HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SEI

SEI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sei · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.69%
realized vol (ann.)
48.22%
max drawdown
1.33%
sharpe
-10.35
ulcer index
0.73%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-683.22
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-389.93
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.69%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.69%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.9bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sei/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.053
24h Δ · live
-2.69%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
SEI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0539 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0530, 0.0547] · R²=0.818▼ FALLING -2.78%σ LOW 0.96%LAST 0.05320.05470.05430.05380.05340.0530μ = 0.0539max 0.0547min 0.0530dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=9,917,773 · μ=396710.9 · σ=232209.2 · CV=0.59RISING +45% h/hcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140232,110464,220696,329928,439μ = 396711928,43950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 928439 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.8s
$mark $
$0.0532
$mid $
$0.0532
◉prev-day close
$0.0546
Δ24h Δ %
-2.687%
$24h vol $
$528.97k
◐open interest $
$1.53M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0539 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0530, 0.0547] · R²=0.818▼ FALLING -2.78%σ LOW 0.96%LAST 0.05320.05470.05430.05380.05340.0530μ = 0.0539max 0.0547min 0.0530dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0532 · 24h -2.69% · range $[0.0530, 0.0547]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0529, 0.0549] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -3.00%CLOSE 0.0532 vs OPEN 0.0548 (-3.00%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05320.05490.05440.05390.05340.0529μ close = 0.0539O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (-0.22%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (-0.22%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.51%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.51%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.16%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.16%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.23%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.23%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.05%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.055 (+0.05%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.03%)O0.055 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.03%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.10%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.10%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.21%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.01%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.01%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.13%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.13%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.40%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.40%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.73%)O0.054 H0.055 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.73%)-1.3%O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.31%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-1.31%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.40%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.40%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.57%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.054 (+0.57%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (+0.42%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.87%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.054 C0.054 (-0.87%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.64%)O0.054 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.64%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.38%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.38%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.82%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.82%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.39%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.39%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.44%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (+0.44%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.13%)O0.053 H0.054 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.13%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.48%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.48%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.00%)O0.053 H0.053 L0.053 C0.053 (-0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=9,917,773 · μ=396710.9 · σ=232209.2 · CV=0.59RISING +45% h/hcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140232,110464,220696,329928,439μ = 396711255,457 · 27.5% peak255,457 · 27.5% peak282,268 · 30.4% peak282,268 · 30.4% peak369,022 · 39.7% peak369,022 · 39.7% peak210,461 · 22.7% peak210,461 · 22.7% peak462,825 · 49.8% peak462,825 · 49.8% peak768,980 · 82.8% peak768,980 · 82.8% peak303,886 · 32.7% peak303,886 · 32.7% peak453,014 · 48.8% peak453,014 · 48.8% peak254,646 · 27.4% peak254,646 · 27.4% peak368,727 · 39.7% peak368,727 · 39.7% peak126,178 · 13.6% peak126,178 · 13.6% peak196,948 · 21.2% peak196,948 · 21.2% peak526,596 · 56.7% peak526,596 · 56.7% peak659,589 · 71.0% peak659,589 · 71.0% peak861,379 · 92.8% peak861,379 · 92.8% peak366,645 · 39.5% peak366,645 · 39.5% peak325,268 · 35.0% peak325,268 · 35.0% peak305,531 · 32.9% peak305,531 · 32.9% peak928,439928,439 · 100.0% peak928,439 · 100.0% peak663,216 · 71.4% peak663,216 · 71.4% peak307,121 · 33.1% peak307,121 · 33.1% peak544,636 · 58.7% peak544,636 · 58.7% peak185,929 · 20.0% peak185,929 · 20.0% peak169,808 · 18.3% peak169,808 · 18.3% peak21,204 · 2.3% peak21,204 · 2.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 9917773 · peak 928439 · CV 0.59

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0051 · skew=-0.27 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.70 (mesokurtic)54310 1-119.15bpbin -119.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -119.15bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-101.84bpbin -101.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -101.84bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-84.54bpbin -84.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -84.54bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1-67.23bpbin -67.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -67.23bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 3-49.92bpbin -49.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -49.92bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-32.62bpbin -32.62bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -32.62bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 2-15.31bpbin -15.31bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -15.31bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 21.99bpbin 1.99bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 1.99bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 519.30bpbin 19.30bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 19.30bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 136.61bpbin 36.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 36.61bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 253.91bpbin 53.91bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 53.91bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 271.22bpbin 71.22bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 71.22bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.29 · kurt=-0.58 · near 24 / mid 0 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0532
Mid price
$0.0532
24h change
-2.69%
Mark–mid spread
0.75 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0546

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.41)
μ MEAN0.0539$95% CI: [0.0537$, 0.0541$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.96%
med MEDIAN0.0540$Q₁ 0.0534$ · Q₃ 0.0542$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0017$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0530$Q₁ 0.0534$med 0.0540$Q₃ 0.0542$max 0.0547$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.065approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.411platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.25
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-20.64
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.117531%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.220
σᵣ STD / h0.533081%σ²ᵣ = 0.284×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.54×
σ ANNUALISED49.89%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.533%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-20.64negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-17.12downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.31approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.42mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.83
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1029.57%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.94%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.944%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.205%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.119%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.09%18h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.944%VaR₉₉−1.205%ES₉₅−1.119%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 18h duration
PEAK5.47$
−3.09% drawdown over 18h
5.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.28× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.19% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
36.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.198 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0546
Bollinger MA
$0.0537
Bollinger lower
$0.0528

