HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TNSR

TNSR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-tnsr · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.32%
realized vol (ann.)
49.46%
max drawdown
1.02%
sharpe
-14.57
ulcer index
0.55%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.46%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1301.12
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-764.53
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.32%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.32%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-tnsr/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.029
24h Δ · live
-1.32%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
TNSR · live 24h price
n=22 · μ=0.0295 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0290, 0.0298] · R²=0.594▼ FALLING -1.76%σ LOW 0.64%LAST 0.02900.02980.02960.02940.02920.0290μ = 0.0295max 0.0298min 0.0290dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
22 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=22 · Σ=497,125 · μ=22596.6 · σ=67272.7 · CV=2.98BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=17077,999155,997233,996311,994μ = 22597311,99450%h1h4h7h10h13h16h19h22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 311994 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
$mark $
$0.0291
$mid $
$0.0291
◉prev-day close
$0.0295
Δ24h Δ %
-1.321%
$24h vol $
$14.64k
◐open interest $
$71.32k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=22 · μ=0.0295 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0290, 0.0298] · R²=0.594▼ FALLING -1.76%σ LOW 0.64%LAST 0.02900.02980.02960.02940.02920.0290μ = 0.0295max 0.0298min 0.0290dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0291 · 24h -1.32% · range $[0.0290, 0.0298]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=22 · up 19 · down 3 (86% up) · range [0.0290, 0.0298] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=28%BEARISH -1.63%CLOSE 0.0290 vs OPEN 0.0295 (-1.63%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.02900.02980.02960.02940.02920.0290μ close = 0.0295O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.44%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.44%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)0.9%O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.91%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.91%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.030 (+0.17%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.030 (+0.17%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.00%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (-0.20%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (-0.20%)O0.029 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.10%)O0.029 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.10%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (-0.47%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.029 C0.029 (-0.47%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (+0.00%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (-0.58%)O0.029 H0.029 L0.029 C0.029 (-0.58%)#1#4#7#10#13#16#19#22up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
22 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=22 · Σ=497,125 · μ=22596.6 · σ=67272.7 · CV=2.98BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=17077,999155,997233,996311,994μ = 225973,891.2 · 1.2% peak3,891.2 · 1.2% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak3,383.8 · 1.1% peak3,383.8 · 1.1% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak10,651.3 · 3.4% peak10,651.3 · 3.4% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak4,726.2 · 1.5% peak4,726.2 · 1.5% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak6,157 · 2.0% peak6,157 · 2.0% peak24,200.3 · 7.8% peak24,200.3 · 7.8% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak17,537 · 5.6% peak17,537 · 5.6% peak82,877.2 · 26.6% peak82,877.2 · 26.6% peak311,994311,994 · 100.0% peak311,994 · 100.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak583.3 · 0.2% peak583.3 · 0.2% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak31,123.6 · 10.0% peak31,123.6 · 10.0% peak50%#1#4#7#10#13#16#19#22#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 497125 · peak 311994 · CV 2.98

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=21 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0031 · skew=-0.76 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.01 (leptokurtic (fat tails))118630 1-91.36bpbin -91.36bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -91.36bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-78.44bp-65.52bp 2-52.60bpbin -52.60bp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -52.60bp · n=2 · 18.2% peak 1-39.68bpbin -39.68bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -39.68bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 1-26.76bpbin -26.76bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -26.76bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 1-13.84bpbin -13.84bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -13.84bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 11-0.92bpbin -0.92bp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin -0.92bp · n=11 · 100.0% peak 112.01bpbin 12.01bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 12.01bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 124.93bpbin 24.93bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 24.93bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 137.85bpbin 37.85bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 37.85bp · n=1 · 9.1% peak 150.77bpbin 50.77bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 50.77bp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=21 · positive 4 · negative 6
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=21 · skew=-0.72 · kurt=0.97 · near 12 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0291
Mid price
$0.0291
24h change
-1.32%
Mark–mid spread
3.43 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0295

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=22LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.78)
μ MEAN0.0295$95% CI: [0.0294$, 0.0296$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.64%
med MEDIAN0.0296$Q₁ 0.0294$ · Q₃ 0.0296$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0290$Q₁ 0.0294$med 0.0296$Q₃ 0.0296$max 0.0298$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.783left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.016mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.24
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.13
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.98
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-23.23
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.084514%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.248
σᵣ STD / h0.340467%σ²ᵣ = 0.116×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.03×
σ ANNUALISED31.87%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.340%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-23.23negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-13.96downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.78left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.60leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.60
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-740.34%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.58%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.584%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.899%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.781%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.52%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.584%VaR₉₉−0.899%ES₉₅−0.781%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK2.98$
−2.52% drawdown over 12h
2.90$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.34× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.54× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.58% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
25.7 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.095 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0299
Bollinger MA
$0.0295
Bollinger lower
$0.0291

