HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

VINE

VINE-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-vine · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.80%
realized vol (ann.)
88.56%
max drawdown
1.43%
sharpe
-29.61
ulcer index
0.81%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.72%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3246.07
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.34%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1962.82
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.80%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 45%suggested side: SELL
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 39.1bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-vine/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH829ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.013
24h Δ · live
-0.80%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
VINE · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0126 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0124, 0.0128] · R²=0.082▼ FALLING -1.81%σ LOW 0.93%LAST 0.01260.01280.01270.01260.01250.0124μ = 0.0126max 0.0128min 0.0124dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,584,100 · μ=143364.0 · σ=127771.8 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140125,359250,718376,077501,436μ = 143364501,43650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 501436 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
829ms
$mark $
$0.0126
$mid $
$0.0126
◉prev-day close
$0.0127
Δ24h Δ %
-0.797%
$24h vol $
$45.02k
◐open interest $
$436.13k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0126 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0124, 0.0128] · R²=0.082▼ FALLING -1.81%σ LOW 0.93%LAST 0.01260.01280.01270.01260.01250.0124μ = 0.0126max 0.0128min 0.0124dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0126 · 24h -0.80% · range $[0.0124, 0.0128]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0123, 0.0129] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BEARISH -0.28%CLOSE 0.0126 vs OPEN 0.0126 (-0.28%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01260.01290.01280.01260.01250.0123μ close = 0.0126O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.56%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.56%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.37%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.37%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.52%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.52%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.61%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.61%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.63%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.63%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.06%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.06%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.47%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.24%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.13%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+1.13%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.08%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-1.08%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.012 C0.013 (-0.68%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.40%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.40%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.29%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.29%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.15%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (-0.15%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.17%)O0.012 H0.012 L0.012 C0.012 (+0.17%)3.3%O0.012 H0.013 L0.012 C0.013 (+3.28%)O0.012 H0.013 L0.012 C0.013 (+3.28%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.09%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.28%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.28%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.70%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.70%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.50%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.50%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (+0.02%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.28%)O0.013 H0.013 L0.013 C0.013 (-0.28%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,584,100 · μ=143364.0 · σ=127771.8 · CV=0.89BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140125,359250,718376,077501,436μ = 14336449,747 · 9.9% peak49,747 · 9.9% peak501,436501,436 · 100.0% peak501,436 · 100.0% peak38,474 · 7.7% peak38,474 · 7.7% peak47,674 · 9.5% peak47,674 · 9.5% peak132,321 · 26.4% peak132,321 · 26.4% peak63,222 · 12.6% peak63,222 · 12.6% peak163,261 · 32.6% peak163,261 · 32.6% peak110,931 · 22.1% peak110,931 · 22.1% peak29,520 · 5.9% peak29,520 · 5.9% peak305,377 · 60.9% peak305,377 · 60.9% peak94,541 · 18.9% peak94,541 · 18.9% peak109,397 · 21.8% peak109,397 · 21.8% peak96,239 · 19.2% peak96,239 · 19.2% peak163,766 · 32.7% peak163,766 · 32.7% peak241,490 · 48.2% peak241,490 · 48.2% peak78,433 · 15.6% peak78,433 · 15.6% peak122,687 · 24.5% peak122,687 · 24.5% peak63,789 · 12.7% peak63,789 · 12.7% peak408,103 · 81.4% peak408,103 · 81.4% peak352,481 · 70.3% peak352,481 · 70.3% peak64,589 · 12.9% peak64,589 · 12.9% peak26,463 · 5.3% peak26,463 · 5.3% peak19,775 · 3.9% peak19,775 · 3.9% peak226,485 · 45.2% peak226,485 · 45.2% peak73,899 · 14.7% peak73,899 · 14.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3584100 · peak 501436 · CV 0.89

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0082 · skew=1.61 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.57 (leptokurtic (fat tails))54310 4-96.27bpbin -96.27bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -96.27bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 4-61.77bpbin -61.77bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -61.77bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 5-27.28bpbin -27.28bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -27.28bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 37.21bpbin 7.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 7.21bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 541.70bpbin 41.70bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 41.70bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 176.20bpbin 76.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 76.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1110.69bpbin 110.69bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 110.69bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak145.18bp179.67bp214.17bp248.66bp 1283.15bpbin 283.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 283.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.80 · kurt=4.45 · near 18 / mid 5 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.56σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0126
Mid price
$0.0126
24h change
-0.80%
Mark–mid spread
7.16 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0127

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0126$95% CI: [0.0126$, 0.0127$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.93%
med MEDIAN0.0126$Q₁ 0.0126$ · Q₃ 0.0127$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0002$)
min 0.0124$Q₁ 0.0126$med 0.0126$Q₃ 0.0127$max 0.0128$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.404approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.893mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.30
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.24
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-8.16
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.076196%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.087
σᵣ STD / h0.874342%σ²ᵣ = 0.764×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.47×
σ ANNUALISED81.83%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.874%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-8.16negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-10.46downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.93right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.84leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.28
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-667.47%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.06%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.062%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.123%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.109%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.95%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.062%VaR₉₉−1.123%ES₉₅−1.109%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK1.28$
−2.95% drawdown over 16h
1.24$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.04% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
43.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.394 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0129
Bollinger MA
$0.0126
Bollinger lower
$0.0124

