HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STRK

STRK-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-strk · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.75%
realized vol (ann.)
56.29%
max drawdown
1.27%
sharpe
0.00
ulcer index
0.59%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.47%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
0.00
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.09%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
0.00
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.75%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-3.07%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change -1.75%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.7bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-strk/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.034
24h Δ · live
-1.75%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
STRK · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0347 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0342, 0.0350] · R²=0.517▼ FALLING -1.35%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.03430.03500.03480.03460.03440.0342μ = 0.0347max 0.0350min 0.0342dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 43.8%Short fee 56.2%SHORT FEE56.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.989 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
43.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
56.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000350% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=11,395,564 · μ=455822.6 · σ=456437.3 · CV=1.00BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130518,3901,036,7791,555,1692,073,559μ = 4558232,073,558.950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2073559 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.7s
$mark $
$0.0343
$mid $
$0.0343
◉prev-day close
$0.0349
Δ24h Δ %
-1.748%
$24h vol $
$383.05k
◐open interest $
$2.68M
%funding (1h)
-0.000350%
%funding (yr)
-3.07%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0347 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0342, 0.0350] · R²=0.517▼ FALLING -1.35%σ LOW 0.65%LAST 0.03430.03500.03480.03460.03440.0342μ = 0.0347max 0.0350min 0.0342dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0343 · 24h -1.75% · range $[0.0342, 0.0350]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.0341, 0.0355] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=32%BEARISH -0.58%CLOSE 0.0343 vs OPEN 0.0345 (-0.58%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03430.03550.03510.03480.03440.0341μ close = 0.0347O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.78%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (+0.78%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.49%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.49%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.14%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.03%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.11%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.11%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.55%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.55%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.43%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.43%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.035 (-0.23%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.20%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.20%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.06%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+0.17%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.69%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.29%)-0.9%O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.87%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.87%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.53%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.53%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.61%)O0.034 H0.035 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.61%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.29%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (+0.29%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.03%)O0.034 H0.034 L0.034 C0.034 (-0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=11,395,564 · μ=455822.6 · σ=456437.3 · CV=1.00BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130518,3901,036,7791,555,1692,073,559μ = 455823600,528.5 · 29.0% peak600,528.5 · 29.0% peak388,643.8 · 18.7% peak388,643.8 · 18.7% peak317,261 · 15.3% peak317,261 · 15.3% peak435,082.8 · 21.0% peak435,082.8 · 21.0% peak1,148,278.9 · 55.4% peak1,148,278.9 · 55.4% peak1,151,870.2 · 55.6% peak1,151,870.2 · 55.6% peak255,822.3 · 12.3% peak255,822.3 · 12.3% peak228,813.1 · 11.0% peak228,813.1 · 11.0% peak363,588.7 · 17.5% peak363,588.7 · 17.5% peak204,110.8 · 9.8% peak204,110.8 · 9.8% peak176,787.2 · 8.5% peak176,787.2 · 8.5% peak171,858.4 · 8.3% peak171,858.4 · 8.3% peak314,951.7 · 15.2% peak314,951.7 · 15.2% peak111,792.4 · 5.4% peak111,792.4 · 5.4% peak645,605.6 · 31.1% peak645,605.6 · 31.1% peak148,655.9 · 7.2% peak148,655.9 · 7.2% peak2,073,558.92,073,558.9 · 100.0% peak2,073,558.9 · 100.0% peak379,148.2 · 18.3% peak379,148.2 · 18.3% peak268,834.3 · 13.0% peak268,834.3 · 13.0% peak372,765.5 · 18.0% peak372,765.5 · 18.0% peak1,042,971.1 · 50.3% peak1,042,971.1 · 50.3% peak203,113.1 · 9.8% peak203,113.1 · 9.8% peak85,715.9 · 4.1% peak85,715.9 · 4.1% peak210,335.3 · 10.1% peak210,335.3 · 10.1% peak95,470.5 · 4.6% peak95,470.5 · 4.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 11395564 · peak 2073559 · CV 1.00

