HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TON

TON-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ton · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.65%
realized vol (ann.)
93.80%
max drawdown
1.89%
sharpe
15.94
ulcer index
0.88%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1697.52
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.68%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
889.03
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
1.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.65%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-261.76%
signalLONGconfidence 48%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +1.65%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 32.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ton/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.728
24h Δ · live
1.65%
24h vol · live
$11.7M
TON · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.7227 · σ=0.0154 · range [1.6992, 1.7522] · R²=0.049▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 1.72801.75221.73891.72571.71251.6992μ = 1.7227max 1.7522min 1.6992dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.73
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.9%Short fee 50.1%SHORT FEE50.1%
Σ = 0.1%
Σ-sides total = 0.06% (99.94pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.029881% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,149,705 · μ=285988.2 · σ=248065.1 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110221,095442,189663,284884,378μ = 285988884,37850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 884378 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.5s
$mark $
$1.7279
$mid $
$1.7276
◉prev-day close
$1.6999
Δ24h Δ %
+1.647%
$24h vol $
$11.68M
◐open interest $
$39.93M
%funding (1h)
-0.029881%
%funding (yr)
-261.76%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.7227 · σ=0.0154 · range [1.6992, 1.7522] · R²=0.049▲ RISING +1.69%σ LOW 0.90%LAST 1.72801.75221.73891.72571.71251.6992μ = 1.7227max 1.7522min 1.6992dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.7279 · 24h 1.65% · range $[1.6992, 1.7522]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [1.6890, 1.7644] · σ=0.0154 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +1.28%CLOSE 1.7280 vs OPEN 1.7062 (+1.28%)&#9650; CLOSE 1.72801.76441.74551.72671.70791.6890μ close = 1.7227O1.706 H1.706 L1.690 C1.699 (-0.41%)O1.706 H1.706 L1.690 C1.699 (-0.41%)O1.700 H1.716 L1.695 C1.708 (+0.50%)O1.700 H1.716 L1.695 C1.708 (+0.50%)O1.708 H1.719 L1.704 C1.713 (+0.28%)O1.708 H1.719 L1.704 C1.713 (+0.28%)2.3%O1.713 H1.753 L1.711 C1.752 (+2.29%)O1.713 H1.753 L1.711 C1.752 (+2.29%)O1.752 H1.753 L1.729 C1.732 (-1.20%)O1.752 H1.753 L1.729 C1.732 (-1.20%)O1.732 H1.746 L1.715 C1.745 (+0.72%)O1.732 H1.746 L1.715 C1.745 (+0.72%)O1.744 H1.758 L1.739 C1.744 (-0.01%)O1.744 H1.758 L1.739 C1.744 (-0.01%)O1.744 H1.764 L1.732 C1.747 (+0.14%)O1.744 H1.764 L1.732 C1.747 (+0.14%)O1.747 H1.747 L1.736 C1.738 (-0.53%)O1.747 H1.747 L1.736 C1.738 (-0.53%)O1.738 H1.758 L1.738 C1.740 (+0.13%)O1.738 H1.758 L1.738 C1.740 (+0.13%)O1.740 H1.742 L1.717 C1.720 (-1.16%)O1.740 H1.742 L1.717 C1.720 (-1.16%)O1.720 H1.726 L1.713 C1.724 (+0.28%)O1.720 H1.726 L1.713 C1.724 (+0.28%)O1.724 H1.735 L1.717 C1.717 (-0.41%)O1.724 H1.735 L1.717 C1.717 (-0.41%)O1.718 H1.727 L1.696 C1.716 (-0.12%)O1.718 H1.727 L1.696 C1.716 (-0.12%)O1.715 H1.717 L1.704 C1.708 (-0.38%)O1.715 H1.717 L1.704 C1.708 (-0.38%)O1.708 H1.712 L1.702 C1.709 (+0.05%)O1.708 H1.712 L1.702 C1.709 (+0.05%)O1.709 H1.710 L1.695 C1.700 (-0.52%)O1.709 H1.710 L1.695 C1.700 (-0.52%)O1.696 H1.702 L1.689 C1.702 (+0.34%)O1.696 H1.702 L1.689 C1.702 (+0.34%)O1.702 H1.723 L1.698 C1.710 (+0.46%)O1.702 H1.723 L1.698 C1.710 (+0.46%)O1.710 H1.735 L1.710 C1.732 (+1.28%)O1.710 H1.735 L1.710 C1.732 (+1.28%)O1.730 H1.732 L1.715 C1.720 (-0.59%)O1.730 H1.732 L1.715 C1.720 (-0.59%)O1.719 H1.728 L1.707 C1.724 (+0.33%)O1.719 H1.728 L1.707 C1.724 (+0.33%)O1.724 H1.746 L1.724 C1.729 (+0.31%)O1.724 H1.746 L1.724 C1.729 (+0.31%)O1.727 H1.729 L1.710 C1.711 (-0.90%)O1.727 H1.729 L1.710 C1.711 (-0.90%)O1.711 H1.730 L1.710 C1.728 (+0.97%)O1.711 H1.730 L1.710 C1.728 (+0.97%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,149,705 · μ=285988.2 · σ=248065.1 · CV=0.87BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=110221,095442,189663,284884,378μ = 285988453,088.2 · 51.2% peak453,088.2 · 51.2% peak106,945.3 · 12.1% peak106,945.3 · 12.1% peak115,649.6 · 13.1% peak115,649.6 · 13.1% peak884,378884,378 · 100.0% peak884,378 · 100.0% peak549,650 · 62.2% peak549,650 · 62.2% peak698,436.8 · 79.0% peak698,436.8 · 79.0% peak94,844.8 · 10.7% peak94,844.8 · 10.7% peak297,678.7 · 33.7% peak297,678.7 · 33.7% peak47,091.4 · 5.3% peak47,091.4 · 5.3% peak41,120.5 · 4.6% peak41,120.5 · 4.6% peak295,354.2 · 33.4% peak295,354.2 · 33.4% peak119,281.1 · 13.5% peak119,281.1 · 13.5% peak542,766.7 · 61.4% peak542,766.7 · 61.4% peak791,028.5 · 89.4% peak791,028.5 · 89.4% peak71,233.2 · 8.1% peak71,233.2 · 8.1% peak69,222.4 · 7.8% peak69,222.4 · 7.8% peak209,005 · 23.6% peak209,005 · 23.6% peak157,658.2 · 17.8% peak157,658.2 · 17.8% peak436,528.2 · 49.4% peak436,528.2 · 49.4% peak346,022.2 · 39.1% peak346,022.2 · 39.1% peak85,139.7 · 9.6% peak85,139.7 · 9.6% peak75,724.4 · 8.6% peak75,724.4 · 8.6% peak279,032.7 · 31.6% peak279,032.7 · 31.6% peak338,609.4 · 38.3% peak338,609.4 · 38.3% peak44,215.8 · 5.0% peak44,215.8 · 5.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7149705 · peak 884378 · CV 0.87

