HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

S

S-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-s · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.77%
realized vol (ann.)
47.68%
max drawdown
0.88%
sharpe
-32.31
ulcer index
0.45%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3421.10
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.79%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.94
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1951.56
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.94
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.77%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.77%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.3bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-s/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH357ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.030
24h Δ · live
-2.77%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
S · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0306 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0301, 0.0310] · R²=0.920▼ FALLING -2.48%σ LOW 0.94%LAST 0.03010.03100.03070.03050.03030.0301μ = 0.0306max 0.0310min 0.0301dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=4,002,770 · μ=160110.8 · σ=78706.3 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12084,440168,881253,321337,761μ = 160111337,76150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 337761 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
357ms
$mark $
$0.0301
$mid $
$0.0301
◉prev-day close
$0.031
Δ24h Δ %
-2.767%
$24h vol $
$117.82k
◐open interest $
$679.95k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0306 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0301, 0.0310] · R²=0.920▼ FALLING -2.48%σ LOW 0.94%LAST 0.03010.03100.03070.03050.03030.0301μ = 0.0306max 0.0310min 0.0301dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.92μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0301 · 24h -2.77% · range $[0.0301, 0.0310]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.0300, 0.0311] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=39%BEARISH -3.04%CLOSE 0.0301 vs OPEN 0.0311 (-3.04%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03010.03110.03090.03060.03030.0300μ close = 0.0306O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.58%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.58%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.39%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.39%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.14%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.14%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.25%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.25%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.13%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.13%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.45%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.46%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.46%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.41%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.41%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.32%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.32%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.29%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.29%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.04%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.04%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.64%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.64%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.20%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (+0.20%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.24%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.031 C0.031 (-0.24%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.031 (+0.14%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.031 (+0.14%)-0.8%O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.75%)O0.031 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.75%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.07%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.07%)O0.030 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.45%)O0.030 H0.031 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.45%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.14%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.30%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.30%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.10%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.10%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.48%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.48%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.17%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (+0.17%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.02%)O0.030 H0.030 L0.030 C0.030 (-0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=4,002,770 · μ=160110.8 · σ=78706.3 · CV=0.49STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=12084,440168,881253,321337,761μ = 160111187,434 · 55.5% peak187,434 · 55.5% peak188,785 · 55.9% peak188,785 · 55.9% peak102,094 · 30.2% peak102,094 · 30.2% peak94,421 · 28.0% peak94,421 · 28.0% peak106,568 · 31.6% peak106,568 · 31.6% peak307,643 · 91.1% peak307,643 · 91.1% peak321,065 · 95.1% peak321,065 · 95.1% peak104,630 · 31.0% peak104,630 · 31.0% peak114,115 · 33.8% peak114,115 · 33.8% peak48,987 · 14.5% peak48,987 · 14.5% peak337,761337,761 · 100.0% peak337,761 · 100.0% peak168,989 · 50.0% peak168,989 · 50.0% peak212,478 · 62.9% peak212,478 · 62.9% peak103,190 · 30.6% peak103,190 · 30.6% peak130,806 · 38.7% peak130,806 · 38.7% peak40,188 · 11.9% peak40,188 · 11.9% peak110,459 · 32.7% peak110,459 · 32.7% peak136,316 · 40.4% peak136,316 · 40.4% peak243,428 · 72.1% peak243,428 · 72.1% peak170,064 · 50.4% peak170,064 · 50.4% peak95,553 · 28.3% peak95,553 · 28.3% peak215,587 · 63.8% peak215,587 · 63.8% peak142,272 · 42.1% peak142,272 · 42.1% peak139,419 · 41.3% peak139,419 · 41.3% peak180,518 · 53.4% peak180,518 · 53.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 4002770 · peak 337761 · CV 0.49

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0010 · σ=0.0031 · skew=-0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.00 (mesokurtic)43210 2-65.14bpbin -65.14bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -65.14bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-55.57bpbin -55.57bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -55.57bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-46.01bp 3-36.45bpbin -36.45bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -36.45bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 1-26.89bpbin -26.89bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -26.89bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-17.33bpbin -17.33bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -17.33bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-7.77bpbin -7.77bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -7.77bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 21.80bpbin 1.80bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 1.80bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 211.36bpbin 11.36bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 11.36bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 220.92bpbin 20.92bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 20.92bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 330.48bpbin 30.48bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 30.48bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 140.04bpbin 40.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 40.04bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.18 · kurt=-1.01 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0301
Mid price
$0.0301
24h change
-2.77%
Mark–mid spread
0.33 bps
Prev-day close
$0.031

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.49)
μ MEAN0.0306$95% CI: [0.0305$, 0.0307$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.94%
med MEDIAN0.0306$Q₁ 0.0303$ · Q₃ 0.0308$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0009$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0004$)
min 0.0301$Q₁ 0.0303$med 0.0306$Q₃ 0.0308$max 0.0310$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.314approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.487platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.97
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-29.92
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.104522%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.320
σᵣ STD / h0.326934%σ²ᵣ = 0.107×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.13×
σ ANNUALISED30.60%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.327%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-29.92negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-25.11downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.20approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.96mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.84
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-915.61%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.62%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.620%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.683%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.665%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.77%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.620%VaR₉₉−0.683%ES₉₅−0.665%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK3.10$
−2.77% drawdown over 19h
3.01$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.85% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
30.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.141 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0310
Bollinger MA
$0.0305
Bollinger lower
$0.0300