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0041 · skew=-0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.66 (mesokurtic)65320 1-92.09bpbin -92.09bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -92.09bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-78.83bpbin -78.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -78.83bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-65.56bpbin -65.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -65.56bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-52.30bpbin -52.30bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -52.30bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-39.04bpbin -39.04bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -39.04bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-25.77bpbin -25.77bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -25.77bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-12.51bpbin -12.51bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -12.51bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 60.75bpbin 0.75bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin 0.75bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak14.02bp 427.28bpbin 27.28bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 27.28bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak40.55bp 453.81bpbin 53.81bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 53.81bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.36 · kurt=-0.58 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0343
Mid price
$0.0343
24h change
-1.75%
Mark–mid spread
2.92 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0349

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.85)
μ MEAN0.0347$95% CI: [0.0346$, 0.0348$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.65%
med MEDIAN0.0348$Q₁ 0.0346$ · Q₃ 0.0348$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0002$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0342$Q₁ 0.0346$med 0.0348$Q₃ 0.0348$max 0.0350$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.847left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.466mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.39
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.52
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-12.28
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.056723%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.131
σᵣ STD / h0.432366%σ²ᵣ = 0.187×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.62×
σ ANNUALISED40.47%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.432%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-12.28negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.25downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.38approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.42mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-496.89%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.73%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.727%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.928%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.858%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.29%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.727%VaR₉₉−0.928%ES₉₅−0.858%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK3.50$
−2.29% drawdown over 13h
3.42$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.28× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.34% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
39.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.108 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0352
Bollinger MA
$0.0347
Bollinger lower
$0.0342

