HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SKY

SKY-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sky · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.99%
realized vol (ann.)
28.54%
max drawdown
0.55%
sharpe
42.59
ulcer index
0.23%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
5331.63
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.51%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.10
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2386.70
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.10
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.99%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sky/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.057
24h Δ · live
0.99%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
SKY · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0562 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0557, 0.0568] · R²=0.444▲ RISING +1.85%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.05680.05680.05650.05620.05600.0557μ = 0.0562max 0.0568min 0.0557dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.06
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,544,677 · μ=181787.1 · σ=331647.4 · CV=1.82BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=40411,372822,7451,234,1171,645,489μ = 1817871,645,48950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1645489 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.5s
$mark $
$0.0568
$mid $
$0.0568
◉prev-day close
$0.0562
Δ24h Δ %
+0.994%
$24h vol $
$254.83k
◐open interest $
$1.49M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0562 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0557, 0.0568] · R²=0.444▲ RISING +1.85%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.05680.05680.05650.05620.05600.0557μ = 0.0562max 0.0568min 0.0557dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0568 · 24h 0.99% · range $[0.0557, 0.0568]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 17 · down 8 (68% up) · range [0.0556, 0.0569] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=56%BULLISH +1.02%CLOSE 0.0568 vs OPEN 0.0562 (+1.02%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.05680.05690.05650.05620.05590.0556μ close = 0.0562-0.8%O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.81%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.81%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.28%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.28%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.33%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.33%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.62%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.62%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.19%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.19%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.09%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.09%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.10%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.10%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.69%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.69%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.34%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.34%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.28%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.28%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.10%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.10%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.15%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.15%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.25%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.25%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.61%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.61%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.21%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.21%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.51%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.51%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.59%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.59%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.19%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.19%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.03%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.03%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.31%)O0.056 H0.056 L0.056 C0.056 (+0.31%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.24%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.24%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.28%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.28%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.40%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.056 C0.056 (-0.40%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.53%)O0.056 H0.057 L0.056 C0.057 (+0.53%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.057 C0.057 (+0.04%)O0.057 H0.057 L0.057 C0.057 (+0.04%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,544,677 · μ=181787.1 · σ=331647.4 · CV=1.82BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=40411,372822,7451,234,1171,645,489μ = 181787401,680 · 24.4% peak401,680 · 24.4% peak504,550 · 30.7% peak504,550 · 30.7% peak50,538 · 3.1% peak50,538 · 3.1% peak1,645,4891,645,489 · 100.0% peak1,645,489 · 100.0% peak279,756 · 17.0% peak279,756 · 17.0% peak33,023 · 2.0% peak33,023 · 2.0% peak53,491 · 3.3% peak53,491 · 3.3% peak251,692 · 15.3% peak251,692 · 15.3% peak50,367 · 3.1% peak50,367 · 3.1% peak267,121 · 16.2% peak267,121 · 16.2% peak23,367 · 1.4% peak23,367 · 1.4% peak219,876 · 13.4% peak219,876 · 13.4% peak84,214 · 5.1% peak84,214 · 5.1% peak37,350 · 2.3% peak37,350 · 2.3% peak33,603 · 2.0% peak33,603 · 2.0% peak191,490 · 11.6% peak191,490 · 11.6% peak90,422 · 5.5% peak90,422 · 5.5% peak30,768 · 1.9% peak30,768 · 1.9% peak34,873 · 2.1% peak34,873 · 2.1% peak25,456 · 1.5% peak25,456 · 1.5% peak81,169 · 4.9% peak81,169 · 4.9% peak62,602 · 3.8% peak62,602 · 3.8% peak40,856 · 2.5% peak40,856 · 2.5% peak44,524 · 2.7% peak44,524 · 2.7% peak6,400 · 0.4% peak6,400 · 0.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4544677 · peak 1645489 · CV 1.82

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0008 · σ=0.0036 · skew=-0.48 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.82 (mesokurtic)43210 2-63.45bpbin -63.45bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -63.45bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-52.74bp 2-42.03bpbin -42.03bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -42.03bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-31.32bpbin -31.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -31.32bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 1-20.61bpbin -20.61bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -20.61bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-9.90bpbin -9.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -9.90bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 10.81bpbin 0.81bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 0.81bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 211.52bpbin 11.52bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 11.52bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 422.23bpbin 22.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 22.23bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 332.94bpbin 32.94bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 32.94bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 143.65bpbin 43.65bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 43.65bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 454.36bpbin 54.36bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 54.36bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 15 · negative 9
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.51 · kurt=-0.71 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0568
Mid price
$0.0568
24h change
+0.99%
Mark–mid spread
0.35 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0562

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0562$95% CI: [0.0561$, 0.0564$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.53%
med MEDIAN0.0562$Q₁ 0.0560$ · Q₃ 0.0564$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0011$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0557$Q₁ 0.0560$med 0.0562$Q₃ 0.0564$max 0.0568$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.032approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.865mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.67
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=19.40
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.076343%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.207
σᵣ STD / h0.368310%σ²ᵣ = 0.136×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.82×
σ ANNUALISED34.47%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.368%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)19.40excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)18.49strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.54left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.59mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+668.77%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.58%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.579%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.669%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.648%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.34%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.579%VaR₉₉−0.669%ES₉₅−0.648%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK5.64$
−1.34% drawdown over 5h
5.57$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.12× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
63.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.926 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0569
Bollinger MA
$0.0563
Bollinger lower
$0.0556

