HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STX

STX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-stx · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.93%
realized vol (ann.)
95.49%
max drawdown
3.85%
sharpe
27.82
ulcer index
2.23%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1189.62
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.71%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
716.72
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.93%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-stx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.187
24h Δ · live
0.93%
24h vol · live
$0.2M
STX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1857 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.1842, 0.1919] · R²=0.125▲ RISING +0.31%σ LOW 0.89%LAST 0.18680.19190.19000.18810.18620.1842μ = 0.1857max 0.1919min 0.1842dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.19
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,121,424 · μ=44857.0 · σ=50638.2 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15048,60697,213145,819194,425μ = 44857194,425.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 194425 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.1s
$mark $
$0.187
$mid $
$0.187
◉prev-day close
$0.1853
Δ24h Δ %
+0.928%
$24h vol $
$207.85k
◐open interest $
$604.52k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1857 · σ=0.0017 · range [0.1842, 0.1919] · R²=0.125▲ RISING +0.31%σ LOW 0.89%LAST 0.18680.19190.19000.18810.18620.1842μ = 0.1857max 0.1919min 0.1842dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1870 · 24h 0.93% · range $[0.1842, 0.1919]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.1836, 0.1933] · σ=0.0017 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%BULLISH +0.93%CLOSE 0.1868 vs OPEN 0.1851 (+0.93%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.18680.19330.19080.18840.18600.1836μ close = 0.1857O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.62%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.62%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.60%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.60%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.33%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.33%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.00%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.00%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.75%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.75%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.18%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.18%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.12%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.12%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.05%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.05%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.31%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.31%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.51%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.51%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.54%)O0.186 H0.186 L0.185 C0.185 (-0.54%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.26%)O0.185 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (-0.26%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.185 C0.185 (+0.17%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.185 C0.185 (+0.17%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.47%)O0.185 H0.187 L0.185 C0.186 (+0.47%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (+0.22%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.20%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.20%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.184 C0.185 (-1.12%)O0.187 H0.187 L0.184 C0.185 (-1.12%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.11%)O0.185 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.11%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.15%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.184 (-0.15%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.18%)O0.184 H0.185 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.18%)O0.184 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.37%)O0.184 H0.186 L0.184 C0.185 (+0.37%)3.7%O0.185 H0.192 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.67%)O0.185 H0.192 L0.185 C0.192 (+3.67%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.79%)O0.192 H0.193 L0.188 C0.189 (-1.79%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.96%)O0.188 H0.188 L0.186 C0.186 (-0.96%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.34%)O0.186 H0.187 L0.186 C0.187 (+0.34%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,121,424 · μ=44857.0 · σ=50638.2 · CV=1.13BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=15048,60697,213145,819194,425μ = 4485746,071 · 23.7% peak46,071 · 23.7% peak126,087.8 · 64.9% peak126,087.8 · 64.9% peak22,848.9 · 11.8% peak22,848.9 · 11.8% peak86,344.8 · 44.4% peak86,344.8 · 44.4% peak52,122.7 · 26.8% peak52,122.7 · 26.8% peak28,898 · 14.9% peak28,898 · 14.9% peak13,722.4 · 7.1% peak13,722.4 · 7.1% peak34,305.9 · 17.6% peak34,305.9 · 17.6% peak25,763 · 13.3% peak25,763 · 13.3% peak17,200.7 · 8.8% peak17,200.7 · 8.8% peak19,572.9 · 10.1% peak19,572.9 · 10.1% peak9,999 · 5.1% peak9,999 · 5.1% peak44,105.2 · 22.7% peak44,105.2 · 22.7% peak13,651 · 7.0% peak13,651 · 7.0% peak23,780.8 · 12.2% peak23,780.8 · 12.2% peak10,734.8 · 5.5% peak10,734.8 · 5.5% peak14,692.1 · 7.6% peak14,692.1 · 7.6% peak37,126.2 · 19.1% peak37,126.2 · 19.1% peak70,625.1 · 36.3% peak70,625.1 · 36.3% peak9,943.7 · 5.1% peak9,943.7 · 5.1% peak8,804.3 · 4.5% peak8,804.3 · 4.5% peak194,425.1194,425.1 · 100.0% peak194,425.1 · 100.0% peak176,717.6 · 90.9% peak176,717.6 · 90.9% peak29,431.6 · 15.1% peak29,431.6 · 15.1% peak4,449.3 · 2.3% peak4,449.3 · 2.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1121424 · peak 194425 · CV 1.13

