HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SUSHI

SUSHI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sushi · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.50%
realized vol (ann.)
42.16%
max drawdown
0.97%
sharpe
8.91
ulcer index
0.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
704.21
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.89%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
422.76
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.50%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 14.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sushi/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.175
24h Δ · live
-0.50%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
SUSHI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1751 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.1740, 0.1766] · R²=0.212▼ FALLING -0.59%σ LOW 0.41%LAST 0.17480.17660.17600.17530.17460.1740μ = 0.1751max 0.1766min 0.1740dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.17
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=558,698 · μ=22347.9 · σ=22493.5 · CV=1.01BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13023,66847,33671,00494,673μ = 2234894,672.650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 94673 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.9s
$mark $
$0.175
$mid $
$0.175
◉prev-day close
$0.1758
Δ24h Δ %
-0.500%
$24h vol $
$97.98k
◐open interest $
$160.32k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1751 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.1740, 0.1766] · R²=0.212▼ FALLING -0.59%σ LOW 0.41%LAST 0.17480.17660.17600.17530.17460.1740μ = 0.1751max 0.1766min 0.1740dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1749 · 24h -0.50% · range $[0.1740, 0.1766]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.1731, 0.1772] · σ=0.0007 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=35%BEARISH -0.50%CLOSE 0.1748 vs OPEN 0.1757 (-0.50%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.17480.17720.17620.17520.17420.1731μ close = 0.1751O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.09%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.09%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.14%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.14%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.03%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.03%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.43%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.43%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (-0.41%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (-0.41%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.77%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.77%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.14%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.14%)O0.174 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.48%)O0.174 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.48%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.14%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.14%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.174 C0.177 (+0.78%)O0.175 H0.177 L0.174 C0.177 (+0.78%)O0.177 H0.177 L0.176 C0.176 (-0.61%)O0.177 H0.177 L0.176 C0.176 (-0.61%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.31%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.31%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.01%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.01%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.07%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.07%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.32%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.175 C0.175 (-0.32%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.41%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.175 C0.176 (+0.41%)-1.0%O0.176 H0.176 L0.173 C0.174 (-1.01%)O0.176 H0.176 L0.173 C0.174 (-1.01%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.19%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.19%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.33%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.33%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (+0.04%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (+0.04%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.20%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.20%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.42%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.176 (+0.42%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.51%)O0.175 H0.176 L0.174 C0.174 (-0.51%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.10%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.10%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.05%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.174 C0.175 (-0.05%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=558,698 · μ=22347.9 · σ=22493.5 · CV=1.01BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13023,66847,33671,00494,673μ = 2234812,180.7 · 12.9% peak12,180.7 · 12.9% peak10,930.3 · 11.5% peak10,930.3 · 11.5% peak11,222.4 · 11.9% peak11,222.4 · 11.9% peak93,824.4 · 99.1% peak93,824.4 · 99.1% peak27,478.1 · 29.0% peak27,478.1 · 29.0% peak28,181.7 · 29.8% peak28,181.7 · 29.8% peak7,666.6 · 8.1% peak7,666.6 · 8.1% peak26,529.7 · 28.0% peak26,529.7 · 28.0% peak10,764 · 11.4% peak10,764 · 11.4% peak9,523.5 · 10.1% peak9,523.5 · 10.1% peak13,426 · 14.2% peak13,426 · 14.2% peak12,180.8 · 12.9% peak12,180.8 · 12.9% peak94,672.694,672.6 · 100.0% peak94,672.6 · 100.0% peak18,279.9 · 19.3% peak18,279.9 · 19.3% peak24,732.3 · 26.1% peak24,732.3 · 26.1% peak20,989.2 · 22.2% peak20,989.2 · 22.2% peak13,844 · 14.6% peak13,844 · 14.6% peak15,231 · 16.1% peak15,231 · 16.1% peak8,935 · 9.4% peak8,935 · 9.4% peak16,054.9 · 17.0% peak16,054.9 · 17.0% peak14,166.6 · 15.0% peak14,166.6 · 15.0% peak22,153.1 · 23.4% peak22,153.1 · 23.4% peak19,639.1 · 20.7% peak19,639.1 · 20.7% peak18,375.1 · 19.4% peak18,375.1 · 19.4% peak7,717.2 · 8.2% peak7,717.2 · 8.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 558698 · peak 94673 · CV 1.01

