HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TRB

TRB-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-trb · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.20%
realized vol (ann.)
35.36%
max drawdown
0.63%
sharpe
2.21
ulcer index
0.25%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.21%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
312.69
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.52%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
149.23
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.20%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-trb/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH314ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$13.443
24h Δ · live
0.20%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
TRB · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=13.4420 · σ=0.0504 · range [13.3550, 13.5760] · R²=0.084▲ RISING +0.21%σ LOW 0.37%LAST 13.443013.576013.520713.465513.410313.3550μ = 13.4420max 13.5760min 13.3550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $13.44
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=3,831 · μ=153.2 · σ=202.0 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1402525037551,006μ = 1531,006.0750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1006 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
314ms
$mark $
$13.443
$mid $
$13.4395
◉prev-day close
$13.416
Δ24h Δ %
+0.201%
$24h vol $
$50.67k
◐open interest $
$435.66k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=13.4420 · σ=0.0504 · range [13.3550, 13.5760] · R²=0.084▲ RISING +0.21%σ LOW 0.37%LAST 13.443013.576013.520713.465513.410313.3550μ = 13.4420max 13.5760min 13.3550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $13.4430 · 24h 0.20% · range $[13.3550, 13.5760]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [13.3440, 13.6800] · σ=0.0504 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=40%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 13.4430 vs OPEN 13.4540 (-0.08%)&#9660; CLOSE 13.443013.680013.596013.512013.428013.3440μ close = 13.4420O13.454 H13.454 L13.382 C13.415 (-0.29%)O13.454 H13.454 L13.382 C13.415 (-0.29%)O13.394 H13.431 L13.355 C13.355 (-0.29%)O13.394 H13.431 L13.355 C13.355 (-0.29%)O13.382 H13.415 L13.355 C13.386 (+0.03%)O13.382 H13.415 L13.355 C13.386 (+0.03%)O13.404 H13.497 L13.399 C13.464 (+0.45%)O13.404 H13.497 L13.399 C13.464 (+0.45%)O13.436 H13.486 L13.371 C13.404 (-0.24%)O13.436 H13.486 L13.371 C13.404 (-0.24%)O13.413 H13.462 L13.395 C13.414 (+0.01%)O13.413 H13.462 L13.395 C13.414 (+0.01%)O13.403 H13.435 L13.356 C13.359 (-0.33%)O13.403 H13.435 L13.356 C13.359 (-0.33%)O13.376 H13.468 L13.344 C13.424 (+0.36%)O13.376 H13.468 L13.344 C13.424 (+0.36%)O13.443 H13.466 L13.412 C13.427 (-0.12%)O13.443 H13.466 L13.412 C13.427 (-0.12%)O13.436 H13.547 L13.386 C13.499 (+0.47%)O13.436 H13.547 L13.386 C13.499 (+0.47%)O13.495 H13.521 L13.451 C13.451 (-0.33%)O13.495 H13.521 L13.451 C13.451 (-0.33%)O13.442 H13.468 L13.422 C13.451 (+0.07%)O13.442 H13.468 L13.422 C13.451 (+0.07%)O13.421 H13.504 L13.414 C13.488 (+0.50%)O13.421 H13.504 L13.414 C13.488 (+0.50%)O13.491 H13.680 L13.456 C13.576 (+0.63%)O13.491 H13.680 L13.456 C13.576 (+0.63%)O13.584 H13.602 L13.480 C13.493 (-0.67%)O13.584 H13.602 L13.480 C13.493 (-0.67%)O13.506 H13.577 L13.488 C13.546 (+0.30%)O13.506 H13.577 L13.488 C13.546 (+0.30%)-0.8%O13.534 H13.546 L13.429 C13.431 (-0.76%)O13.534 H13.546 L13.429 C13.431 (-0.76%)O13.427 H13.447 L13.370 C13.447 (+0.15%)O13.427 H13.447 L13.370 C13.447 (+0.15%)O13.449 H13.503 L13.403 C13.417 (-0.24%)O13.449 H13.503 L13.403 C13.417 (-0.24%)O13.407 H13.427 L13.387 C13.405 (-0.01%)O13.407 H13.427 L13.387 C13.405 (-0.01%)O13.391 H13.493 L13.381 C13.443 (+0.39%)O13.391 H13.493 L13.381 C13.443 (+0.39%)O13.431 H13.457 L13.359 C13.448 (+0.13%)O13.431 H13.457 L13.359 C13.448 (+0.13%)O13.447 H13.464 L13.424 C13.426 (-0.16%)O13.447 H13.464 L13.424 C13.426 (-0.16%)O13.411 H13.470 L13.391 C13.438 (+0.20%)O13.411 H13.470 L13.391 C13.438 (+0.20%)O13.450 H13.450 L13.422 C13.443 (-0.05%)O13.450 H13.450 L13.422 C13.443 (-0.05%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=3,831 · μ=153.2 · σ=202.0 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1402525037551,006μ = 153244.16 · 24.3% peak244.16 · 24.3% peak136.3 · 13.5% peak136.3 · 13.5% peak49.17 · 4.9% peak49.17 · 4.9% peak83.42 · 8.3% peak83.42 · 8.3% peak201.79 · 20.1% peak201.79 · 20.1% peak124.9 · 12.4% peak124.9 · 12.4% peak47.58 · 4.7% peak47.58 · 4.7% peak56.88 · 5.7% peak56.88 · 5.7% peak65.41 · 6.5% peak65.41 · 6.5% peak73.33 · 7.3% peak73.33 · 7.3% peak157.78 · 15.7% peak157.78 · 15.7% peak55.1 · 5.5% peak55.1 · 5.5% peak458.08 · 45.5% peak458.08 · 45.5% peak1,006.071,006.07 · 100.0% peak1,006.07 · 100.0% peak243.77 · 24.2% peak243.77 · 24.2% peak78.02 · 7.8% peak78.02 · 7.8% peak71.9 · 7.1% peak71.9 · 7.1% peak88.01 · 8.7% peak88.01 · 8.7% peak95.66 · 9.5% peak95.66 · 9.5% peak47.43 · 4.7% peak47.43 · 4.7% peak95.64 · 9.5% peak95.64 · 9.5% peak226.31 · 22.5% peak226.31 · 22.5% peak42.37 · 4.2% peak42.37 · 4.2% peak70.45 · 7.0% peak70.45 · 7.0% peak11.06 · 1.1% peak11.06 · 1.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 3831 · peak 1006 · CV 1.32