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0004 · σ=0.0091 · skew=1.73 (right-skewed) · kurt=5.93 (leptokurtic (fat tails))108530 2-145.89bpbin -145.89bp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -145.89bp · n=2 · 20.0% peak 1-101.41bpbin -101.41bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -101.41bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak 3-56.94bpbin -56.94bp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin -56.94bp · n=3 · 30.0% peak 6-12.46bpbin -12.46bp · n=6 · 60.0% peakbin -12.46bp · n=6 · 60.0% peak 1032.01bpbin 32.01bp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 32.01bp · n=10 · 100.0% peak 176.48bpbin 76.48bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 76.48bp · n=1 · 10.0% peak120.96bp165.43bp209.91bp254.38bp298.86bp 1343.33bpbin 343.33bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 343.33bp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.03 · kurt=7.24 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.85σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.187
Mid price
$0.187
24h change
+0.93%
Mark–mid spread
3.74 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1853

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=5.44)
μ MEAN0.1857$95% CI: [0.1851$, 0.1864$]
σ STD DEV0.0017$σ² = 0.027×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.89%
med MEDIAN0.1850$Q₁ 0.1846$ · Q₃ 0.1862$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0077$ · IQR 0.0016$ (1.349σ→0.0022$)
min 0.1842$Q₁ 0.1846$med 0.1850$Q₃ 0.1862$max 0.1919$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.218right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.444leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.41
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.39
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.65
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDGOOD · SR=1.27
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.012956%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.014
σᵣ STD / h0.956244%σ²ᵣ = 0.914×10⁻⁴ · CV = 73.81×
σ ANNUALISED89.50%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.956%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)1.27good · industry threshold
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)1.56good downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)39.39exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁2.17right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂9.31leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.23
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 39.39
EXPECTED EDGE+113.49%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.21%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.210%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.580%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.462%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.88%2h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.210%VaR₉₉−1.580%ES₉₅−1.462%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 2h duration
PEAK19.19$
−2.88% drawdown over 2h
18.64$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.31× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.97% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.646 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1894
Bollinger MA
$0.1857
Bollinger lower
$0.1821

