HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RENDER

RENDER-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-render · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.72%
realized vol (ann.)
71.31%
max drawdown
3.17%
sharpe
-112.68
ulcer index
1.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4663.55
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.84
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2676.47
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.84
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.72%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.72%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 6.0bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-render/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH421ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$1.737
24h Δ · live
-3.72%
24h vol · live
$1.8M
RENDER · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=1.7697 · σ=0.0155 · range [1.7366, 1.8060] · R²=0.160▼ FALLING -3.20%σ LOW 0.88%LAST 1.73661.80601.78871.77131.75391.7366μ = 1.7697max 1.8060min 1.7366dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $1.74
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,016,187 · μ=40647.5 · σ=49262.4 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15055,442110,885166,327221,769μ = 40647221,769.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 221769 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
421ms
$mark $
$1.7367
$mid $
$1.7367
◉prev-day close
$1.8038
Δ24h Δ %
-3.723%
$24h vol $
$1.76M
◐open interest $
$2.13M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=1.7697 · σ=0.0155 · range [1.7366, 1.8060] · R²=0.160▼ FALLING -3.20%σ LOW 0.88%LAST 1.73661.80601.78871.77131.75391.7366μ = 1.7697max 1.8060min 1.7366dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.16μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $1.7367 · 24h -3.72% · range $[1.7366, 1.8060]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [1.7366, 1.8155] · σ=0.0155 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -1.99%CLOSE 1.7366 vs OPEN 1.7719 (-1.99%)&#9660; CLOSE 1.73661.81551.79581.77601.75631.7366μ close = 1.7697O1.772 H1.806 L1.770 C1.794 (+1.25%)O1.772 H1.806 L1.770 C1.794 (+1.25%)O1.794 H1.806 L1.783 C1.806 (+0.65%)O1.794 H1.806 L1.783 C1.806 (+0.65%)O1.806 H1.815 L1.775 C1.793 (-0.74%)O1.806 H1.815 L1.775 C1.793 (-0.74%)O1.789 H1.789 L1.747 C1.765 (-1.34%)O1.789 H1.789 L1.747 C1.765 (-1.34%)O1.768 H1.786 L1.755 C1.760 (-0.43%)O1.768 H1.786 L1.755 C1.760 (-0.43%)O1.757 H1.775 L1.742 C1.749 (-0.44%)O1.757 H1.775 L1.742 C1.749 (-0.44%)O1.751 H1.764 L1.744 C1.756 (+0.32%)O1.751 H1.764 L1.744 C1.756 (+0.32%)O1.755 H1.762 L1.751 C1.762 (+0.35%)O1.755 H1.762 L1.751 C1.762 (+0.35%)O1.762 H1.790 L1.756 C1.775 (+0.72%)O1.762 H1.790 L1.756 C1.775 (+0.72%)O1.776 H1.790 L1.771 C1.771 (-0.26%)O1.776 H1.790 L1.771 C1.771 (-0.26%)O1.771 H1.782 L1.769 C1.771 (-0.02%)O1.771 H1.782 L1.769 C1.771 (-0.02%)O1.773 H1.773 L1.758 C1.762 (-0.63%)O1.773 H1.773 L1.758 C1.762 (-0.63%)O1.763 H1.774 L1.757 C1.770 (+0.39%)O1.763 H1.774 L1.757 C1.770 (+0.39%)O1.767 H1.792 L1.763 C1.781 (+0.83%)O1.767 H1.792 L1.763 C1.781 (+0.83%)O1.780 H1.790 L1.767 C1.788 (+0.44%)O1.780 H1.790 L1.767 C1.788 (+0.44%)-1.6%O1.788 H1.789 L1.754 C1.760 (-1.55%)O1.788 H1.789 L1.754 C1.760 (-1.55%)O1.762 H1.768 L1.745 C1.766 (+0.28%)O1.762 H1.768 L1.745 C1.766 (+0.28%)O1.767 H1.791 L1.762 C1.765 (-0.09%)O1.767 H1.791 L1.762 C1.765 (-0.09%)O1.764 H1.780 L1.760 C1.774 (+0.54%)O1.764 H1.780 L1.760 C1.774 (+0.54%)O1.774 H1.786 L1.764 C1.772 (-0.15%)O1.774 H1.786 L1.764 C1.772 (-0.15%)O1.773 H1.790 L1.759 C1.786 (+0.73%)O1.773 H1.790 L1.759 C1.786 (+0.73%)O1.786 H1.806 L1.767 C1.770 (-0.88%)O1.786 H1.806 L1.767 C1.770 (-0.88%)O1.768 H1.772 L1.763 C1.763 (-0.28%)O1.768 H1.772 L1.763 C1.763 (-0.28%)O1.763 H1.766 L1.747 C1.748 (-0.86%)O1.763 H1.766 L1.747 C1.748 (-0.86%)O1.749 H1.753 L1.737 C1.737 (-0.71%)O1.749 H1.753 L1.737 C1.737 (-0.71%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,016,187 · μ=40647.5 · σ=49262.4 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=15055,442110,885166,327221,769μ = 4064750,749.3 · 22.9% peak50,749.3 · 22.9% peak48,977.6 · 22.1% peak48,977.6 · 22.1% peak128,666 · 58.0% peak128,666 · 58.0% peak48,252.6 · 21.8% peak48,252.6 · 21.8% peak47,689.3 · 21.5% peak47,689.3 · 21.5% peak36,151.4 · 16.3% peak36,151.4 · 16.3% peak18,465.7 · 8.3% peak18,465.7 · 8.3% peak12,787.6 · 5.8% peak12,787.6 · 5.8% peak44,067 · 19.9% peak44,067 · 19.9% peak21,736.2 · 9.8% peak21,736.2 · 9.8% peak2,700.3 · 1.2% peak2,700.3 · 1.2% peak8,867.2 · 4.0% peak8,867.2 · 4.0% peak11,292.6 · 5.1% peak11,292.6 · 5.1% peak8,796.2 · 4.0% peak8,796.2 · 4.0% peak124,509.8 · 56.1% peak124,509.8 · 56.1% peak7,799.6 · 3.5% peak7,799.6 · 3.5% peak32,930.3 · 14.8% peak32,930.3 · 14.8% peak12,815.6 · 5.8% peak12,815.6 · 5.8% peak11,027.2 · 5.0% peak11,027.2 · 5.0% peak25,714.1 · 11.6% peak25,714.1 · 11.6% peak23,618.1 · 10.6% peak23,618.1 · 10.6% peak221,769.1221,769.1 · 100.0% peak221,769.1 · 100.0% peak15,190.3 · 6.8% peak15,190.3 · 6.8% peak24,626.4 · 11.1% peak24,626.4 · 11.1% peak26,987.6 · 12.2% peak26,987.6 · 12.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1016187 · peak 221769 · CV 1.21

