HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RSR

RSR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rsr · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 1.61%
realized vol (ann.)
72.52%
max drawdown
1.50%
sharpe
13.06
ulcer index
0.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1310.65
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.34%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.03
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
704.76
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.03
upside/downside
roll spread
1.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
1.61%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 32%
  • 24h change +1.61%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 7.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-rsr/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
1.61%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
RSR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · R²=0.081▲ RISING +0.44%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ = 0.0014max 0.0014min 0.0014dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=66,555,984 · μ=2662239.4 · σ=4616211.5 · CV=1.73BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1204,425,7748,851,54813,277,32217,703,096μ = 266223917,703,09650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 17703096 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.8s
$mark $
$0.0014
$mid $
$0.0014
◉prev-day close
$0.0014
Δ24h Δ %
+1.608%
$24h vol $
$92.58k
◐open interest $
$172.90k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0014 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · R²=0.081▲ RISING +0.44%σ LOW 0.78%LAST 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ = 0.0014max 0.0014min 0.0014dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0014 · 24h 1.61% · range $[0.0014, 0.0014]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0014, 0.0014] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=53%BULLISH +1.17%CLOSE 0.0014 vs OPEN 0.0014 (+1.17%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00140.00140.00140.00140.00140.0014μ close = 0.0014O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.73%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.73%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.29%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.29%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.66%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.66%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.94%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.94%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.22%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)2.7%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+2.68%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.27%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.27%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.78%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.36%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-1.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.50%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.50%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.14%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.57%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.57%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=66,555,984 · μ=2662239.4 · σ=4616211.5 · CV=1.73BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1204,425,7748,851,54813,277,32217,703,096μ = 26622392,570,184 · 14.5% peak2,570,184 · 14.5% peak10,567,349 · 59.7% peak10,567,349 · 59.7% peak1,487,127 · 8.4% peak1,487,127 · 8.4% peak2,042,222 · 11.5% peak2,042,222 · 11.5% peak306,454 · 1.7% peak306,454 · 1.7% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak877,899 · 5.0% peak877,899 · 5.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak197,909 · 1.1% peak197,909 · 1.1% peak13,897,317 · 78.5% peak13,897,317 · 78.5% peak3,857,745 · 21.8% peak3,857,745 · 21.8% peak3,852,310 · 21.8% peak3,852,310 · 21.8% peak499,428 · 2.8% peak499,428 · 2.8% peak1,078,463 · 6.1% peak1,078,463 · 6.1% peak230,193 · 1.3% peak230,193 · 1.3% peak2,810,489 · 15.9% peak2,810,489 · 15.9% peak80,645 · 0.5% peak80,645 · 0.5% peak288,882 · 1.6% peak288,882 · 1.6% peak4,164,118 · 23.5% peak4,164,118 · 23.5% peak35,698 · 0.2% peak35,698 · 0.2% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak17,703,09617,703,096 · 100.0% peak17,703,096 · 100.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak8,456 · 0.0% peak8,456 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 66555984 · peak 17703096 · CV 1.73

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0069 · skew=0.79 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.23 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 2-100.97bpbin -100.97bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -100.97bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2-72.35bpbin -72.35bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -72.35bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 3-43.74bpbin -43.74bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -43.74bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 3-15.13bpbin -15.13bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -15.13bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 713.49bpbin 13.49bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 13.49bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 142.10bpbin 42.10bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 42.10bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 470.72bpbin 70.72bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 70.72bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 199.33bpbin 99.33bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 99.33bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak127.94bp156.56bp185.17bp 1213.79bpbin 213.79bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 213.79bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.98 · kurt=1.91 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00MODERATE DEPARTURE · SOME OUTLIERSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0014
Mid price
$0.0014
24h change
+1.61%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0014

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.92)
μ MEAN0.0014$95% CI: [0.0014$, 0.0014$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.78%
med MEDIAN0.0014$Q₁ 0.0014$ · Q₃ 0.0014$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0014$Q₁ 0.0014$med 0.0014$Q₃ 0.0014$max 0.0014$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.918right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.691mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.13
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.52
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCELLENT · SR=2.30
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.018103%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.025
σᵣ STD / h0.738055%σ²ᵣ = 0.545×10⁻⁴ · CV = 40.77×
σ ANNUALISED69.08%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.738%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)2.30excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)2.49strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)52.33exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.04right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.68leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 1.09
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 52.33
EXPECTED EDGE+158.58%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.09%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.094%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.148%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.143%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.03%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.094%VaR₉₉−1.148%ES₉₅−1.143%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK0.14$
−3.03% drawdown over 7h
0.14$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.12% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
50.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.377 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0014
Bollinger MA
$0.0014
Bollinger lower
$0.0014