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.159within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.268lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.954strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.809fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.954
H = 0.954STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.159k=2-0.268k=3-0.041k=4-0.044k=5-0.1630+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.81)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.81)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$207.85k
Open interest (USD)
$604.52k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.34x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
1.417× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
0.708× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.354×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.66% · worst -1.68% · typical |Δ| 0.54%MILD BULLISH +0.31%BEST+3.66%09hWORST-1.68%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.54%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.31%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.11%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.77%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.31%+3.01%-1.09%-0.51% · 13h-0.51% · 13h-0.51%13h0.29% · 14h0.29% · 14h0.29%14h0.17% · 15h0.17% · 15h0.17%15h-0.73% · 16h-0.73% · 16h-0.73%16h-0.11% · 17h-0.11% · 17h-0.11%17h-0.03% · 18h-0.03% · 18h-0.03%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.24% · 20h0.24% · 20h0.24%20h0.61% · 21h0.61% · 21h0.61%21h-0.63% · 22h-0.63% · 22h-0.63%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h0.16% · 00h0.16% · 00h0.16%00h0.45% · 01h0.45% · 01h0.45%01h0.24% · 02h0.24% · 02h0.24%02h0.13% · 03h0.13% · 03h0.13%03h-1.03% · 04h-1.03% · 04h-1.03%04h-0.11% · 05h-0.11% · 05h-0.11%05h-0.10% · 06h-0.10% · 06h-0.10%06h0.15% · 07h0.15% · 07h0.15%07h0.29% · 08h0.29% · 08h0.29%08h3.66% · 09h3.66% · 09h3.66%09h★ BEST-1.68% · 10h-1.68% · 10h-1.68%10h▼ WORST-1.24% · 11h-1.24% · 11h-1.24%11h0.22% · 12h0.22% · 12h0.22%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.20%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 46% down · 4% flat
12 up bars · 11 down · best 3.66% · worst -1.68% · typical |Δ| 0.537%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.21%FINAL+0.21%MAX DD-2.90%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.98%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0021 · peak 1.0298 · range [0.9891, 1.0298]1.02980.9891break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0298UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.90% · moderate0%-2.90%▼ TROUGH -2.90%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.90%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.24%bar 17-21 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.92%bar 2-14 · 13 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.90%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0021 (0.21%) · max DD -2.90% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=-0.12 · σ=18.61MIXED EDGELAST 11.62 (+0.63σ vs μ)36.4818.240.00-18.24-36.48μ = -0.12-36.48-36.48-18.23-18.23-21.15-21.15-0.95-0.952.892.892.892.8910.0210.0225.2525.2525.2025.209.819.81-4.84-4.84-4.84-4.84-12.94-12.94-24.36-24.36-22.07-22.0727.4027.4019.5019.508.918.9111.6211.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 11.619 · range [-36.48, 27.40] · μ -0.125 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=67.3883 · σ=53.2928 · range [32.3994, 175.9020] · R²=0.572▲ RISING +375.15%σ EXTREME 79.08%LAST 175.4272175.9020140.0263104.150768.275132.3994μ = 67.3883max 175.9020min 32.3994dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 175.43% · range [32.40%, 175.90%] · μ 67.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.089 · σ=0.193MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.200 (-0.58σ vs μ)0.4280.2140.000-0.214-0.428μ = -0.089-0.280-0.280-0.065-0.065-0.184-0.1840.2370.237-0.294-0.294-0.203-0.203-0.226-0.226-0.132-0.132-0.152-0.1520.3310.3310.0630.0630.1380.1380.0550.055-0.128-0.128-0.097-0.0970.0680.068-0.428-0.428-0.194-0.194-0.200-0.200v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.200 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
105.4167
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.7183
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5929
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0436
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.0599
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2892
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2710
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2327
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1871
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2352
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.639 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.36e-5 · top T=3.00h (21.8%) · top-3 cover 52.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.5e-41.8e-41.2e-46.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.83e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.83e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.19e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.19e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.18e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.18e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 17.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.89e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.89e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.01e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.01e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.45e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.45e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.60e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.60e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.41e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.41e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.21e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.21e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.42e-4 · 12.7% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 21.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.123e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 3.73× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.72× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
3.73×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.72×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.87×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.93×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.93× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 4.12400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.93× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 4.12
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.03%
VaR 95%5%
0.04%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.07%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 186% · APY 400% · Sharpe 2.63σ ann 71% · Sortino 1.74 · n 4999
0%96%192%288%384%480%185.8%APR (simple)399.6%APY (compound)70.6%Ann. vol σ263.0%Sharpe (ann)174.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1760.1810.1860.1910.1960.201t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:34 UTC
Snapshot age
5.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
278e937852cd561638638b800ba393c16359720660c18a819e8b37436b947795 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.80K
bid $95 · ask $2.71K
Depth within 10bp
$13.32K
bid $4.43K · ask $8.89K
Depth within 50bp
$68.53K
bid $48.63K · ask $19.90K
Mid price
0.187045
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.280
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.748
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1871284.44bp0.1871302FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1872018.34bp0.1873707FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.18776938.71bp0.18952020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1869276.29bp0.1868806FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.18680013.11bp0.18667012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18661323.08bp0.18637020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-stx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.12M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.141 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$462.05K
real volume
Sell weight
$613.30K
real volume
Net delta
$151.25K
sellers net
Imbalance
-14.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
14.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-stx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.88% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h0.191940→0.1864102.881%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.186540→0.1842301.238%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.186150→0.1845300.870%3

/api/asset/hl-stx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.64%
σ per bar = 0.000308
Mean return (annualised)
185.80%
μ per bar = 0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
2.63
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.85%
peak 0.19 → trough 0.19 over 1181 bars

/api/asset/hl-stx/risk · same metrics, JSON