HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SYRUP

SYRUP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-syrup · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.59%
realized vol (ann.)
46.99%
max drawdown
1.06%
sharpe
-6.29
ulcer index
0.56%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-525.32
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.97%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-306.38
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.59%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +1.59%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-syrup/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.133
24h Δ · live
1.59%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
SYRUP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1318 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.1298, 0.1352] · R²=0.538▲ RISING +1.58%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.13330.13520.13390.13250.13120.1298μ = 0.1318max 0.1352min 0.1298dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.13
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,716,030 · μ=68641.2 · σ=80232.2 · CV=1.17BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15090,881181,763272,644363,525μ = 68641363,52550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 363525 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.6s
$mark $
$0.1333
$mid $
$0.1333
◉prev-day close
$0.1312
Δ24h Δ %
+1.586%
$24h vol $
$225.28k
◐open interest $
$1.38M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1318 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.1298, 0.1352] · R²=0.538▲ RISING +1.58%σ NORMAL 1.13%LAST 0.13330.13520.13390.13250.13120.1298μ = 0.1318max 0.1352min 0.1298dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1333 · 24h 1.59% · range $[0.1298, 0.1352]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.1298, 0.1368] · σ=0.0015 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=47%BULLISH +1.59%CLOSE 0.1333 vs OPEN 0.1312 (+1.59%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.13330.13680.13500.13330.13150.1298μ close = 0.1318O0.131 H0.131 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.02%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.02%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.15%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.15%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (-0.08%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (-0.08%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.08%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.08%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.47%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.47%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.31%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.130 (-0.31%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.130 C0.130 (+0.02%)O0.130 H0.130 L0.130 C0.130 (+0.02%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.36%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.36%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.64%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.64%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.132 (+0.39%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.132 (+0.39%)O0.132 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.26%)O0.132 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.26%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.35%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (-0.35%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.20%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.20%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (-0.53%)O0.131 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (-0.53%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.57%)O0.130 H0.131 L0.130 C0.131 (+0.57%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.08%)O0.131 H0.132 L0.131 C0.131 (+0.08%)2.4%O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.134 (+2.39%)O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.134 (+2.39%)O0.134 H0.137 L0.132 C0.135 (+0.99%)O0.134 H0.137 L0.132 C0.135 (+0.99%)O0.135 H0.136 L0.133 C0.133 (-1.43%)O0.135 H0.136 L0.133 C0.133 (-1.43%)O0.133 H0.133 L0.131 C0.131 (-1.52%)O0.133 H0.133 L0.131 C0.131 (-1.52%)O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.133 (+1.62%)O0.131 H0.134 L0.131 C0.133 (+1.62%)O0.133 H0.134 L0.133 C0.133 (-0.40%)O0.133 H0.134 L0.133 C0.133 (-0.40%)O0.133 H0.134 L0.132 C0.134 (+0.71%)O0.133 H0.134 L0.132 C0.134 (+0.71%)O0.134 H0.134 L0.133 C0.133 (-0.38%)O0.134 H0.134 L0.133 C0.133 (-0.38%)O0.133 H0.133 L0.133 C0.133 (+0.11%)O0.133 H0.133 L0.133 C0.133 (+0.11%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,716,030 · μ=68641.2 · σ=80232.2 · CV=1.17BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=15090,881181,763272,644363,525μ = 6864126,835 · 7.4% peak26,835 · 7.4% peak48,694 · 13.4% peak48,694 · 13.4% peak25,988 · 7.1% peak25,988 · 7.1% peak23,670 · 6.5% peak23,670 · 6.5% peak33,036 · 9.1% peak33,036 · 9.1% peak28,120 · 7.7% peak28,120 · 7.7% peak61,146 · 16.8% peak61,146 · 16.8% peak38,651 · 10.6% peak38,651 · 10.6% peak95,674 · 26.3% peak95,674 · 26.3% peak34,165 · 9.4% peak34,165 · 9.4% peak22,232 · 6.1% peak22,232 · 6.1% peak19,974 · 5.5% peak19,974 · 5.5% peak35,781 · 9.8% peak35,781 · 9.8% peak363,525363,525 · 100.0% peak363,525 · 100.0% peak204,318 · 56.2% peak204,318 · 56.2% peak114,410 · 31.5% peak114,410 · 31.5% peak40,574 · 11.2% peak40,574 · 11.2% peak176,850 · 48.6% peak176,850 · 48.6% peak123,918 · 34.1% peak123,918 · 34.1% peak104,449 · 28.7% peak104,449 · 28.7% peak35,107 · 9.7% peak35,107 · 9.7% peak17,076 · 4.7% peak17,076 · 4.7% peak14,761 · 4.1% peak14,761 · 4.1% peak19,251 · 5.3% peak19,251 · 5.3% peak7,825 · 2.2% peak7,825 · 2.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1716030 · peak 363525 · CV 1.17

