HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

SAND

SAND-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-sand · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.74%
realized vol (ann.)
30.36%
max drawdown
0.84%
sharpe
31.60
ulcer index
0.50%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1909.89
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.05
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
1174.12
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.05
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.74%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-8.45%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 39%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-sand/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH414ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.052
24h Δ · live
-0.74%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
SAND · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0520 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0515, 0.0524] · R²=0.189▼ FALLING -0.71%σ LOW 0.42%LAST 0.05180.05240.05220.05200.05170.0515μ = 0.0520max 0.0524min 0.0515dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.05
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.5%Short fee 52.5%SHORT FEE52.5%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.5%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.5%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000964% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,851,746 · μ=74069.8 · σ=94072.8 · CV=1.27BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=90120,949241,898362,846483,795μ = 74070483,79550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 483795 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
414ms
$mark $
$0.0519
$mid $
$0.0519
◉prev-day close
$0.0523
Δ24h Δ %
-0.737%
$24h vol $
$95.60k
◐open interest $
$372.43k
%funding (1h)
-0.000964%
%funding (yr)
-8.45%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0520 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0515, 0.0524] · R²=0.189▼ FALLING -0.71%σ LOW 0.42%LAST 0.05180.05240.05220.05200.05170.0515μ = 0.0520max 0.0524min 0.0515dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0519 · 24h -0.74% · range $[0.0515, 0.0524]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0515, 0.0525] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=53%BEARISH -0.47%CLOSE 0.0518 vs OPEN 0.0521 (-0.47%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.05180.05250.05230.05200.05180.0515μ close = 0.0520O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.24%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.24%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.20%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.20%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.51%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.51%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.26%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.13%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.13%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.53%)O0.052 H0.053 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.53%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.64%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.64%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.38%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.38%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.31%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.31%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.29%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.29%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.25%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.25%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.14%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.86%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.86%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.55%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.55%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.11%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.11%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.21%)0.9%O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.94%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (+0.94%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.44%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.44%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.17%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.17%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.22%)O0.052 H0.052 L0.052 C0.052 (-0.22%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,851,746 · μ=74069.8 · σ=94072.8 · CV=1.27BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=90120,949241,898362,846483,795μ = 7407030,983 · 6.4% peak30,983 · 6.4% peak35,536 · 7.3% peak35,536 · 7.3% peak36,441 · 7.5% peak36,441 · 7.5% peak54,716 · 11.3% peak54,716 · 11.3% peak143,832 · 29.7% peak143,832 · 29.7% peak24,747 · 5.1% peak24,747 · 5.1% peak26,210 · 5.4% peak26,210 · 5.4% peak483,795483,795 · 100.0% peak483,795 · 100.0% peak105,607 · 21.8% peak105,607 · 21.8% peak57,231 · 11.8% peak57,231 · 11.8% peak133,191 · 27.5% peak133,191 · 27.5% peak35,292 · 7.3% peak35,292 · 7.3% peak148,931 · 30.8% peak148,931 · 30.8% peak48,368 · 10.0% peak48,368 · 10.0% peak112,895 · 23.3% peak112,895 · 23.3% peak36,365 · 7.5% peak36,365 · 7.5% peak35,207 · 7.3% peak35,207 · 7.3% peak37,739 · 7.8% peak37,739 · 7.8% peak36,707 · 7.6% peak36,707 · 7.6% peak63,120 · 13.0% peak63,120 · 13.0% peak51,048 · 10.6% peak51,048 · 10.6% peak16,873 · 3.5% peak16,873 · 3.5% peak27,939 · 5.8% peak27,939 · 5.8% peak55,883 · 11.6% peak55,883 · 11.6% peak13,090 · 2.7% peak13,090 · 2.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1851746 · peak 483795 · CV 1.27

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0041 · skew=0.11 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.50 (mesokurtic)75420 1-83.38bpbin -83.38bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -83.38bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-68.19bpbin -68.19bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -68.19bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-53.00bpbin -53.00bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -53.00bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-37.82bpbin -37.82bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -37.82bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 7-22.63bpbin -22.63bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -22.63bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 1-7.44bpbin -7.44bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -7.44bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 17.75bpbin 7.75bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 7.75bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 522.93bpbin 22.93bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 22.93bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 338.12bpbin 38.12bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 38.12bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak53.31bp 168.49bpbin 68.49bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 68.49bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 183.68bpbin 83.68bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 83.68bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.15 · kurt=-0.12 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0519
Mid price
$0.0519
24h change
-0.74%
Mark–mid spread
1.35 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0523

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0520$95% CI: [0.0519$, 0.0521$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.42%
med MEDIAN0.0520$Q₁ 0.0519$ · Q₃ 0.0522$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0008$ · IQR 0.0003$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0515$Q₁ 0.0519$med 0.0520$Q₃ 0.0522$max 0.0524$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.374approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.834mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.79
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-6.63
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.029548%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.071
σᵣ STD / h0.417228%σ²ᵣ = 0.174×10⁻⁴ · CV = 14.12×
σ ANNUALISED39.05%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.417%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-6.63negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-6.80downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.16approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.14mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.03
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-258.84%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.62%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.621%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.848%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.775%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.60%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.621%VaR₉₉−0.848%ES₉₅−0.775%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK5.24$
−1.60% drawdown over 10h
5.15$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.37× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.62% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.351 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0524
Bollinger MA
$0.0520
Bollinger lower
$0.0515