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0044 · skew=-0.18 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.36 (mesokurtic)54310 1-101.47bpbin -101.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -101.47bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-84.88bp 1-68.29bpbin -68.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -68.29bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-51.71bpbin -51.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -51.71bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-35.12bpbin -35.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -35.12bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-18.53bpbin -18.53bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -18.53bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-1.94bpbin -1.94bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -1.94bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 514.64bpbin 14.64bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 14.64bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 131.23bpbin 31.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 31.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 247.82bpbin 47.82bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 47.82bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 264.40bpbin 64.40bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 64.40bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 180.99bpbin 80.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 80.99bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.21 · kurt=-0.11 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.175
Mid price
$0.175
24h change
-0.50%
Mark–mid spread
4.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1758

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1751$95% CI: [0.1748$, 0.1754$]
σ STD DEV0.0007$σ² = 0.005×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.41%
med MEDIAN0.1752$Q₁ 0.1746$ · Q₃ 0.1756$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0027$ · IQR 0.0010$ (1.349σ→0.0010$)
min 0.1740$Q₁ 0.1746$med 0.1752$Q₃ 0.1756$max 0.1766$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.071approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.907mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.98
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.00
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.024480%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.053
σᵣ STD / h0.457989%σ²ᵣ = 0.210×10⁻⁴ · CV = 18.71×
σ ANNUALISED42.87%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.458%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.00negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-4.76downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.23approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.16mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-214.44%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.66%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.663%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.002%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.889%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.51%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.663%VaR₉₉−1.002%ES₉₅−0.889%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK17.66$
−1.51% drawdown over 7h
17.40$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.34× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.51× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.53% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.449 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1764
Bollinger MA
$0.1749
Bollinger lower
$0.1735