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0007 · σ=0.0074 · skew=0.62 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.61 (mesokurtic)65320 3-104.44bpbin -104.44bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -104.44bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-75.63bpbin -75.63bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -75.63bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-46.82bpbin -46.82bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -46.82bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 2-18.02bpbin -18.02bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -18.02bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 410.79bpbin 10.79bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 10.79bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 639.60bpbin 39.60bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 39.60bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 168.40bpbin 68.40bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 68.40bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 197.21bpbin 97.21bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 97.21bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1126.02bpbin 126.02bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 126.02bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak154.83bp183.63bp 1212.44bpbin 212.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 212.44bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.67 · kurt=0.97 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.7279
Mid price
$1.7276
24h change
+1.65%
Mark–mid spread
1.74 bps
Prev-day close
$1.6999

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.15)
μ MEAN1.7227$95% CI: [1.7167$, 1.7288$]
σ STD DEV0.0154$σ² = 2.387×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.90%
med MEDIAN1.7197$Q₁ 1.7098$ · Q₃ 1.7315$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0530$ · IQR 0.0217$ (1.349σ→0.0208$)
min 1.6992$Q₁ 1.7098$med 1.7197$Q₃ 1.7315$max 1.7522$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.255approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.152platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.96
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.43
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=8.35
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.070030%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.089
σᵣ STD / h0.784664%σ²ᵣ = 0.616×10⁻⁴ · CV = 11.20×
σ ANNUALISED73.44%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.785%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)8.35excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)9.10strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.72right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.51leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+613.46%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.14%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.139%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.182%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.175%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.99%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.139%VaR₉₉−1.182%ES₉₅−1.175%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK175.22$
−2.99% drawdown over 13h
169.98$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.08% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
57.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.584 · within band
Bollinger upper
$1.7519
Bollinger MA
$1.7232
Bollinger lower
$1.6945