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0078 · skew=0.58 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.04 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 2-142.29bpbin -142.29bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -142.29bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-109.49bp-76.69bp 7-43.89bpbin -43.89bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -43.89bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 4-11.09bpbin -11.09bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -11.09bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 421.71bpbin 21.71bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 21.71bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 454.51bpbin 54.51bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 54.51bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 187.30bpbin 87.30bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 87.30bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak120.10bp 1152.90bpbin 152.90bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 152.90bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak185.70bp 1218.50bpbin 218.50bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 218.50bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.64 · kurt=1.48 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1333
Mid price
$0.1333
24h change
+1.59%
Mark–mid spread
1.88 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1312

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.68)
μ MEAN0.1318$95% CI: [0.1312$, 0.1324$]
σ STD DEV0.0015$σ² = 0.022×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.13%
med MEDIAN0.1313$Q₁ 0.1309$ · Q₃ 0.1333$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0054$ · IQR 0.0025$ (1.349σ→0.0020$)
min 0.1298$Q₁ 0.1309$med 0.1313$Q₃ 0.1333$max 0.1352$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.683right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.759mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.82
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.64
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=7.43
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.065197%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.079
σᵣ STD / h0.821777%σ²ᵣ = 0.675×10⁻⁴ · CV = 12.60×
σ ANNUALISED76.91%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.822%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)7.43excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)8.96strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.69right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.14leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.21
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+571.12%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.25%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.247%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.539%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.482%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.92%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.247%VaR₉₉−1.539%ES₉₅−1.482%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK13.52$
−2.92% drawdown over 2h
13.13$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.01% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.702 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1352
Bollinger MA
$0.1321
Bollinger lower
$0.1289