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.163within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.203lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.775strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.433fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.775
H = 0.775STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.163k=2-0.203k=3+0.228k=4-0.140k=5-0.2920+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.43)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.71very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.43)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$45.02k
Open interest (USD)
$436.13k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.10x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-9.967× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-4.984× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.492×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.00% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.62%MILD BEARISH -1.83%BEST+3.00%06hWORST-1.14%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.62%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.83%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.18% · Σ +1.41%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.22% · Σ -1.80%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.44%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.83%+0.03%-3.00%-1.08% · 13h-1.08% · 13h-1.08%13h0.35% · 14h0.35% · 14h0.35%14h0.74% · 15h0.74% · 15h0.74%15h-0.94% · 16h-0.94% · 16h-0.94%16h-0.38% · 17h-0.38% · 17h-0.38%17h0.35% · 18h0.35% · 18h0.35%18h0.36% · 19h0.36% · 19h0.36%19h-0.78% · 20h-0.78% · 20h-0.78%20h1.04% · 21h1.04% · 21h1.04%21h-1.14% · 22h-1.14% · 22h-1.14%22h▼ WORST0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h-0.13% · 00h-0.13% · 00h-0.13%00h-0.80% · 01h-0.80% · 01h-0.80%01h-0.49% · 02h-0.49% · 02h-0.49%02h0.31% · 03h0.31% · 03h0.31%03h-0.44% · 04h-0.44% · 04h-0.44%04h0.02% · 05h0.02% · 05h0.02%05h3.00% · 06h3.00% · 06h3.00%06h★ BEST-0.06% · 07h-0.06% · 07h-0.06%07h-0.75% · 08h-0.75% · 08h-0.75%08h0.31% · 09h0.31% · 09h0.31%09h-0.74% · 10h-0.74% · 10h-0.74%10h-0.26% · 11h-0.26% · 11h-0.26%11h-0.36% · 12h-0.36% · 12h-0.36%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.41%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 3.00% · worst -1.14% · typical |Δ| 0.620%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.90%)FINAL-1.90%MAX DD-2.99%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9810 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9701, 1.0000]1.00000.9701break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.99% · moderate0%-2.99%▼ TROUGH -2.99%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.99%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.99%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9810 (-1.90%) · max DD -2.99% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-12.72 · σ=32.57MIXED EDGELAST -71.62 (-1.81σ vs μ)71.6235.810.00-35.81-71.62μ = -12.72-20.17-20.1711.9311.93-14.86-14.86-7.15-7.15-10.43-10.43-2.30-2.30-11.97-11.97-34.87-34.87-30.16-30.16-63.07-63.07-58.14-58.14-59.54-59.5417.9117.9127.8627.8624.1324.1324.0524.0520.0220.0216.6316.63-71.62-71.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -71.624 · range [-71.62, 27.86] · μ -12.725 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=82.5592 · σ=34.2691 · range [37.5950, 131.8166] · R²=0.212▼ FALLING -46.17%σ EXTREME 41.51%LAST 37.9135131.8166108.261284.705861.150437.5950μ = 82.5592max 131.8166min 37.5950dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 37.91% · range [37.60%, 131.82%] · μ 82.56% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.325 · σ=0.269MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.810 (-1.81σ vs μ)0.8100.4050.000-0.405-0.810μ = -0.325-0.231-0.231-0.039-0.039-0.298-0.298-0.262-0.262-0.662-0.662-0.685-0.685-0.791-0.791-0.667-0.667-0.445-0.445-0.238-0.238-0.170-0.170-0.284-0.2840.0260.026-0.197-0.197-0.133-0.133-0.131-0.131-0.140-0.140-0.016-0.016-0.810-0.810v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.810 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
48.9288
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.8557
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2305
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6875
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0797
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2183
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3248
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0882
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2765
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.669 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.42e-5 · top T=3.00h (38.6%) · top-3 cover 63.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.4e-42.6e-41.7e-48.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 7.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.28e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.28e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.11e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.46e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.46e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.44e-4 · 38.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.44e-4 · 38.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.16e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.16e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.07e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.07e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.93e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.93e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 2.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 38.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.902e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 7.13× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 7.03× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
7.13×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
7.03×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
3.57×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.78×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 1.76× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 1.93400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 1.76× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.001
annualized 1.93
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.08%
VaR 95%5%
0.07%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.15%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 705% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 7.04σ ann 100% · Sortino 5.18 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%705.4%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)100.2%Ann. vol σ704.2%Sharpe (ann)518.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0120.0120.0120.0130.0130.013t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
829ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
52aa3e3e28feea387e0b679b374bc1709da5e9bc21d91ba08573045241e2ad03 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$890
bid $260 · ask $630
Depth within 50bp
$13.06K
bid $6.20K · ask $6.86K
Mid price
0.012558
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
14.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.083
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.145
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-vine/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01257110.11bp0.0125772FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01260739.29bp0.01265010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.012759159.99bp0.01293520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01254113.85bp0.0125374FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01250641.41bp0.01246611FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.012369150.54bp0.01220020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-vine/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$3.58M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-vine/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.235 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.35M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.18M
real volume
Net delta
$830.55K
sellers net
Imbalance
-23.50%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
23.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-vine/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.61% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z6.0h0.012758→0.0124252.610%7
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.012799→0.0125711.781%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.012803→0.0126351.312%3

/api/asset/hl-vine/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
100.17%
σ per bar = 0.000437
Mean return (annualised)
705.39%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.04
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.61%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3430 bars

/api/asset/hl-vine/risk · same metrics, JSON