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.162within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.350lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.804strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.162significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.804
H = 0.804STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.162k=2-0.350k=3-0.217k=4+0.212k=5+0.0890+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.16)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.77very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.16)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$528.97k
Open interest (USD)
$1.53M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.35x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.80% · worst -1.28% · typical |Δ| 0.43%MILD BEARISH -2.82%BEST+0.80%07hWORST-1.28%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.43%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.82%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.84%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.82%+0.00%-3.14%-0.56% · 13h-0.56% · 13h-0.56%13h0.12% · 14h0.12% · 14h0.12%14h0.23% · 15h0.23% · 15h0.23%15h0.04% · 16h0.04% · 16h0.04%16h-0.96% · 17h-0.96% · 17h-0.96%17h-0.08% · 18h-0.08% · 18h-0.08%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h0.01% · 20h0.01% · 20h0.01%20h0.13% · 21h0.13% · 21h0.13%21h-0.30% · 22h-0.30% · 22h-0.30%22h0.64% · 23h0.64% · 23h0.64%23h-1.28% · 00h-1.28% · 00h-1.28%00h▼ WORST-0.43% · 01h-0.43% · 01h-0.43%01h0.56% · 02h0.56% · 02h0.56%02h0.42% · 03h0.42% · 03h0.42%03h-0.85% · 04h-0.85% · 04h-0.85%04h-0.70% · 05h-0.70% · 05h-0.70%05h-0.37% · 06h-0.37% · 06h-0.37%06h0.80% · 07h0.80% · 07h0.80%07h★ BEST-0.33% · 08h-0.33% · 08h-0.33%08h0.46% · 09h0.46% · 09h0.46%09h-0.16% · 10h-0.16% · 10h-0.16%10h-0.57% · 11h-0.57% · 11h-0.57%11h0.11% · 12h0.11% · 12h0.11%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.28%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 0.80% · worst -1.28% · typical |Δ| 0.431%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.81%)FINAL-2.81%MAX DD-3.11%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9719 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9689, 1.0000]1.00000.9689break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.11% · moderate0%-3.11%▼ TROUGH -3.11%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.11%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.11%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9719 (-2.81%) · max DD -3.11% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-16.96 · σ=18.40UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 9.64 (+1.45σ vs μ)48.3624.180.00-24.18-48.36μ = -16.96-41.21-41.21-14.18-14.18-18.17-18.17-22.60-22.60-34.63-34.6331.0931.09-13.18-13.18-29.74-29.74-14.61-14.61-7.79-7.79-17.72-17.72-48.36-48.36-36.15-36.15-2.94-2.94-24.65-24.65-23.65-23.65-8.47-8.47-4.99-4.999.649.64v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.641 · range [-48.36, 31.09] · μ -16.963 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=54.5111 · σ=12.5630 · range [30.0386, 76.0917] · R²=0.187▲ RISING +10.24%σ EXTREME 23.05%LAST 47.643276.091764.578453.065141.551930.0386μ = 54.5111max 76.0917min 30.0386dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 47.64% · range [30.04%, 76.09%] · μ 54.51% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.156 · σ=0.225MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.330 (-0.77σ vs μ)0.5160.2580.000-0.258-0.516μ = -0.156-0.134-0.1340.0020.002-0.039-0.039-0.071-0.0710.0500.050-0.516-0.516-0.468-0.468-0.339-0.339-0.352-0.352-0.179-0.179-0.232-0.2320.1980.1980.1830.1830.1630.163-0.135-0.1350.0100.010-0.310-0.310-0.467-0.467-0.330-0.330v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.330 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5557
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7574
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.2554
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2011
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5096
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8765
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0047
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3694
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1709
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.583 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.81e-5 · top T=4.00h (23.5%) · top-3 cover 58.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.9e-56.0e-54.0e-52.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.44e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.44e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.86e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.86e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.43e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.43e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.54e-5 · 22.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.54e-5 · 22.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.94e-5 · 23.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.94e-5 · 23.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.96e-5 · 11.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.96e-5 · 11.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.93e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.93e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.23e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.23e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.37e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.37e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.18e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.18e-5 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.09e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.09e-5 · 6.2% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 23.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.373e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-57.62×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -28.08400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -28.08
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -31.49σ ann 55% · Sortino -26.65 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3779%-3010%-2241%-1472%-703%66%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)54.7%Ann. vol σ-3149.0%Sharpe (ann)-2664.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0510.0520.0530.0540.0550.056t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:46 UTC
Snapshot age
5.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:52 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
61d68d7aeb97ad2ed1637eb28b62bd91d4d75cfd989315eb2a4e51f9e77ee62e · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.56K
bid $2.99K · ask $3.57K
Depth within 10bp
$33.66K
bid $15.10K · ask $18.55K
Depth within 50bp
$63.91K
bid $32.22K · ask $31.69K
Mid price
0.053158
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.009
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.337
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sei/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0531661.44bp0.0531662FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0531834.77bp0.05319610FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0532048.70bp0.05323220PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0531481.91bp0.0531392FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0531314.99bp0.05312010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0531059.88bp0.05307320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-sei/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$9.92M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sei/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · -0.012 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.77M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.89M
real volume
Net delta
$116.87K
sellers net
Imbalance
-1.21%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
1.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sei/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.90% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.054026→0.0529981.903%3
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.054415→0.0534941.693%3
#32026-06-13 17:00:00Z2.0h0.054590→0.0540231.039%3

/api/asset/hl-sei/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
54.65%
σ per bar = 0.000238
Mean return (annualised)
-1721.07%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-31.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.18%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 1881 bars

/api/asset/hl-sei/risk · same metrics, JSON