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0038 · skew=-0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.69 (mesokurtic)54310 1-79.00bpbin -79.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -79.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-66.47bpbin -66.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -66.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-53.95bp 4-41.42bpbin -41.42bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -41.42bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak-28.90bp 2-16.38bpbin -16.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -16.38bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-3.85bpbin -3.85bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -3.85bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 58.67bpbin 8.67bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 8.67bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 121.20bpbin 21.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 21.20bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 333.72bpbin 33.72bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 33.72bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 146.25bpbin 46.25bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 46.25bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 358.77bpbin 58.77bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 58.77bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.29 · kurt=-0.58 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$13.443
Mid price
$13.4395
24h change
+0.20%
Mark–mid spread
2.60 bps
Prev-day close
$13.416

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.74)
μ MEAN13.4420$95% CI: [13.4222$, 13.4618$]
σ STD DEV0.0504$σ² = 25.389×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.37%
med MEDIAN13.4380$Q₁ 13.4150$ · Q₃ 13.4510$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.2210$ · IQR 0.0360$ (1.349σ→0.0680$)
min 13.3550$Q₁ 13.4150$med 13.4380$Q₃ 13.4510$max 13.5760$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.743right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.610mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.89
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.39
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.07
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.008688%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.022
σᵣ STD / h0.393318%σ²ᵣ = 0.155×10⁻⁴ · CV = 45.27×
σ ANNUALISED36.81%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.393%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.07excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.78good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)60.42exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.31approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.42mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 0.86
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 60.42
EXPECTED EDGE+76.10%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.59%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.589%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.798%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.733%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.26%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.589%VaR₉₉−0.798%ES₉₅−0.733%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK1357.60$
−1.26% drawdown over 6h
1340.50$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.36× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.28% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.458 · within band
Bollinger upper
$13.5495
Bollinger MA
$13.4513
Bollinger lower
$13.3531

