HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SPX

SPX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-spx · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.83%
realized vol (ann.)
62.71%
max drawdown
1.39%
sharpe
-21.71
ulcer index
0.65%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2079.48
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1105.52
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.83%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +2.83%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-spx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.329
24h Δ · live
2.83%
24h vol · live
$2.0M
SPX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3309 · σ=0.0044 · range [0.3201, 0.3389] · R²=0.220▲ RISING +2.83%σ NORMAL 1.34%LAST 0.32910.33890.33420.32950.32480.3201μ = 0.3309max 0.3389min 0.3201dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.33
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,021,972 · μ=240878.9 · σ=366065.0 · CV=1.52BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140422,760845,5201,268,2801,691,040μ = 2408791,691,040.450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1691040 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.2s
$mark $
$0.3292
$mid $
$0.3294
◉prev-day close
$0.3202
Δ24h Δ %
+2.827%
$24h vol $
$1.99M
◐open interest $
$3.18M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3309 · σ=0.0044 · range [0.3201, 0.3389] · R²=0.220▲ RISING +2.83%σ NORMAL 1.34%LAST 0.32910.33890.33420.32950.32480.3201μ = 0.3309max 0.3389min 0.3201dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3292 · 24h 2.83% · range $[0.3201, 0.3389]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 15 · down 10 (60% up) · range [0.3189, 0.3416] · σ=0.0044 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=46%BULLISH +2.92%CLOSE 0.3291 vs OPEN 0.3198 (+2.92%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.32910.34160.33590.33030.32460.3189μ close = 0.3309O0.320 H0.321 L0.319 C0.320 (+0.08%)O0.320 H0.321 L0.319 C0.320 (+0.08%)O0.320 H0.323 L0.320 C0.323 (+0.86%)O0.320 H0.323 L0.320 C0.323 (+0.86%)O0.323 H0.325 L0.323 C0.325 (+0.61%)O0.323 H0.325 L0.323 C0.325 (+0.61%)O0.325 H0.329 L0.325 C0.329 (+1.19%)O0.325 H0.329 L0.325 C0.329 (+1.19%)O0.329 H0.338 L0.324 C0.329 (+0.10%)O0.329 H0.338 L0.324 C0.329 (+0.10%)O0.329 H0.333 L0.327 C0.328 (-0.27%)O0.329 H0.333 L0.327 C0.328 (-0.27%)O0.328 H0.331 L0.327 C0.329 (+0.26%)O0.328 H0.331 L0.327 C0.329 (+0.26%)O0.329 H0.331 L0.328 C0.329 (+0.09%)O0.329 H0.331 L0.328 C0.329 (+0.09%)O0.329 H0.331 L0.327 C0.330 (+0.24%)O0.329 H0.331 L0.327 C0.330 (+0.24%)O0.330 H0.335 L0.328 C0.334 (+1.04%)O0.330 H0.335 L0.328 C0.334 (+1.04%)O0.334 H0.335 L0.333 C0.333 (-0.39%)O0.334 H0.335 L0.333 C0.333 (-0.39%)O0.333 H0.337 L0.332 C0.333 (-0.03%)O0.333 H0.337 L0.332 C0.333 (-0.03%)O0.332 H0.342 L0.332 C0.339 (+1.96%)O0.332 H0.342 L0.332 C0.339 (+1.96%)O0.339 H0.340 L0.335 C0.336 (-0.92%)O0.339 H0.340 L0.335 C0.336 (-0.92%)O0.335 H0.339 L0.334 C0.337 (+0.62%)O0.335 H0.339 L0.334 C0.337 (+0.62%)O0.337 H0.339 L0.336 C0.339 (+0.35%)O0.337 H0.339 L0.336 C0.339 (+0.35%)O0.338 H0.340 L0.336 C0.336 (-0.86%)O0.338 H0.340 L0.336 C0.336 (-0.86%)-1.9%O0.336 H0.336 L0.324 C0.329 (-1.94%)O0.336 H0.336 L0.324 C0.329 (-1.94%)O0.329 H0.332 L0.329 C0.331 (+0.70%)O0.329 H0.332 L0.329 C0.331 (+0.70%)O0.331 H0.335 L0.331 C0.332 (+0.30%)O0.331 H0.335 L0.331 C0.332 (+0.30%)O0.333 H0.334 L0.331 C0.331 (-0.59%)O0.333 H0.334 L0.331 C0.331 (-0.59%)O0.331 H0.332 L0.328 C0.332 (+0.28%)O0.331 H0.332 L0.328 C0.332 (+0.28%)O0.331 H0.333 L0.330 C0.330 (-0.23%)O0.331 H0.333 L0.330 C0.330 (-0.23%)O0.331 H0.331 L0.330 C0.330 (-0.22%)O0.331 H0.331 L0.330 C0.330 (-0.22%)O0.330 H0.330 L0.329 C0.329 (-0.35%)O0.330 H0.330 L0.329 C0.329 (-0.35%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,021,972 · μ=240878.9 · σ=366065.0 · CV=1.52BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140422,760845,5201,268,2801,691,040μ = 24087941,895.5 · 2.5% peak41,895.5 · 2.5% peak320,165.7 · 18.9% peak320,165.7 · 18.9% peak227,966.1 · 13.5% peak227,966.1 · 13.5% peak248,903 · 14.7% peak248,903 · 14.7% peak1,052,517.6 · 62.2% peak1,052,517.6 · 62.2% peak123,095.3 · 7.3% peak123,095.3 · 7.3% peak163,886.5 · 9.7% peak163,886.5 · 9.7% peak121,822.4 · 7.2% peak121,822.4 · 7.2% peak102,378.8 · 6.1% peak102,378.8 · 6.1% peak72,628.7 · 4.3% peak72,628.7 · 4.3% peak91,609.1 · 5.4% peak91,609.1 · 5.4% peak48,957.3 · 2.9% peak48,957.3 · 2.9% peak311,336.9 · 18.4% peak311,336.9 · 18.4% peak92,792.1 · 5.5% peak92,792.1 · 5.5% peak79,194.4 · 4.7% peak79,194.4 · 4.7% peak91,874.7 · 5.4% peak91,874.7 · 5.4% peak102,309.5 · 6.1% peak102,309.5 · 6.1% peak1,691,040.41,691,040.4 · 100.0% peak1,691,040.4 · 100.0% peak274,925.7 · 16.3% peak274,925.7 · 16.3% peak395,280 · 23.4% peak395,280 · 23.4% peak48,225.3 · 2.9% peak48,225.3 · 2.9% peak92,013.3 · 5.4% peak92,013.3 · 5.4% peak89,468.3 · 5.3% peak89,468.3 · 5.3% peak127,300 · 7.5% peak127,300 · 7.5% peak10,385.5 · 0.6% peak10,385.5 · 0.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6021972 · peak 1691040 · CV 1.52