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.028within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.232lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.882strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.180significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.882
H = 0.882STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.028k=2-0.232k=3-0.373k=4+0.083k=5-0.0400+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.79very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$225.28k
Open interest (USD)
$1.38M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
9.654× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.827× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.414×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.35% · worst -1.59% · typical |Δ| 0.57%MILD BULLISH +1.56%BEST+2.35%04hWORST-1.59%07hTYPICAL |Δ|0.57%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.56%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.16% · Σ +1.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.08%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.56%+2.99%-1.10%-0.28% · 13h-0.28% · 13h-0.28%13h-0.08% · 14h-0.08% · 14h-0.08%14h0.07% · 15h0.07% · 15h0.07%15h-0.51% · 16h-0.51% · 16h-0.51%16h-0.30% · 17h-0.30% · 17h-0.30%17h0.03% · 18h0.03% · 18h0.03%18h0.50% · 19h0.50% · 19h0.50%19h0.65% · 20h0.65% · 20h0.65%20h0.32% · 21h0.32% · 21h0.32%21h-0.27% · 22h-0.27% · 22h-0.27%22h-0.34% · 23h-0.34% · 23h-0.34%23h0.15% · 00h0.15% · 00h0.15%00h-0.50% · 01h-0.50% · 01h-0.50%01h0.50% · 02h0.50% · 02h0.50%02h0.06% · 03h0.06% · 03h0.06%03h2.35% · 04h2.35% · 04h2.35%04h★ BEST0.63% · 05h0.63% · 05h0.63%05h-1.38% · 06h-1.38% · 06h-1.38%06h-1.59% · 07h-1.59% · 07h-1.59%07h▼ WORST1.57% · 08h1.57% · 08h1.57%08h-0.34% · 09h-0.34% · 09h-0.34%09h0.79% · 10h0.79% · 10h0.79%10h-0.40% · 11h-0.40% · 11h-0.40%11h-0.08% · 12h-0.08% · 12h-0.08%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.25%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.35% · worst -1.59% · typical |Δ| 0.570%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.50%FINAL+1.50%MAX DD-2.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 7 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.99%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0150 · peak 1.0299 · range [0.9891, 1.0299]1.02990.9891break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0299UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.94% · moderate0%-2.94%▼ TROUGH -2.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.94%bar 19-25 · 7 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.09%bar 2-8 · 7 bars · recovered#3 -0.95%bar 11-16 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 7 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0150 (1.50%) · max DD -2.94% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=8.36 · σ=28.36MIXED EDGELAST -0.65 (-0.32σ vs μ)74.5937.290.00-37.29-74.59μ = 8.36-74.59-74.59-12.82-12.8215.5215.5223.7123.7136.6136.6134.0634.0639.1039.100.540.54-5.33-5.33-16.69-16.6933.5233.5251.1851.1820.7120.716.166.1616.3616.3612.2512.25-3.76-3.76-17.07-17.07-0.65-0.65v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.646 · range [-74.59, 51.18] · μ 8.357 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=75.5603 · σ=44.9067 · range [20.8385, 148.9037] · R²=0.735▲ RISING +388.04%σ EXTREME 59.43%LAST 101.7009148.9037116.887484.871152.854820.8385μ = 75.5603max 148.9037min 20.8385dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.73μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 101.70% · range [20.84%, 148.90%] · μ 75.56% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=0.019 · σ=0.334CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.605 (-1.87σ vs μ)0.6050.3020.000-0.302-0.605μ = 0.019-0.209-0.2090.1390.1390.4670.4670.5530.5530.2480.2480.4250.4250.4870.4870.0870.087-0.486-0.486-0.396-0.396-0.078-0.078-0.049-0.049-0.066-0.0660.2660.2660.0300.030-0.009-0.009-0.258-0.258-0.184-0.184-0.605-0.605v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.605 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
6.4849
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0391
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.9471
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3109
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6919
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4420
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0163
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4462
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6554
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.864 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.08e-5 · top T=2.00h (17.1%) · top-3 cover 47.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.3e-53.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.89e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 14.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 14.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.10e-4 · 13.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.33e-4 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.20e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.20e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.18e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.18e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.59e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.59e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.90e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.90e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.78e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.78e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.88e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.88e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 17.1% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 17.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.493e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.002%/barparametric μ/σ² 22.40× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
22.40×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 24.70400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.011
annualized 24.70
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.11%
VaR 95%5%
0.13%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.24%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 18.88σ ann 84% · Sortino 13.93 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%453%906%1359%1812%2265%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)84.3%Ann. vol σ1887.7%Sharpe (ann)1393.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1260.1290.1320.1360.1390.142t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:40 UTC
Snapshot age
3.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5b9f86bc15709cfdb5ecdb5c8a6d5214d51374ad9b5243e45089f967c86941c1 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.62K
bid $2.38K · ask $2.24K
Depth within 10bp
$13.29K
bid $5.51K · ask $7.79K
Depth within 50bp
$128.25K
bid $53.94K · ask $74.31K
Mid price
0.133275
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.166
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.125
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-syrup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1333122.81bp0.1333403FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1333868.29bp0.13347010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.13364527.78bp0.13448020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1332491.98bp0.1332303FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1331668.21bp0.13311010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.13295224.26bp0.13262020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-syrup/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.72M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-syrup/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.036 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$875.11K
real volume
Sell weight
$814.09K
real volume
Net delta
$61.02K
buyers net
Imbalance
3.61%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
3.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-syrup/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.92% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z2.0h0.135240→0.1312902.921%3
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.130890→0.1298300.810%3
#32026-06-14 01:00:00Z0ms0.131440→0.1305400.685%1

/api/asset/hl-syrup/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
84.26%
σ per bar = 0.000367
Mean return (annualised)
1590.62%
μ per bar = 0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
18.88
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.46%
peak 0.14 → trough 0.13 over 1315 bars

/api/asset/hl-syrup/risk · same metrics, JSON