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.409negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.389lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.950strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.965significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.950
H = 0.950STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..52 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · k=1,5
k=1-0.409k=2+0.389k=3-0.390k=4+0.183k=5 ★-0.4500+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.97)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.97)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$383.05k
Open interest (USD)
$2.68M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.14x
1h funding
-0.000350%
Funding (annualised)
-3.07%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -0.99% · typical |Δ| 0.34%MILD BEARISH -1.36%BEST+0.60%03hWORST-0.99%08hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.36%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.83%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.36%+0.72%-1.59%0.03% · 13h0.03% · 13h0.03%13h0.06% · 14h0.06% · 14h0.06%14h0.54% · 15h0.54% · 15h0.54%15h-0.57% · 16h-0.57% · 16h-0.57%16h0.29% · 17h0.29% · 17h0.29%17h-0.09% · 18h-0.09% · 18h-0.09%18h0.03% · 19h0.03% · 19h0.03%19h-0.06% · 20h-0.06% · 20h-0.06%20h0.49% · 21h0.49% · 21h0.49%21h-0.40% · 22h-0.40% · 22h-0.40%22h-0.52% · 23h-0.52% · 23h-0.52%23h-0.17% · 00h-0.17% · 00h-0.17%00h0.23% · 01h0.23% · 01h0.23%01h-0.20% · 02h-0.20% · 02h-0.20%02h0.60% · 03h0.60% · 03h0.60%03h★ BEST-0.03% · 04h-0.03% · 04h-0.03%04h0.23% · 05h0.23% · 05h0.23%05h-0.72% · 06h-0.72% · 06h-0.72%06h-0.17% · 07h-0.17% · 07h-0.17%07h-0.99% · 08h-0.99% · 08h-0.99%08h▼ WORST0.55% · 09h0.55% · 09h0.55%09h-0.73% · 10h-0.73% · 10h-0.73%10h0.29% · 11h0.29% · 11h0.29%11h-0.06% · 12h-0.06% · 12h-0.06%12hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-0.23%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.60% · worst -0.99% · typical |Δ| 0.335%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.37%)FINAL-1.37%MAX DD-2.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.71%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9863 · peak 1.0071 · range [0.9840, 1.0071]1.00710.9840break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0071UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.30% · moderate0%-2.30%▼ TROUGH -2.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.30%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.57%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9863 (-1.37%) · max DD -2.30% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-11.63 · σ=21.57MIXED EDGELAST -29.26 (-0.82σ vs μ)46.7423.370.00-23.37-46.74μ = -11.6310.7210.7210.7110.715.925.923.693.6913.0113.01-24.06-24.06-27.77-27.77-17.72-17.72-23.44-23.44-17.01-17.01-3.45-3.4533.6333.633.973.97-10.10-10.10-28.34-28.34-30.39-30.39-46.74-46.74-44.31-44.31-29.26-29.26v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -29.255 · range [-46.74, 33.63] · μ -11.628 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=40.7722 · σ=9.9014 · range [28.6931, 58.0636] · R²=0.656▲ RISING +56.14%σ EXTREME 24.28%LAST 55.000758.063650.721043.378436.035728.6931μ = 40.7722max 58.0636min 28.6931dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.66μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 55.00% · range [28.69%, 58.06%] · μ 40.77% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.371 · σ=0.295MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.695 (-1.10σ vs μ)0.7080.3540.000-0.354-0.708μ = -0.371-0.684-0.684-0.681-0.681-0.696-0.696-0.340-0.340-0.561-0.561-0.036-0.0360.0150.015-0.020-0.020-0.104-0.1040.0360.036-0.172-0.172-0.662-0.662-0.360-0.360-0.186-0.186-0.028-0.028-0.459-0.459-0.708-0.708-0.698-0.698-0.695-0.695v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.695 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7669
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6815
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
21.0280
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0009
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1234
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7061
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1374
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0326
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (18 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6019
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0225
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7679
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4426
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.766 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.54e-5 · top T=2.00h (58.7%) · top-3 cover 74.8%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-41.3e-48.9e-54.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.67e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.67e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.31e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.31e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.06e-5 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.48e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.48e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.64e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.64e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.71e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.71e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.58e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.58e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.40e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.40e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.89e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.89e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.41e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.41e-5 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.79e-4 · 58.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.79e-4 · 58.7% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 58.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.044e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-23.43×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -16.95400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -16.95
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -19.44σ ann 83% · Sortino -13.16 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2333%-1846%-1360%-873%-387%100%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)83.0%Ann. vol σ-1944.1%Sharpe (ann)-1315.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0330.0340.0340.0350.0360.037t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
5.7s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0a14693dacd9ca4f8cac813b9dd14ec316d5242993759b24f33b5031926f25b4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.56K
bid $2.19K · ask $1.37K
Depth within 10bp
$23.49K
bid $9.75K · ask $13.74K
Depth within 50bp
$215.10K
bid $118.64K · ask $96.47K
Mid price
0.034300
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.167
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.077
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-strk/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0343102.92bp0.0343101FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0343216.17bp0.0343303FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03439226.94bp0.03450019FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0342902.92bp0.0342901FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0342786.37bp0.0342604FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03420029.22bp0.03413014FILLED

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-3.502e-6
-0.00035% / hr
Annualised APR
-3.070%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
119.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
119.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE3.070%119.0d3.26y
SHORTPAY-3.070%119.0d3.26y

/api/asset/hl-strk/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$11.40M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-strk/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.300 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.78M
real volume
Sell weight
$7.02M
real volume
Net delta
$3.24M
sellers net
Imbalance
-29.99%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
30.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-strk/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 2.03% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z4.0h0.034920→0.0342102.033%5
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z1.0h0.035010→0.0346301.085%2
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z0ms0.034980→0.0347800.572%1

/api/asset/hl-strk/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
82.98%
σ per bar = 0.000362
Mean return (annualised)
-1613.24%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-19.44
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.92%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 2406 bars

/api/asset/hl-strk/risk · same metrics, JSON