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.450negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.214lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.726strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.454fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.726
H = 0.726STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.450k=2+0.214k=3-0.331k=4+0.182k=5-0.0830+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.45)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.45 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.90very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.45)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$50.67k
Open interest (USD)
$435.66k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.12x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
5.616× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
2.808× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.404×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.65% · worst -0.85% · typical |Δ| 0.31%MILD BULLISH +0.21%BEST+0.65%01hWORST-0.85%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.21%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.34%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.65%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.21%+1.19%-0.45%-0.45% · 13h-0.45% · 13h-0.45%13h0.23% · 14h0.23% · 14h0.23%14h0.58% · 15h0.58% · 15h0.58%15h-0.45% · 16h-0.45% · 16h-0.45%16h0.07% · 17h0.07% · 17h0.07%17h-0.41% · 18h-0.41% · 18h-0.41%18h0.49% · 19h0.49% · 19h0.49%19h0.02% · 20h0.02% · 20h0.02%20h0.53% · 21h0.53% · 21h0.53%21h-0.36% · 22h-0.36% · 22h-0.36%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.27% · 00h0.27% · 00h0.27%00h0.65% · 01h0.65% · 01h0.65%01h★ BEST-0.61% · 02h-0.61% · 02h-0.61%02h0.39% · 03h0.39% · 03h0.39%03h-0.85% · 04h-0.85% · 04h-0.85%04h▼ WORST0.12% · 05h0.12% · 05h0.12%05h-0.22% · 06h-0.22% · 06h-0.22%06h-0.09% · 07h-0.09% · 07h-0.09%07h0.28% · 08h0.28% · 08h0.28%08h0.04% · 09h0.04% · 09h0.04%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h0.09% · 11h0.09% · 11h0.09%11h0.04% · 12h0.04% · 12h0.04%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.65%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 38% down · 4% flat
14 up bars · 9 down · best 0.65% · worst -0.85% · typical |Δ| 0.309%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.19%FINAL+0.19%MAX DD-1.27%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.19%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0019 · peak 1.0119 · range [0.9955, 1.0119]1.01190.9955break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0119UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.27% · moderate0%-1.27%▼ TROUGH -1.27%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.27%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.78%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.45%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.27%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0019 (0.19%) · max DD -1.27% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=3.90 · σ=22.09MIXED EDGELAST 19.54 (+0.71σ vs μ)46.9223.460.00-23.46-46.92μ = 3.90-15.07-15.0718.3818.3811.0511.059.639.6313.6313.6310.7110.7144.3844.3846.9246.9215.3115.3111.3811.38-3.92-3.92-0.78-0.78-14.13-14.13-42.93-42.93-12.89-12.89-28.45-28.45-3.06-3.06-5.61-5.6119.5419.54v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 19.539 · range [-42.93, 46.92] · μ 3.900 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=38.5252 · σ=11.7965 · range [14.4662, 55.6720] · R²=0.129▼ FALLING -64.30%σ EXTREME 30.62%LAST 14.466255.672045.370635.069124.767614.4662μ = 38.5252max 55.6720min 14.4662dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 14.47% · range [14.47%, 55.67%] · μ 38.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.402 · σ=0.187MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.345 (+0.30σ vs μ)0.7980.3990.000-0.399-0.798μ = -0.402-0.285-0.285-0.395-0.395-0.536-0.536-0.282-0.282-0.546-0.546-0.498-0.498-0.395-0.395-0.172-0.172-0.372-0.372-0.425-0.425-0.444-0.444-0.508-0.508-0.703-0.703-0.798-0.798-0.531-0.531-0.160-0.160-0.153-0.153-0.086-0.086-0.345-0.345v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.345 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5545
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7579
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.2968
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0454
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.8595
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0501
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.8158
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0694
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2527
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2648
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4302
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1527
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.565 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.86e-5 · top T=2.00h (40.3%) · top-3 cover 59.4%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.0e-56.7e-54.5e-52.2e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.34e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.34e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.72e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.72e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.90e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.90e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.42e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.42e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.78e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.78e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.04e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.04e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.59e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.59e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.88e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.88e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.33e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.33e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.75e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.75e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.37e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.37e-5 · 10.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.98e-5 · 40.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.98e-5 · 40.3% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 40.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.228e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-54.20×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.79400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -19.79
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -826% · APY -100% · Sharpe -21.16σ ann 39% · Sortino -13.17 · n 4999
-2539%-2022%-1505%-988%-470%47%-826.1%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)39.0%Ann. vol σ-2116.1%Sharpe (ann)-1316.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
12.81413.07113.32813.58513.84114.098t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:46 UTC
Snapshot age
314ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
757d69e72a02723a54f438042f3b472e68e5be34fd09b1656385ecfdad9d722a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.05K
bid $863 · ask $3.19K
Depth within 10bp
$8.80K
bid $4.19K · ask $4.60K
Depth within 50bp
$39.42K
bid $30.07K · ask $9.35K
Mid price
13.439500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.376
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.034
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-trb/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K13.44383.23bp13.44503FILLED
BUY$10.00K13.468221.32bp13.516012FILLED
BUY$100.00K13.505549.12bp13.610020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K13.43463.61bp13.43203FILLED
SELL$10.00K13.415517.83bp13.393011FILLED
SELL$100.00K13.384940.66bp13.306020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-trb/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$13.0000–$14.0000★25$3.83K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-trb/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.387 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.49K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.10K
real volume
Net delta
$1.39K
buyers net
Imbalance
38.68%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
38.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-trb/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.17% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h13.5760→13.41701.171%3
#22026-06-13 18:00:00Z0ms13.4640→13.35900.780%1
#32026-06-14 02:00:00Z0ms13.5760→13.49300.611%1

/api/asset/hl-trb/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
39.04%
σ per bar = 0.000170
Mean return (annualised)
-826.09%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-21.16
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.64%
peak 13.56 → trough 13.34 over 803 bars

/api/asset/hl-trb/risk · same metrics, JSON