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=21
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.165within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.172lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.722strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.409significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.722
H = 0.722STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.165k=2-0.172k=3+0.244k=4-0.149k=5+0.1980+1−1+0.44−0.44+ momentum (ρ > +0.44)− reversal (ρ < −0.44)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.41)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=21from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.61very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.41)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$14.64k
Open interest (USD)
$71.32k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.21x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=21 bars · best 0.57% · worst -0.98% · typical |Δ| 0.21%BEARISH SESSION -1.77%BEST+0.57%21hWORST-0.98%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.21%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.77%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.99%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.18%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.61%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.77%+0.78%-1.77%0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.41% · 14h0.41% · 14h0.41%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.57% · 21h0.57% · 21h0.57%21h★ BEST0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.98% · 23h-0.98% · 23h-0.98%23h▼ WORST0.20% · 00h0.20% · 00h0.20%00h0.00% · 01h0.00% · 01h·01h-0.30% · 02h-0.30% · 02h-0.30%02h0.10% · 03h0.10% · 03h0.10%03h-0.44% · 04h-0.44% · 04h-0.44%04h0.00% · 05h0.00% · 05h·05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h-0.55% · 07h-0.55% · 07h-0.55%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h-0.58% · 09h-0.58% · 09h-0.58%09hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.18%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 1BREADTH19% up · 29% down · 52% flat
4 up bars · 6 down · best 0.57% · worst -0.98% · typical |Δ| 0.207%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=22 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.77%)FINAL-1.77%MAX DD-2.53%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.78%UNDERWATER16/22 (73%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9823 · peak 1.0078 · range [0.9823, 1.0078]1.00780.9823break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0078UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.53% · moderate0%-2.53%▼ TROUGH -2.53%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.53%bar 12-22 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.20%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.53%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER73% of session · 16/22 bars
final equity 0.9823 (-1.77%) · max DD -2.53% · time-under-water 16/22 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=17 · +4 / −13 (24% positive) · μ=-23.60 · σ=35.82UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -68.29 (-1.25σ vs μ)68.2934.140.00-34.14-68.29μ = -23.6017.1117.1117.1117.11-41.86-41.86-41.86-41.8641.8641.8641.8641.86-13.59-13.59-6.61-6.61-6.61-6.61-43.65-43.65-38.39-38.39-30.15-30.15-52.04-52.04-52.04-52.04-56.34-56.34-67.72-67.72-68.29-68.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -68.290 · range [-68.29, 41.86] · μ -23.601 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=17 · μ=29.7260 · σ=14.5124 · range [8.4702, 53.7164] · R²=0.046▲ RISING +39.62%σ EXTREME 48.82%LAST 28.989553.716442.404831.093319.78178.4702μ = 29.7260max 53.7164min 8.4702dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.99% · range [8.47%, 53.72%] · μ 29.73% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=17 · +2 / −15 (12% positive) · μ=-0.294 · σ=0.242MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.455 (-0.66σ vs μ)0.8170.4080.000-0.408-0.817μ = -0.294-0.050-0.0500.0330.033-0.300-0.300-0.050-0.050-0.050-0.050-0.300-0.3000.0320.032-0.165-0.165-0.176-0.176-0.481-0.481-0.316-0.316-0.338-0.338-0.817-0.817-0.634-0.634-0.446-0.446-0.493-0.493-0.455-0.455v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.455 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.3727
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1123
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8248
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4385
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.2149
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9737
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5454
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1223
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6327
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0197
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8303
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4063
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.819 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=10 bins · noise floor μ=1.16e-5 · top T=2.63h (33.0%) · top-3 cover 64.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.8e-52.9e-51.9e-59.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 21.0 · power 8.34e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 21.0 · power 8.34e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 10.5 · power 9.26e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 10.5 · power 9.26e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 7.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 7.0 · power 1.02e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 5.3 · power 1.35e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 5.3 · power 1.35e-5 · 11.6% energyperiod 4.2 · power 8.56e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.2 · power 8.56e-6 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.5 · power 2.27e-5 · 19.6% energyperiod 3.5 · power 2.27e-5 · 19.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.74e-6 · 7.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.74e-6 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.6 · power 3.83e-5 · 33.0% energyperiod 2.6 · power 3.83e-5 · 33.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 2.93e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.3 · power 2.93e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.76e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 1.76e-6 · 1.5% energy50% by T=3.5h#1 dominantT=2.63h#2T=3.50h#3T=5.25hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.63h (freq 0.381) · concentrates 33.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.159e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-54.34×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.79400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.79
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.26σ ann 52% · Sortino -13.00 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3392%-2701%-2010%-1319%-628%62%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)52.0%Ann. vol σ-2826.4%Sharpe (ann)-1299.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0280.0280.0290.0300.0300.031t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:28 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
22 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3af48da57b106c2fbd86e85524ecf8f547abbffcd53c3624a6cb38c68bfda685 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$9.53K
bid $3.35K · ask $6.18K
Mid price
0.029140
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
27.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.223
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.380
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-tnsr/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.02918816.44bp0.0292002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.02925840.61bp0.0293108FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.029440102.99bp0.02977020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.02907422.67bp0.0290504FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.02898653.01bp0.02892011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.02889783.28bp0.02872020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-tnsr/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 22 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★22$497.12K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-tnsr/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.533 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
7 / 13
2 unclassified
Buy weight
$115.19K
real volume
Sell weight
$378.05K
real volume
Net delta
$262.86K
sellers net
Imbalance
-53.29%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
53.3%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 22-record window./api/asset/hl-tnsr/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.12% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 07:00:00Z2.0h0.029370→0.0290401.124%3
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z2.0h0.029790→0.0295000.973%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.029560→0.0293700.643%1

/api/asset/hl-tnsr/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
52.01%
σ per bar = 0.000227
Mean return (annualised)
-1470.04%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.26
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.93%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 4452 bars

/api/asset/hl-tnsr/risk · same metrics, JSON