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.60 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.600negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.391lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.857strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-16.264significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.857
H = 0.857STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..54 SIGNIFICANT LAGS · multi-lag dependence
k=1 ★-0.600k=2+0.391k=3-0.445k=4+0.458k=5-0.4840+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.26)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.60 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=16.26)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$117.82k
Open interest (USD)
$679.95k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.17x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.28%MILD BEARISH -2.51%BEST+0.45%19hWORST-0.70%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.28%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.51%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.22% · Σ -1.77%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.03%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.71%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.51%+0.25%-2.56%0.16% · 13h0.16% · 13h0.16%13h-0.11% · 14h-0.11% · 14h-0.11%14h0.20% · 15h0.20% · 15h0.20%15h-0.41% · 16h-0.41% · 16h-0.41%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.52% · 18h-0.52% · 18h-0.52%18h0.45% · 19h0.45% · 19h0.45%19h★ BEST-0.40% · 20h-0.40% · 20h-0.40%20h0.31% · 21h0.31% · 21h0.31%21h-0.24% · 22h-0.24% · 22h-0.24%22h-0.04% · 23h-0.04% · 23h-0.04%23h-0.63% · 00h-0.63% · 00h-0.63%00h0.29% · 01h0.29% · 01h0.29%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h0.01% · 03h0.01% · 03h0.01%03h-0.70% · 04h-0.70% · 04h-0.70%04h▼ WORST0.05% · 05h0.05% · 05h0.05%05h-0.40% · 06h-0.40% · 06h-0.40%06h-0.17% · 07h-0.17% · 07h-0.17%07h0.32% · 08h0.32% · 08h0.32%08h-0.09% · 09h-0.09% · 09h-0.09%09h-0.57% · 10h-0.57% · 10h-0.57%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.03%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.278%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.49%)FINAL-2.49%MAX DD-2.78%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.25%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9751 · peak 1.0025 · range [0.9746, 1.0025]1.00250.9746break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0025UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.78% · moderate0%-2.78%▼ TROUGH -2.78%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.78%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.11%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.78%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9751 (-2.49%) · max DD -2.78% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-32.74 · σ=17.18UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -23.31 (+0.55σ vs μ)80.1040.050.00-40.05-80.10μ = -32.74-26.36-26.36-10.11-10.11-20.37-20.37-15.79-15.79-10.09-10.09-17.96-17.96-21.03-21.03-29.87-29.87-23.49-23.49-42.44-42.44-52.35-52.35-47.41-47.41-42.75-42.75-80.10-80.10-38.43-38.43-43.14-43.14-41.77-41.77-35.26-35.26-23.31-23.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -23.308 · range [-80.10, -10.09] · μ -32.737 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=33.6108 · σ=3.8268 · range [26.0075, 39.2207] · R²=0.265▼ FALLING -3.02%σ HIGH 11.39%LAST 28.431739.220735.917432.614129.310826.0075μ = 33.6108max 39.2207min 26.0075dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.27μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 28.43% · range [26.01%, 39.22%] · μ 33.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.547 · σ=0.223MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.334 (+0.95σ vs μ)0.8740.4370.000-0.437-0.874μ = -0.547-0.578-0.578-0.710-0.710-0.821-0.821-0.789-0.789-0.874-0.874-0.793-0.793-0.443-0.443-0.606-0.606-0.544-0.544-0.658-0.658-0.522-0.522-0.574-0.574-0.458-0.458-0.767-0.767-0.381-0.381-0.203-0.203-0.106-0.106-0.234-0.234-0.334-0.334v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.334 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0696
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5858
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
34.2390
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.3798
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9081
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
3.1527
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0016
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (20 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8922
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0043
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7420
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0815
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.470 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.54e-5 · top T=2.00h (66.5%) · top-3 cover 81.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.2e-49.2e-56.1e-53.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.96e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.96e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.60e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.60e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.31e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.31e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.25e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.20e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.20e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.82e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.82e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.46e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.15e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.15e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.51e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.51e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.58e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.17e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.17e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 66.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 66.5% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 66.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.842e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-65.75×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -36.39400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.016
annualized -36.39
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -32.03σ ann 49% · Sortino -19.67 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3843%-3063%-2283%-1502%-722%58%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)48.7%Ann. vol σ-3202.8%Sharpe (ann)-1967.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0290.0290.0300.0310.0310.032t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:52 UTC
Snapshot age
357ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:52 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4a5e1f505a988f28008f924768a4d79f7c8c2656350f65260a946b5f6fd8d42a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?17¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,469HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$61.03

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.00K
bid $910 · ask $1.10K
Depth within 10bp
$10.79K
bid $6.55K · ask $4.25K
Depth within 50bp
$64.72K
bid $33.81K · ask $30.91K
Mid price
0.030121
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.024
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.043
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-s/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0301302.74bp0.0301363FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03015711.93bp0.03017511FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03019825.53bp0.03027420PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0301132.73bp0.0301053FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0300958.94bp0.03006611FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03005821.24bp0.03000320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-s/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$4.00M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-s/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.340 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.26M
real volume
Sell weight
$2.56M
real volume
Net delta
$1.30M
sellers net
Imbalance
-34.00%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
34.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-s/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.42% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.030634→0.0302001.417%4
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z0ms0.030827→0.0305460.912%1
#32026-06-13 18:00:00Z0ms0.030958→0.0307170.778%1

/api/asset/hl-s/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
48.71%
σ per bar = 0.000212
Mean return (annualised)
-1560.02%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.85%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 4425 bars

/api/asset/hl-s/risk · same metrics, JSON