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.279within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.129lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.720strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.311significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.720
H = 0.720STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.279k=2+0.129k=3-0.366k=4+0.212k=5 ★-0.4080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.72very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$95.60k
Open interest (USD)
$372.43k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.26x
1h funding
-0.000964%
Funding (annualised)
-8.45%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.91% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.35%MILD BEARISH -0.71%BEST+0.91%09hWORST-0.91%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.35%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.71%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.34%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.76%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.12%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.71%+0.29%-1.32%-0.28% · 13h-0.28% · 13h-0.28%13h0.26% · 14h0.26% · 14h0.26%14h0.17% · 15h0.17% · 15h0.17%15h-0.51% · 16h-0.51% · 16h-0.51%16h-0.18% · 17h-0.18% · 17h-0.18%17h-0.24% · 18h-0.24% · 18h-0.24%18h0.26% · 19h0.26% · 19h0.26%19h0.16% · 20h0.16% · 20h0.16%20h0.65% · 21h0.65% · 21h0.65%21h-0.64% · 22h-0.64% · 22h-0.64%22h0.37% · 23h0.37% · 23h0.37%23h-0.18% · 00h-0.18% · 00h-0.18%00h0.36% · 01h0.36% · 01h0.36%01h-0.29% · 02h-0.29% · 02h-0.29%02h0.11% · 03h0.11% · 03h0.11%03h-0.91% · 04h-0.91% · 04h-0.91%04h▼ WORST0.22% · 05h0.22% · 05h0.22%05h-0.40% · 06h-0.40% · 06h-0.40%06h-0.26% · 07h-0.26% · 07h-0.26%07h0.31% · 08h0.31% · 08h0.31%08h0.91% · 09h0.91% · 09h0.91%09h★ BEST-0.31% · 10h-0.31% · 10h-0.31%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11h-0.16% · 12h-0.16% · 12h-0.16%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.76%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.91% · worst -0.91% · typical |Δ| 0.345%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.73%)FINAL-0.73%MAX DD-1.61%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.28%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9927 · peak 1.0028 · range [0.9867, 1.0028]1.00280.9867break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0028UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.61% · moderate0%-1.61%▼ TROUGH -1.61%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.61%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.93%bar 5-9 · 5 bars · recovered#3 -0.28%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.61%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9927 (-0.73%) · max DD -1.61% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-7.16 · σ=23.01MIXED EDGELAST 11.60 (+0.82σ vs μ)59.2729.640.00-29.64-59.27μ = -7.16-42.35-42.35-12.24-12.24-17.69-17.695.285.280.530.5319.1319.1321.7121.7124.6724.678.838.83-10.23-10.23-17.08-17.08-23.35-23.35-29.80-29.80-59.27-59.27-31.22-31.22-3.00-3.0014.9214.923.523.5211.6011.60v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 11.597 · range [-59.27, 24.67] · μ -7.160 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.6324 · σ=7.4823 · range [27.1737, 59.5969] · R²=0.492▲ RISING +62.91%σ EXTREME 17.97%LAST 44.268259.596951.491143.385335.279527.1737μ = 41.6324max 59.5969min 27.1737dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.49μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 44.27% · range [27.17%, 59.60%] · μ 41.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.331 · σ=0.324MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.050 (+0.86σ vs μ)0.7780.3890.000-0.389-0.778μ = -0.331-0.073-0.073-0.010-0.010-0.028-0.0280.2530.253-0.284-0.284-0.578-0.578-0.621-0.621-0.672-0.672-0.737-0.737-0.625-0.625-0.320-0.320-0.566-0.566-0.603-0.603-0.778-0.778-0.558-0.5580.0090.009-0.089-0.0890.0460.046-0.050-0.050v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.050 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1193
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9421
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
13.4350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0196
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6504
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0861
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3102
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1643
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7623
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4459
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.768 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.12e-5 · top T=2.00h (42.6%) · top-3 cover 71.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-48.1e-55.4e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.61e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.61e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.79e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.79e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.34e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.48e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.48e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.30e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.30e-6 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.70e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.70e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.93e-5 · 15.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.65e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.65e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.89e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.89e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.11e-5 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 42.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 42.6% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 42.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.544e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-73.71×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -26.16400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.011
annualized -26.16
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -681% · APY -100% · Sharpe -22.40σ ann 30% · Sortino -16.89 · n 4999
-2689%-2144%-1599%-1054%-509%36%-681.0%APR (simple)-99.9%APY (compound)30.4%Ann. vol σ-2240.4%Sharpe (ann)-1688.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0490.0500.0510.0520.0530.054t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Snapshot age
414ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:18:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7dfebb5ae145c6cb50616017b97810fe2bf5d3691be9a7948f6ec8c24ab5df26 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$5.16K
bid $2.69K · ask $2.47K
Depth within 10bp
$8.34K
bid $4.11K · ask $4.23K
Depth within 50bp
$20.84K
bid $11.66K · ask $9.17K
Mid price
0.051887
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.152
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.518
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sand/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0518971.95bp0.0519092FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05201424.48bp0.05247112FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.052952205.33bp0.05460920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0518742.47bp0.0518654FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.05181314.09bp0.05175812FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.051325108.15bp0.05065720PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-9.644e-6
-0.00096% / hr
Annualised APR
-8.454%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
43.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
43.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE8.454%43.2d1.18y
SHORTPAY-8.454%43.2d1.18y

/api/asset/hl-sand/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.85M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-sand/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.058 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$963.48K
real volume
Sell weight
$857.29K
real volume
Net delta
$106.19K
buyers net
Imbalance
5.83%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-sand/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.52% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.052326→0.0515331.515%4
#22026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.052295→0.0518080.931%3
#32026-06-13 22:00:00Z0ms0.052369→0.0520350.638%1

/api/asset/hl-sand/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
30.40%
σ per bar = 0.000133
Mean return (annualised)
-681.01%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-22.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.46%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 2394 bars

/api/asset/hl-sand/risk · same metrics, JSON