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0014 · σ=0.0065 · skew=-0.39 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.85 (mesokurtic)43210 2-145.29bpbin -145.29bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -145.29bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-125.81bp-106.33bp 2-86.85bpbin -86.85bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -86.85bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-67.38bpbin -67.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -67.38bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-47.90bpbin -47.90bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -47.90bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-28.42bpbin -28.42bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -28.42bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-8.94bpbin -8.94bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -8.94bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak10.53bp 330.01bpbin 30.01bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 30.01bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 349.49bpbin 49.49bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 49.49bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 468.97bpbin 68.97bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 68.97bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 14
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.49 · kurt=-0.66 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$1.7367
Mid price
$1.7367
24h change
-3.72%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$1.8038

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.7697$95% CI: [1.7636$, 1.7758$]
σ STD DEV0.0155$σ² = 2.406×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.88%
med MEDIAN1.7698$Q₁ 1.7615$ · Q₃ 1.7746$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0694$ · IQR 0.0131$ (1.349σ→0.0209$)
min 1.7366$Q₁ 1.7615$med 1.7698$Q₃ 1.7746$max 1.8060$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.269approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.091mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.60
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.47
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-18.51
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.135494%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.198
σᵣ STD / h0.685251%σ²ᵣ = 0.470×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.06×
σ ANNUALISED64.14%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.685%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-18.51negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-16.53downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.53left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.52mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.89
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1186.93%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.44%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.442%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.548%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.545%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.84%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.442%VaR₉₉−1.548%ES₉₅−1.545%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK180.60$
−3.84% drawdown over 23h
173.66$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.00% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
34.7 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.091 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$1.7913
Bollinger MA
$1.7662
Bollinger lower
$1.7411