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.297within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.068lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.754strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.486significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.754
H = 0.754STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.297k=2-0.068k=3-0.156k=4-0.088k=5-0.0370+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.49)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.81very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.49)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$97.98k
Open interest (USD)
$160.32k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.61x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.89% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.36%MILD BEARISH -0.59%BEST+0.89%21hWORST-1.10%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.59%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.60%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.64%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.63%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.59%+0.45%-1.06%-0.34% · 13h-0.34% · 13h-0.34%13h0.13% · 14h0.13% · 14h0.13%14h0.40% · 15h0.40% · 15h0.40%15h-0.25% · 16h-0.25% · 16h-0.25%16h-0.57% · 17h-0.57% · 17h-0.57%17h-0.33% · 18h-0.33% · 18h-0.33%18h0.61% · 19h0.61% · 19h0.61%19h-0.08% · 20h-0.08% · 20h-0.08%20h0.89% · 21h0.89% · 21h0.89%21h★ BEST-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h-0.35% · 23h-0.35% · 23h-0.35%23h0.14% · 00h0.14% · 00h0.14%00h0.17% · 01h0.17% · 01h0.17%01h-0.24% · 02h-0.24% · 02h-0.24%02h0.40% · 03h0.40% · 03h0.40%03h-1.10% · 04h-1.10% · 04h-1.10%04h▼ WORST0.13% · 05h0.13% · 05h0.13%05h-0.07% · 06h-0.07% · 06h-0.07%06h-0.04% · 07h-0.04% · 07h-0.04%07h0.37% · 08h0.37% · 08h0.37%08h0.57% · 09h0.57% · 09h0.57%09h-0.68% · 10h-0.68% · 10h-0.68%10h0.16% · 11h0.16% · 11h0.16%11h0.04% · 12h0.04% · 12h0.04%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.64%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.89% · worst -1.10% · typical |Δ| 0.359%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.61%)FINAL-0.61%MAX DD-1.52%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.45%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9939 · peak 1.0045 · range [0.9892, 1.0045]1.00450.9892break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0045UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.52% · moderate0%-1.52%▼ TROUGH -1.52%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.52%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.15%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.34%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.52%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9939 (-0.61%) · max DD -1.52% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-5.06 · σ=16.58MIXED EDGELAST 15.22 (+1.22σ vs μ)42.6021.300.00-21.30-42.60μ = -5.06-42.60-42.60-0.58-0.58-7.65-7.657.367.36-0.72-0.725.195.1918.7718.777.067.062.072.07-17.95-17.95-28.10-28.10-14.26-14.26-20.81-20.81-27.91-27.91-8.59-8.59-3.83-3.839.969.9611.1511.1515.2215.22v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 15.215 · range [-42.60, 18.77] · μ -5.064 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=46.9323 · σ=6.9986 · range [33.2938, 57.9726] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +20.62%σ HIGH 14.91%LAST 40.157657.972651.802945.633239.463533.2938μ = 46.9323max 57.9726min 33.2938dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 40.16% · range [33.29%, 57.97%] · μ 46.93% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.250 · σ=0.243MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.353 (-0.42σ vs μ)0.6160.3080.000-0.308-0.616μ = -0.2500.2620.2620.0730.073-0.040-0.0400.0140.014-0.324-0.324-0.383-0.383-0.305-0.305-0.318-0.318-0.271-0.2710.0070.007-0.386-0.386-0.528-0.528-0.601-0.601-0.616-0.616-0.436-0.4360.0360.036-0.252-0.252-0.329-0.329-0.353-0.353v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.353 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2354
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8890
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5360
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6204
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.2329
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0195
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2105
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3895
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0817
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3252
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1851
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.597 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.39e-5 · top T=2.00h (31.5%) · top-3 cover 69.6%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)9.0e-56.8e-54.5e-52.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.60e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.60e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.08e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.08e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.54e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.54e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.30e-5 · 18.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.30e-5 · 18.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.26e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.26e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.68e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.68e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.14e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.14e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.62e-5 · 19.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.62e-5 · 19.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.42e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.42e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.14e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.14e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.18e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.18e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.00e-5 · 31.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.00e-5 · 31.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 31.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.862e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-22.07×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -15.58400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -15.58
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -504% · APY -99% · Sharpe -10.54σ ann 48% · Sortino -6.54 · n 4999
-1265%-1001%-736%-472%-207%57%-503.8%APR (simple)-99.4%APY (compound)47.8%Ann. vol σ-1054.4%Sharpe (ann)-654.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1660.1700.1730.1760.1800.183t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
3.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4a708051b3d7edaf8a318440152deae77320c6e0a81b9bec61b7419a6f3fc721 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.27K
bid $596 · ask $675
Depth within 10bp
$6.24K
bid $2.08K · ask $4.16K
Depth within 50bp
$43.73K
bid $27.11K · ask $16.62K
Mid price
0.174995
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.106
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.227
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sushi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1750613.75bp0.1751103FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.17520912.24bp0.17534011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.17556232.42bp0.17678020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1749184.42bp0.1748804FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.17478112.22bp0.17463011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.17454125.93bp0.17413020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-sushi/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$558.70K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sushi/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.291 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$352.68K
real volume
Sell weight
$193.83K
real volume
Net delta
$158.85K
buyers net
Imbalance
29.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
29.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sushi/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.15% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 17:00:00Z1.0h0.176150→0.1741301.147%2
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.175890→0.1739701.092%3
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z2.0h0.176630→0.1750500.895%3

/api/asset/hl-sushi/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
47.78%
σ per bar = 0.000208
Mean return (annualised)
-503.79%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.54
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.59%
peak 0.18 → trough 0.17 over 867 bars

/api/asset/hl-sushi/risk · same metrics, JSON