e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.81e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.36e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.36e-5 · 8.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 17.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.036e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.006%/barparametric μ/σ² 49.94× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
49.94×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 44.48400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.019
annualized 44.48
μ per barafter L
0.002%
σ per barafter L
0.11%
VaR 95%5%
0.10%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.20%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.96×1.00×1.04×1.08×1.12×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 44.50σ ann 89% · Sortino 47.28 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1135%2269%3404%4539%5673%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)89.1%Ann. vol σ4449.8%Sharpe (ann)4727.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.050% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0450.0460.0470.0490.0500.051t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
241ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b45e89a130bfb0d15e8814f6dbd45f366e3ff1661310abfc055c698a7ee8bc27 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$8.70K
bid $3.44K · ask $5.26K
Mid price
0.048919
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
32.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.008
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.267
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wct/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04903223.14bp0.0490433FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.04920358.11bp0.04946620FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.04920458.28bp0.04946620PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.04882918.22bp0.0488263FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.04860963.19bp0.04839620PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.04860963.19bp0.04839620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-wct/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.06M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-wct/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.540 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.32M
real volume
Sell weight
$692.38K
real volume
Net delta
$1.63M
buyers net
Imbalance
54.01%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
54.0%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-wct/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.82% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.047642→0.0467771.816%3
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.047315→0.0467991.091%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.047111→0.0468200.618%3

/api/asset/hl-wct/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
89.10%
σ per bar = 0.000389
Mean return (annualised)
3964.90%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
44.50
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.84%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 709 bars

/api/asset/hl-wct/risk · same metrics, JSON