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0012 · σ=0.0073 · skew=-0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=0.54 (mesokurtic)54310 1-173.73bpbin -173.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -173.73bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-142.12bp 1-110.52bpbin -110.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -110.52bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-78.91bpbin -78.91bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -78.91bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-47.31bpbin -47.31bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -47.31bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-15.70bpbin -15.70bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -15.70bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 515.90bpbin 15.90bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 15.90bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 447.51bpbin 47.51bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 47.51bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 279.11bpbin 79.11bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 79.11bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2110.72bpbin 110.72bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 110.72bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak142.32bp 1173.92bpbin 173.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 173.92bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.19 · kurt=0.81 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3292
Mid price
$0.3294
24h change
+2.83%
Mark–mid spread
3.95 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3202

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.3309$95% CI: [0.3292$, 0.3326$]
σ STD DEV0.0044$σ² = 0.196×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.34%
med MEDIAN0.3303$Q₁ 0.3291$ · Q₃ 0.3330$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0189$ · IQR 0.0039$ (1.349σ→0.0060$)
min 0.3201$Q₁ 0.3291$med 0.3303$Q₃ 0.3330$max 0.3389$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.253approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.058mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.52
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.26
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=13.83
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.116312%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.148
σᵣ STD / h0.786978%σ²ᵣ = 0.619×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.77×
σ ANNUALISED73.66%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.787%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)13.83excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)14.15strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.20approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.31leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.02
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1018.89%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.97%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.968%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.686%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.440%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.90%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.968%VaR₉₉−1.686%ES₉₅−1.440%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK33.89$
−2.90% drawdown over 12h
32.91$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.49× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.74× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.99% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
55.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.258 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3390
Bollinger MA
$0.3323
Bollinger lower
$0.3257