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.148within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.248lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.705strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.420fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.705
H = 0.705STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.148k=2-0.248k=3+0.089k=4-0.072k=5+0.0760+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.42)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.56high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.42)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$92.58k
Open interest (USD)
$172.90k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.54x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
3.323× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
1.662× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
0.831×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.51%MILD BULLISH +0.43%BEST+2.28%22hWORST-1.15%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.51%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.43%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.21% · Σ -1.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.23%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.11% · Σ +0.86%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.43%+2.93%-0.58%-0.58% · 13h-0.58% · 13h-0.58%13h0.65% · 14h0.65% · 14h0.65%14h0.87% · 15h0.87% · 15h0.87%15h-0.87% · 16h-0.87% · 16h-0.87%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.58% · 21h0.58% · 21h0.58%21h2.28% · 22h2.28% · 22h2.28%22h★ BEST-1.13% · 23h-1.13% · 23h-1.13%23h-0.50% · 00h-0.50% · 00h-0.50%00h0.36% · 01h0.36% · 01h0.36%01h-0.21% · 02h-0.21% · 02h-0.21%02h-0.14% · 03h-0.14% · 03h-0.14%03h-1.15% · 04h-1.15% · 04h-1.15%04h▼ WORST-0.29% · 05h-0.29% · 05h-0.29%05h0.72% · 06h0.72% · 06h0.72%06h-0.43% · 07h-0.43% · 07h-0.43%07h0.72% · 08h0.72% · 08h0.72%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.58% · 12h-0.58% · 12h-0.58%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.23%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 42% down · 25% flat
8 up bars · 10 down · best 2.28% · worst -1.15% · typical |Δ| 0.509%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.37%FINAL+0.37%MAX DD-3.05%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.94%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0037 · peak 1.0294 · range [0.9942, 1.0294]1.02940.9942break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0294UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.05% · moderate0%-3.05%▼ TROUGH -3.05%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -3.05%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.87%bar 5-10 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.58%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.05%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0037 (0.37%) · max DD -3.05% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-0.25 · σ=31.60MIXED EDGELAST -4.89 (-0.15σ vs μ)73.1836.590.00-36.59-73.18μ = -0.251.681.6816.7516.750.000.00-9.70-9.7048.8148.8123.9323.9316.3616.3621.2021.2018.1318.138.618.61-73.18-73.18-61.16-61.16-17.53-17.53-39.14-39.14-12.38-12.38-9.29-9.2927.4127.4139.7039.70-4.89-4.89v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -4.895 · range [-73.18, 48.81] · μ -0.247 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=69.9485 · σ=25.9692 · range [42.5172, 110.2273] · R²=0.092▼ FALLING -31.67%σ EXTREME 37.13%LAST 43.0727110.227393.299876.372359.444742.5172μ = 69.9485max 110.2273min 42.5172dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 43.07% · range [42.52%, 110.23%] · μ 69.95% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.226 · σ=0.247MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.277 (-0.21σ vs μ)0.8280.4140.000-0.414-0.828μ = -0.226-0.252-0.252-0.105-0.105-0.500-0.500-0.002-0.0020.1960.196-0.343-0.343-0.160-0.160-0.187-0.187-0.178-0.178-0.305-0.3050.0340.034-0.166-0.1660.0070.007-0.151-0.151-0.175-0.175-0.174-0.174-0.828-0.828-0.725-0.725-0.277-0.277v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.277 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
11.5417
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.9348
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7126
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5712
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0998
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5471
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5843
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0451
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1122
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2661
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.662 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.29e-5 · top T=4.00h (23.9%) · top-3 cover 53.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.6e-53.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.91e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.91e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.00e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.00e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.77e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.77e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.86e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.52e-4 · 23.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.52e-4 · 23.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.52e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.52e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.07e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.07e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.19e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.19e-5 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.74e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.74e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.53e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.53e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.66e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.66e-5 · 2.6% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 23.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.347e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -9.04× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-9.04×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -9.38400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.004
annualized -9.38
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -453% · APY -99% · Sharpe -6.40σ ann 71% · Sortino -2.48 · n 4999
-768%-597%-427%-256%-86%85%-453.0%APR (simple)-99.2%APY (compound)70.8%Ann. vol σ-639.9%Sharpe (ann)-248.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
1.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
cc76e166135e9355f248a636b184b6ac90ac4b6d4759abcbbb4c3573f59cbc44 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$18.23K
bid $4.23K · ask $14.00K
Mid price
0.001390
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
28.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.043
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.415
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rsr/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00139214.39bp0.0013921FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00139425.66bp0.0013943FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.001418199.84bp0.00147820PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00138814.39bp0.0013881FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00138163.92bp0.0013638FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.001343337.09bp0.00066819PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-rsr/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$66.56M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-rsr/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.130 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$36.15M
real volume
Sell weight
$27.83M
real volume
Net delta
$8.32M
buyers net
Imbalance
13.00%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-rsr/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.78% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.001401→0.0013761.784%3
#22026-06-13 23:00:00Z2.0h0.001419→0.0013961.621%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z2.0h0.001391→0.0013790.863%3

/api/asset/hl-rsr/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.80%
σ per bar = 0.000309
Mean return (annualised)
-453.03%
μ per bar = -0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.65%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 770 bars

/api/asset/hl-rsr/risk · same metrics, JSON