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.371within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.286lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.976strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.088fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.976
H = 0.976STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.371k=2+0.286k=3-0.057k=4+0.070k=5-0.1730+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.09)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.09)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$11.68M
Open interest (USD)
$39.93M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.29x
1h funding
-0.029881%
Funding (annualised)
-261.76%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.27% · worst -1.19% · typical |Δ| 0.58%MILD BULLISH +1.68%BEST+2.27%15hWORST-1.19%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.58%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.68%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.41%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.36% · Σ +2.87%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.68%+3.07%0.00%0.53% · 13h0.53% · 13h0.53%13h0.27% · 14h0.27% · 14h0.27%14h2.27% · 15h2.27% · 15h2.27%15h★ BEST-1.19% · 16h-1.19% · 16h-1.19%16h▼ WORST0.77% · 17h0.77% · 17h0.77%17h-0.04% · 18h-0.04% · 18h-0.04%18h0.17% · 19h0.17% · 19h0.17%19h-0.53% · 20h-0.53% · 20h-0.53%20h0.12% · 21h0.12% · 21h0.12%21h-1.16% · 22h-1.16% · 22h-1.16%22h0.28% · 23h0.28% · 23h0.28%23h-0.41% · 00h-0.41% · 00h-0.41%00h-0.11% · 01h-0.11% · 01h-0.11%01h-0.41% · 02h-0.41% · 02h-0.41%02h0.05% · 03h0.05% · 03h0.05%03h-0.55% · 04h-0.55% · 04h-0.55%04h0.15% · 05h0.15% · 05h0.15%05h0.44% · 06h0.44% · 06h0.44%06h1.26% · 07h1.26% · 07h1.26%07h-0.68% · 08h-0.68% · 08h-0.68%08h0.27% · 09h0.27% · 09h0.27%09h0.25% · 10h0.25% · 10h0.25%10h-1.01% · 11h-1.01% · 11h-1.01%11h0.97% · 12h0.97% · 12h0.97%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.87%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 2.27% · worst -1.19% · typical |Δ| 0.579%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.62%FINAL+1.62%MAX DD-3.01%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.09%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0162 · peak 1.0309 · range [0.9999, 1.0309]1.03090.9999break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0309UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.01% · moderate0%-3.01%▼ TROUGH -3.01%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.01%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.01%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0162 (1.62%) · max DD -3.01% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-10.79 · σ=36.99MIXED EDGELAST 18.55 (+0.79σ vs μ)71.2335.610.00-35.61-71.23μ = -10.7936.0536.0530.8730.8718.8918.89-16.57-16.57-16.16-16.16-33.10-33.10-43.63-43.63-54.61-54.61-51.99-51.99-55.14-55.14-56.70-56.70-71.23-71.23-18.86-18.8622.1422.1414.5214.5219.4519.4542.4142.4110.1410.1418.5518.55v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 18.546 · range [-71.23, 42.41] · μ -10.789 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=63.0279 · σ=24.5710 · range [26.5581, 111.5661] · R²=0.113▼ FALLING -21.09%σ EXTREME 38.98%LAST 83.3553111.566190.314169.062147.810126.5581μ = 63.0279max 111.5661min 26.5581dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 83.36% · range [26.56%, 111.57%] · μ 63.03% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.453 · σ=0.261MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.514 (-0.23σ vs μ)0.7680.3840.000-0.384-0.768μ = -0.453-0.626-0.626-0.600-0.600-0.523-0.523-0.477-0.477-0.168-0.168-0.608-0.608-0.737-0.737-0.768-0.768-0.734-0.734-0.515-0.515-0.544-0.544-0.755-0.755-0.116-0.1160.2130.213-0.201-0.201-0.279-0.279-0.415-0.415-0.234-0.234-0.514-0.514v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.514 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.3435
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1140
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.2886
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1988
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6114
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0929
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.8629
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0625
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1954
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3648
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9222
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3564
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.719 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.95e-5 · top T=2.00h (30.3%) · top-3 cover 62.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.5e-41.9e-41.3e-46.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.74e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.74e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.09e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.11e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.41e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.41e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.53e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.53e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.96e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.86e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.86e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.03e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.03e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-4 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.55e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.55e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.88e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.88e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.53e-4 · 30.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.53e-4 · 30.3% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 30.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.343e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.002%/barparametric μ/σ² 20.57× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
20.57×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 19.27400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.008
annualized 19.27
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.10%
VaR 95%5%
0.14%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.26%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 15.95σ ann 78% · Sortino 11.61 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%383%766%1148%1531%1914%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)77.5%Ann. vol σ1595.1%Sharpe (ann)1160.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.6231.6611.7001.7391.7771.816t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
3.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
13a69f5e1131f3b38c24b55bb68ae4e24e211fdc413fa0ce54075a9a31ec794d · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$93
bid $93 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.26K
bid $1.95K · ask $1.30K
Depth within 10bp
$30.71K
bid $23.09K · ask $7.62K
Depth within 50bp
$96.87K
bid $68.68K · ask $28.19K
Mid price
1.727850
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.419
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.655
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ton/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.72853.50bp1.72864FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.72949.10bp1.730214FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.730213.78bp1.731120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.72751.82bp1.72733FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.72695.36bp1.72676FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.725513.84bp1.724020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.988e-4
-0.02988% / hr
Annualised APR
-261.936%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
1.4d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
1.4d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE261.936%1.4d13.9d
SHORTPAY-261.936%1.4d13.9d

/api/asset/hl-ton/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$7.15M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ton/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.097 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.67M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.02M
real volume
Net delta
$647.17K
buyers net
Imbalance
9.66%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ton/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.21% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h1.7470→1.70842.210%5
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z0ms1.7522→1.73151.181%1
#32026-06-14 11:00:00Z0ms1.7288→1.71141.006%1

/api/asset/hl-ton/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
77.54%
σ per bar = 0.000338
Mean return (annualised)
1236.83%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.95
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.89%
peak 1.74 → trough 1.71 over 622 bars

/api/asset/hl-ton/risk · same metrics, JSON