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.030within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.031lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.863strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.096significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.863
H = 0.863STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.030k=2+0.031k=3-0.325k=4-0.014k=5-0.2170+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.10)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.76very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.10)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.76M
Open interest (USD)
$2.13M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.83x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.79% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.57%MILD BEARISH -3.25%BEST+0.79%09hWORST-1.55%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.57%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.16%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.19%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.23%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.25%+0.67%-3.25%0.67% · 14h0.67% · 14h0.67%14h-0.74% · 15h-0.74% · 15h-0.74%15h-1.54% · 16h-1.54% · 16h-1.54%16h-0.29% · 17h-0.29% · 17h-0.29%17h-0.64% · 18h-0.64% · 18h-0.64%18h0.42% · 19h0.42% · 19h0.42%19h0.30% · 20h0.30% · 20h0.30%20h0.74% · 21h0.74% · 21h0.74%21h-0.19% · 22h-0.19% · 22h-0.19%22h-0.03% · 23h-0.03% · 23h-0.03%23h-0.52% · 00h-0.52% · 00h-0.52%00h0.47% · 01h0.47% · 01h0.47%01h0.64% · 02h0.64% · 02h0.64%02h0.36% · 03h0.36% · 03h0.36%03h-1.55% · 04h-1.55% · 04h-1.55%04h▼ WORST0.36% · 05h0.36% · 05h0.36%05h-0.07% · 06h-0.07% · 06h-0.07%06h0.47% · 07h0.47% · 07h0.47%07h-0.10% · 08h-0.10% · 08h-0.10%08h0.79% · 09h0.79% · 09h0.79%09h★ BEST-0.88% · 10h-0.88% · 10h-0.88%10h-0.40% · 11h-0.40% · 11h-0.40%11h-0.84% · 12h-0.84% · 12h-0.84%12h-0.67% · 13h-0.67% · 13h-0.67%13hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.16%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 58% down
10 up bars · 14 down · best 0.79% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.571%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.25%)FINAL-3.25%MAX DD-3.89%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.67%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9675 · peak 1.0067 · range [0.9675, 1.0067]1.00670.9675break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0067UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.89% · moderate0%-3.89%▼ TROUGH -3.89%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.89%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.89%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9675 (-3.25%) · max DD -3.89% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-3.07 · σ=25.90MIXED EDGELAST -52.16 (-1.90σ vs μ)53.5126.750.00-26.75-53.51μ = -3.07-41.01-41.01-53.51-53.51-18.80-18.8010.2910.2919.1319.1324.6024.6026.0126.0134.2234.2225.8525.85-11.83-11.83-4.39-4.394.034.034.124.12-10.92-10.92-2.01-2.0114.9414.94-5.02-5.02-21.90-21.90-52.16-52.16v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -52.165 · range [-53.51, 34.22] · μ -3.071 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.1485 · σ=14.1672 · range [41.5355, 78.9620] · R²=0.013▼ FALLING -22.17%σ EXTREME 22.80%LAST 59.005678.962069.605360.248750.892141.5355μ = 62.1485max 78.9620min 41.5355dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 59.01% · range [41.54%, 78.96%] · μ 62.15% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.108 · σ=0.216MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.059 (+0.23σ vs μ)0.5800.2900.000-0.290-0.580μ = -0.108-0.077-0.0770.2310.2310.1850.1850.0570.057-0.159-0.1590.1100.110-0.150-0.150-0.038-0.0380.2300.230-0.051-0.051-0.234-0.234-0.183-0.183-0.277-0.277-0.457-0.457-0.216-0.216-0.580-0.580-0.279-0.279-0.111-0.111-0.059-0.059v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.059 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3758
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5026
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.7563
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4473
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8210
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3805
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7744
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2205
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3210
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.2487
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8036
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.076 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.17e-5 · top T=2.00h (25.9%) · top-3 cover 61.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.6e-41.2e-48.0e-54.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.98e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.98e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.82e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.82e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.40e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.40e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.54e-4 · 24.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.54e-4 · 24.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.00e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.00e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.66e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.66e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.14e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.14e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.71e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.71e-5 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.92e-5 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.02e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.02e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.09e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.09e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.61e-4 · 25.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.61e-4 · 25.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 25.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.204e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-25.32×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -16.04400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.007
annualized -16.04
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -18.84σ ann 74% · Sortino -14.94 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2261%-1791%-1321%-851%-381%89%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)74.4%Ann. vol σ-1883.9%Sharpe (ann)-1493.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.6681.7071.7471.7871.8261.866t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:27:57 UTC
Snapshot age
421ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:27:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ddce5b789852a686cf73a22ab0c16a4845d85b3aaa36d45f826bb20c36db75a4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$2.10K
bid $1.87K · ask $231
Depth within 5bp
$2.80K
bid $2.09K · ask $709
Depth within 10bp
$4.89K
bid $3.39K · ask $1.51K
Depth within 50bp
$49.78K
bid $29.38K · ask $20.40K
Mid price
1.736650
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.182
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.539
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-render/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K1.73722.95bp1.73764FILLED
BUY$10.00K1.738812.64bp1.739713FILLED
BUY$100.00K1.739516.34bp1.740920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K1.73660.29bp1.73661FILLED
SELL$10.00K1.734910.25bp1.733312FILLED
SELL$100.00K1.733120.40bp1.730320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-render/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$1.0000–$2.0000★25$1.02M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-render/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.303 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$336.47K
real volume
Sell weight
$628.97K
real volume
Net delta
$292.49K
sellers net
Imbalance
-30.30%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
30.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-render/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.16% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 15:00:00Z4.0h1.8060→1.74893.162%5
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z3.0h1.7858→1.73662.755%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h1.7877→1.76021.538%3

/api/asset/hl-render/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
74.42%
σ per bar = 0.000325
Mean return (annualised)
-1401.95%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-18.84
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
3.17%
peak 1.79 → trough 1.74 over 1954 bars

/api/asset/hl-render/risk · same metrics, JSON