HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

USUAL

USUAL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-usual · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.76%
realized vol (ann.)
68.71%
max drawdown
1.46%
sharpe
-11.23
ulcer index
0.78%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.64%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-987.35
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-560.07
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.76%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.76%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-usual/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.010
24h Δ · live
-2.76%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
USUAL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0103 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0102, 0.0105] · R²=0.644▼ FALLING -1.45%σ NORMAL 1.04%LAST 0.01020.01050.01040.01030.01020.0102μ = 0.0103max 0.0105min 0.0102dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,587,674 · μ=103507.0 · σ=141181.6 · CV=1.36BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=60149,654299,308448,962598,616μ = 103507598,615.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 598616 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
$mark $
$0.0102
$mid $
$0.0102
◉prev-day close
$0.0105
Δ24h Δ %
-2.765%
$24h vol $
$25.48k
◐open interest $
$153.71k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0103 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0102, 0.0105] · R²=0.644▼ FALLING -1.45%σ NORMAL 1.04%LAST 0.01020.01050.01040.01030.01020.0102μ = 0.0103max 0.0105min 0.0102dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0102 · 24h -2.76% · range $[0.0102, 0.0105]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0101, 0.0105] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=62%BEARISH -2.39%CLOSE 0.0102 vs OPEN 0.0104 (-2.39%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01020.01050.01040.01030.01020.0101μ close = 0.0103O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.96%)O0.010 H0.011 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.96%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.48%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.48%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.10%)1.2%O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.16%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+1.16%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.38%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.19%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.00%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.49%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.39%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.68%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (+0.20%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)O0.010 H0.010 L0.010 C0.010 (-0.10%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,587,674 · μ=103507.0 · σ=141181.6 · CV=1.36BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=60149,654299,308448,962598,616μ = 103507598,615.9598,615.9 · 100.0% peak598,615.9 · 100.0% peak297,742.7 · 49.7% peak297,742.7 · 49.7% peak4,788.1 · 0.8% peak4,788.1 · 0.8% peak3,660.3 · 0.6% peak3,660.3 · 0.6% peak339,830.3 · 56.8% peak339,830.3 · 56.8% peak137,301.9 · 22.9% peak137,301.9 · 22.9% peak35,694.6 · 6.0% peak35,694.6 · 6.0% peak78,350.5 · 13.1% peak78,350.5 · 13.1% peak10,839.4 · 1.8% peak10,839.4 · 1.8% peak78,736.1 · 13.2% peak78,736.1 · 13.2% peak66,627 · 11.1% peak66,627 · 11.1% peak77,148.5 · 12.9% peak77,148.5 · 12.9% peak24,785.3 · 4.1% peak24,785.3 · 4.1% peak251,802.2 · 42.1% peak251,802.2 · 42.1% peak104,647.2 · 17.5% peak104,647.2 · 17.5% peak118,951.3 · 19.9% peak118,951.3 · 19.9% peak44,248.9 · 7.4% peak44,248.9 · 7.4% peak7,108.4 · 1.2% peak7,108.4 · 1.2% peak26,717 · 4.5% peak26,717 · 4.5% peak3,432.6 · 0.6% peak3,432.6 · 0.6% peak26,843.5 · 4.5% peak26,843.5 · 4.5% peak13,886 · 2.3% peak13,886 · 2.3% peak7,509.6 · 1.3% peak7,509.6 · 1.3% peak218,662.2 · 36.5% peak218,662.2 · 36.5% peak9,744.3 · 1.6% peak9,744.3 · 1.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2587674 · peak 598616 · CV 1.36

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0041 · skew=-0.90 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.16 (mesokurtic)75420 2-99.75bpbin -99.75bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -99.75bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-85.96bp 1-72.17bpbin -72.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -72.17bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-58.38bp 1-44.59bpbin -44.59bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -44.59bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 3-30.80bpbin -30.80bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -30.80bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak-17.01bp 7-3.23bpbin -3.23bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -3.23bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak10.56bp 724.35bpbin 24.35bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 24.35bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 138.14bpbin 38.14bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 38.14bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 251.93bpbin 51.93bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 51.93bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.91 · kurt=0.35 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0102
Mid price
$0.0102
24h change
-2.76%
Mark–mid spread
9.80 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0105

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.72)
μ MEAN0.0103$95% CI: [0.0103$, 0.0103$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.04%
med MEDIAN0.0103$Q₁ 0.0102$ · Q₃ 0.0104$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0003$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0102$Q₁ 0.0102$med 0.0103$Q₃ 0.0104$max 0.0105$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.248approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.724platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.43
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.90
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.99
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.060888%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.139
σᵣ STD / h0.438718%σ²ᵣ = 0.192×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.21×
σ ANNUALISED41.06%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.439%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.99negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-9.30downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.97left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.74mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.72
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-533.38%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.01%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.014%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.064%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.061%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.96%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.014%VaR₉₉−1.064%ES₉₅−1.061%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK1.05$
−2.96% drawdown over 7h
1.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.05% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
40.1 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.282 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0105
Bollinger MA
$0.0103
Bollinger lower
$0.0101