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.083within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.100lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.848strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.546significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.848
H = 0.848STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.083k=2-0.100k=3+0.270k=4-0.057k=5-0.2060+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.99M
Open interest (USD)
$3.18M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.63x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.90% · worst -1.90% · typical |Δ| 0.58%MILD BULLISH +2.79%BEST+1.90%00hWORST-1.90%05hTYPICAL |Δ|0.58%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.79%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.03%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.69%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.12%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.79%+5.73%0.00%0.91% · 13h0.91% · 13h0.91%13h0.63% · 14h0.63% · 14h0.63%14h1.17% · 15h1.17% · 15h1.17%15h0.12% · 16h0.12% · 16h0.12%16h-0.24% · 17h-0.24% · 17h-0.24%17h0.11% · 18h0.11% · 18h0.11%18h0.08% · 19h0.08% · 19h0.08%19h0.24% · 20h0.24% · 20h0.24%20h1.18% · 21h1.18% · 21h1.18%21h-0.24% · 22h-0.24% · 22h-0.24%22h-0.13% · 23h-0.13% · 23h-0.13%23h1.90% · 00h1.90% · 00h1.90%00h★ BEST-0.98% · 01h-0.98% · 01h-0.98%01h0.52% · 02h0.52% · 02h0.52%02h0.34% · 03h0.34% · 03h0.34%03h-0.88% · 04h-0.88% · 04h-0.88%04h-1.90% · 05h-1.90% · 05h-1.90%05h▼ WORST0.65% · 06h0.65% · 06h0.65%06h0.32% · 07h0.32% · 07h0.32%07h-0.51% · 08h-0.51% · 08h-0.51%08h0.21% · 09h0.21% · 09h0.21%09h-0.36% · 10h-0.36% · 10h-0.36%10h-0.14% · 11h-0.14% · 11h-0.14%11h-0.23% · 12h-0.23% · 12h-0.23%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.69%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.90% · worst -1.90% · typical |Δ| 0.583%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.76%FINAL+2.76%MAX DD-2.93%RECOVERYONGOING · 12 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.86%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0276 · peak 1.0586 · range [1.0000, 1.0586]1.05861.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0586UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.93% · moderate0%-2.93%▼ TROUGH -2.93%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.93%bar 14-25 · 12 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.37%bar 11-12 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.24%bar 6-8 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.93%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0276 (2.76%) · max DD -2.93% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=14.52 · σ=36.49MIXED EDGELAST -33.47 (-1.32σ vs μ)77.8738.930.00-38.93-77.87μ = 14.5277.8777.8757.7557.7548.1548.1548.0748.0733.7933.7938.3138.3155.7155.7129.4029.4033.5333.5322.5922.5911.2011.20-11.53-11.53-34.03-34.03-14.47-14.47-31.98-31.98-34.55-34.55-26.99-26.996.556.55-33.47-33.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -33.470 · range [-34.55, 77.87] · μ 14.520 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=73.8440 · σ=27.4935 · range [30.3791, 126.6314] · R²=0.085▼ FALLING -40.07%σ EXTREME 37.23%LAST 30.3791126.6314102.568378.505254.442230.3791μ = 73.8440max 126.6314min 30.3791dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.38% · range [30.38%, 126.63%] · μ 73.84% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.198 · σ=0.297MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.709 (-1.72σ vs μ)0.7090.3550.000-0.355-0.709μ = -0.1980.2990.2990.2920.2920.0300.0300.1260.126-0.243-0.243-0.186-0.186-0.272-0.272-0.564-0.564-0.590-0.590-0.593-0.593-0.530-0.530-0.113-0.113-0.200-0.2000.0420.042-0.112-0.112-0.056-0.056-0.305-0.305-0.083-0.083-0.709-0.709v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.709 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.8792
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3908
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1227
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5337
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7807
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0637
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4056
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0747
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5664
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5711
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.828 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.96e-5 · top T=3.00h (25.5%) · top-3 cover 54.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-41.4e-49.1e-54.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.42e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.42e-5 · 10.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.51e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.51e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.55e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.55e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.43e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.43e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.99e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.99e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.69e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.82e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.82e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.85e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.85e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.02e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.22e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.22e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.41e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.41e-6 · 0.8% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 25.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.149e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-50.18×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -39.01400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.017
annualized -39.01
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -37.89σ ann 76% · Sortino -29.63 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-4547%-3620%-2692%-1765%-837%91%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)75.5%Ann. vol σ-3789.3%Sharpe (ann)-2963.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3140.3220.3300.3380.3460.354t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:34 UTC
Snapshot age
5.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:40 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7b51b33e2b533544a0b41ebdab6dabc82ca44bca6e521b253e764b922b51b8c5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,473HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.04

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.80K
bid $686 · ask $1.12K
Depth within 10bp
$10.40K
bid $3.03K · ask $7.37K
Depth within 50bp
$33.01K
bid $14.52K · ask $18.49K
Mid price
0.329355
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.119
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.107
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-spx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3294242.11bp0.3295102FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3296087.69bp0.32978013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.32973311.47bp0.33002020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3291835.22bp0.3290704FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.32895812.06bp0.32874017FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.32887814.49bp0.32866020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-spx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$6.02M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-spx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.189 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.55M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.43M
real volume
Net delta
$1.13M
buyers net
Imbalance
18.89%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
18.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-spx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 2.74% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.338520→0.3292602.735%5
#22026-06-14 01:00:00Z0ms0.338940→0.3356200.980%1
#32026-06-14 12:00:00Z0ms0.331510→0.3291100.724%1

/api/asset/hl-spx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
75.52%
σ per bar = 0.000329
Mean return (annualised)
-2861.56%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-37.89
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.79%
peak 0.34 → trough 0.33 over 919 bars

/api/asset/hl-spx/risk · same metrics, JSON