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.244within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.186lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.179strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.290significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.179
H = 1.179STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.244k=2+0.186k=3-0.042k=4-0.067k=5 ★-0.4220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.29)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.29)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$254.83k
Open interest (USD)
$1.49M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.32%BULLISH SESSION +1.83%BEST+0.60%11hWORST-0.69%19hTYPICAL |Δ|0.32%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.83%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.76%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +1.97%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.90%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.83%+1.83%-0.13%0.39% · 13h0.39% · 13h0.39%13h0.29% · 14h0.29% · 14h0.29%14h0.55% · 15h0.55% · 15h0.55%15h-0.25% · 16h-0.25% · 16h-0.25%16h-0.11% · 17h-0.11% · 17h-0.11%17h0.10% · 18h0.10% · 18h0.10%18h-0.69% · 19h-0.69% · 19h-0.69%19h▼ WORST-0.40% · 20h-0.40% · 20h-0.40%20h0.38% · 21h0.38% · 21h0.38%21h-0.09% · 22h-0.09% · 22h-0.09%22h0.16% · 23h0.16% · 23h0.16%23h0.27% · 00h0.27% · 00h0.27%00h0.51% · 01h0.51% · 01h0.51%01h-0.29% · 02h-0.29% · 02h-0.29%02h0.53% · 03h0.53% · 03h0.53%03h-0.61% · 04h-0.61% · 04h-0.61%04h0.18% · 05h0.18% · 05h0.18%05h-0.05% · 06h-0.05% · 06h-0.05%06h0.21% · 07h0.21% · 07h0.21%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.30% · 09h0.30% · 09h0.30%09h-0.42% · 10h-0.42% · 10h-0.42%10h0.60% · 11h0.60% · 11h0.60%11h★ BEST0.02% · 12h0.02% · 12h0.02%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.97%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH63% up · 38% down
15 up bars · 9 down · best 0.60% · worst -0.69% · typical |Δ| 0.318%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.83%FINAL+1.83%MAX DD-1.34%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+1.83%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0183 · peak 1.0183 · range [0.9987, 1.0183]1.01830.9987break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0183UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.34% · moderate0%-1.34%▼ TROUGH -1.34%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.34%bar 5-15 · 11 bars · recovered#2 -0.61%bar 17-21 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.42%bar 23-23 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.34%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0183 (1.83%) · max DD -1.34% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=12.67 · σ=29.93MIXED EDGELAST 43.71 (+1.04σ vs μ)52.6526.320.00-26.32-52.65μ = 12.6748.9848.98-4.45-4.45-29.51-29.51-40.24-40.24-33.81-33.81-21.06-21.06-13.42-13.4239.4239.4249.6649.6652.6552.6520.0520.0520.4920.499.689.68-1.03-1.0320.6420.6412.6712.6726.6126.6139.7639.7643.7143.71v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 43.714 · range [-40.24, 52.65] · μ 12.673 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=35.1200 · σ=5.2194 · range [25.4294, 42.6717] · R²=0.035▲ RISING +11.28%σ HIGH 14.86%LAST 31.793042.671738.361134.050529.740025.4294μ = 35.1200max 42.6717min 25.4294dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 31.79% · range [25.43%, 42.67%] · μ 35.12% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.316 · σ=0.282MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.654 (-1.20σ vs μ)0.7430.3710.000-0.371-0.743μ = -0.3160.1050.105-0.027-0.027-0.066-0.066-0.188-0.188-0.131-0.131-0.096-0.0960.1340.134-0.250-0.250-0.389-0.389-0.535-0.535-0.527-0.527-0.591-0.591-0.720-0.720-0.743-0.743-0.510-0.510-0.050-0.050-0.210-0.210-0.551-0.551-0.654-0.654v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.654 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5260
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4663
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.6413
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6766
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4492
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2282
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2194
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5645
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0271
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6692
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5034
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.796 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.60e-5 · top T=2.00h (37.8%) · top-3 cover 64.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.3e-55.5e-53.6e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.34e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.34e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.33e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.33e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.12e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.12e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.39e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.39e-6 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.11e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.11e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.47e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.47e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.90e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.90e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.28e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.28e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.27e-5 · 37.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.27e-5 · 37.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 37.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.923e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 59.74× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
59.74×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.000% · annualized Sharpe 24.00400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.010
annualized 24.00
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.04%
VaR 95%5%
0.05%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.09%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 481% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 16.95σ ann 28% · Sortino 10.26 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%407%814%1220%1627%2034%480.8%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)28.4%Ann. vol σ1694.9%Sharpe (ann)1026.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0540.0550.0560.0570.0580.059t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
4.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:50 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2b25d6b2f4c649945572208d603f117e478221e5244f1d65e1df72da369424d4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.90K
bid $2.32K · ask $1.58K
Depth within 10bp
$9.85K
bid $5.00K · ask $4.85K
Depth within 50bp
$22.35K
bid $11.36K · ask $10.99K
Mid price
0.056790
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.107
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.135
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sky/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0568052.69bp0.0568113FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05686312.86bp0.05694918FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.05687214.58bp0.05705020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0567742.81bp0.0567633FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05671014.04bp0.05661414FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.05665823.11bp0.05645920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-sky/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.54M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sky/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.595 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
15 / 9
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.31M
real volume
Sell weight
$837.96K
real volume
Net delta
$2.47M
buyers net
Imbalance
59.55%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
59.5%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sky/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 2 found · deepest 1.09% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 19:00:00Z2.0h0.056302→0.0556861.094%3
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.056518→0.0561760.605%1

/api/asset/hl-sky/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
28.37%
σ per bar = 0.000124
Mean return (annualised)
480.80%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
16.95
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.77%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.06 over 982 bars

/api/asset/hl-sky/risk · same metrics, JSON