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.144within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.065lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.939strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.451significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.939
H = 0.939STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.144k=2-0.065k=3+0.030k=4+0.051k=5-0.1450+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.45)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.45)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$25.48k
Open interest (USD)
$153.71k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.59% · worst -1.07% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BEARISH -1.46%BEST+0.59%05hWORST-1.07%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.46%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.39%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.38%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.46%+1.34%-1.66%0.58% · 13h0.58% · 13h0.58%13h0.19% · 14h0.19% · 14h0.19%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h0.19% · 16h0.19% · 16h0.19%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.19% · 19h0.19% · 19h0.19%19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.38% · 21h0.38% · 21h0.38%21h-1.06% · 22h-1.06% · 22h-1.06%22h-1.07% · 23h-1.07% · 23h-1.07%23h▼ WORST-0.49% · 00h-0.49% · 00h-0.49%00h0.20% · 01h0.20% · 01h0.20%01h-0.29% · 02h-0.29% · 02h-0.29%02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h-0.29% · 04h-0.29% · 04h-0.29%04h0.59% · 05h0.59% · 05h0.59%05h★ BEST0.20% · 06h0.20% · 06h0.20%06h-0.29% · 07h-0.29% · 07h-0.29%07h0.20% · 08h0.20% · 08h0.20%08h0.29% · 09h0.29% · 09h0.29%09h-0.78% · 10h-0.78% · 10h-0.78%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.38%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 38% down · 21% flat
10 up bars · 9 down · best 0.59% · worst -1.07% · typical |Δ| 0.311%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.47%)FINAL-1.47%MAX DD-2.97%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.35%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9853 · peak 1.0135 · range [0.9834, 1.0135]1.01350.9834break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0135UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.97% · moderate0%-2.97%▼ TROUGH -2.97%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.97%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.10%bar 9-9 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.97%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 0.9853 (-1.47%) · max DD -2.97% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-8.36 · σ=43.69MIXED EDGELAST -23.43 (-0.34σ vs μ)80.0840.040.00-40.04-80.08μ = -8.3655.8955.8958.6658.6622.8322.8359.5559.55-18.00-18.00-40.61-40.61-53.61-53.61-53.44-53.44-59.50-59.50-80.08-80.08-69.51-69.51-11.55-11.5518.0618.06-4.26-4.2618.0918.0930.7330.736.266.26-14.97-14.97-23.43-23.43v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -23.431 · range [-80.08, 59.55] · μ -8.362 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=37.8701 · σ=15.0371 · range [11.9370, 59.0854] · R²=0.053▲ RISING +61.58%σ EXTREME 39.71%LAST 36.581759.085447.298335.511223.724111.9370μ = 37.8701max 59.0854min 11.9370dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 36.58% · range [11.94%, 59.09%] · μ 37.87% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.180 · σ=0.294CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.350 (-0.58σ vs μ)0.6260.3130.000-0.313-0.626μ = -0.1800.0400.040-0.626-0.626-0.583-0.583-0.507-0.507-0.337-0.3370.2180.2180.2130.2130.1010.1010.0020.0020.3900.3900.0760.076-0.445-0.445-0.211-0.211-0.168-0.168-0.334-0.334-0.343-0.343-0.154-0.154-0.394-0.394-0.350-0.350v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.350 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.2944
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1168
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.4826
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9146
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7373
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8309
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7227
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4698
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6931
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0142
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.4784
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6324
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.146 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.00e-5 · top T=4.00h (21.6%) · top-3 cover 52.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.2e-53.9e-52.6e-51.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.67e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.64e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.64e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.00e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.00e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.09e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.09e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.19e-5 · 21.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.19e-5 · 21.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.09e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.09e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.54e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.54e-6 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.31e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.31e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.87e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.87e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.78e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.78e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.77e-5 · 15.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.77e-5 · 15.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 21.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.402e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -6.21× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-6.21×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -7.74400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.003
annualized -7.74
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -309% · APY -96% · Sharpe -4.38σ ann 71% · Sortino -1.32 · n 4999
-525%-403%-281%-159%-37%85%-308.9%APR (simple)-96.4%APY (compound)70.6%Ann. vol σ-437.8%Sharpe (ann)-131.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0100.0100.0100.0100.0110.011t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
92552018392acfe8ca094d5caff16a52f2e44574ec3021434798f93de1b2f82a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$21.89K
bid $9.71K · ask $12.18K
Mid price
0.010195
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
29.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.053
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.087
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-usual/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01021014.71bp0.0102101FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01022226.60bp0.0102404FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.010379180.53bp0.01140020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.01018014.71bp0.0101801FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01016331.21bp0.0101405FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.009942248.16bp0.00475015PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-usual/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.59M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-usual/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.306 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.30M
real volume
Sell weight
$690.26K
real volume
Net delta
$608.54K
buyers net
Imbalance
30.59%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
30.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-usual/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.67% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.010480→0.0102002.672%5
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.010270→0.0101900.779%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.010230→0.0101700.587%1

/api/asset/hl-usual/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.55%
σ per bar = 0.000308
Mean return (annualised)
-308.89%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-4.38
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.65%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1106 bars

/api/asset/hl-usual/risk · same metrics, JSON